Recent polling North Carolina has been all over the place, with SUSA showing a huge McCain bounce, and PPP showing things stable. As I pondered that yesterday, I wrote:
I'm glad to know that Daily Kos will be publishing its latest Research 2000 poll of NC tomorrow. More like SUSA, or more like PPP?
Well, sorry to say, our R2K poll came out looking more like SUSA:
Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 9/8-10. Likely voters. MoE 4% (7/28-30 results)
Dole (R) 48 (50)
Hagan (D) 42 (42)
There had been a rash of polls, following Hagan's first ad blitz showing the Democrat reaching parity or taking the lead. But Dole has been fighting back, and seems to have retaken the narrow lead.
In the governor's race;
Perdue (D) 42
McCrory (R) 47
This looks like the recent SUSA numbers, which had the race 49-41 in favor of the Republican, as opposed to local pollster PPP, which has it 41 Purdue, 40 McCrory.
Now on the presidential side of things, R2K gives us this:
McCain (R) 55 (47)
Obama (D) 38 (43)
SUSA had it 58-38, so R2K seems to validate the SUSA results. However, PPP, which had the race 48-44 McCain, now has support from _Republican_ polling firm Civitas Institute, which gives McCain a narrow 47-44, as well as Democratic pollster Garin-Hart-Yang, which has it McCain 49, Obama 46.
That's quite a disparity, with multiple pollsters supporting the others' results. If you are an optimist, go with the three better looking polls. If you are a pessimist, go with SUSA and R2K. If you are a realist, realize we're behind no matter who you look at, and redouble your efforts to elect Democrats this fall.
NORTH CAROLINA POLL RESULTS - SEPTEMBER 2008
The Research 2000 North Carolina Poll was conducted from September 8 through September 10, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the ?true? figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
Sample Figures:
Men 284 48%
Women 316 52%
Dem 263 44%
Rep 216 35%
Ind 121 21%
18-29 109 18%
30-44 204 34%
45-59 174 29%
60+ 113 19%
White 433 72%
Black 126 21%
Other 41 7%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Kay Hagan? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):
Very Very No
Fav Fav Unfav Unfav Opinion
All 16% 40% 23% 10% 11%
Men 14% 36% 27% 12% 11%
Women 18% 44% 19% 8% 11%
Dem 23% 54% 12% 5% 6%
Rep 7% 22% 38% 18% 15%
Ind 16% 42% 21% 7% 14%
18-29 18% 43% 18% 6% 15%
30-44 14% 38% 26% 14% 8%
45-59 15% 39% 24% 10% 12%
60+ 16% 40% 24% 10% 10%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Elizabeth Dole? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):
Very Very No
Fav Fav Unfav Unfav Opinion
All 20% 39% 20% 16% 5%
Men 23% 42% 17% 14% 4%
Women 17% 36% 23% 18% 6%
Dem 11% 26% 34% 27% 2%
Rep 33% 53% 8% 5% 1%
Ind 19% 40% 12% 11% 18%
18-29 16% 34% 24% 19% 7%
30-44 23% 43% 16% 14% 4%
45-59 22% 41% 18% 15% 4%
60+ 19% 38% 22% 16% 5%
QUESTION: If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Kay Hagan, the Democrat, or Elizabeth Dole, the Republican?
Dole Hagan Other Undecided
All 48% 42% 4% 6%
Men 53% 38% 5% 4%
Women 43% 46% 3% 8%
Dem 18% 73% 4% 5%
Rep 87% 6% 2% 5%
Ind 46% 39% 7% 8%
White 65% 27% 6% 2%
Black 4% 83% 0% 13%
Other 6% 73% 0% 21%
18-29 42% 50% 3% 5%
30-44 52% 38% 6% 4%
45-59 51% 39% 5% 5%
60+ 47% 41% 3% 9%
Ral/Dur 43% 48% 6% 3%
Charlotte 52% 37% 3% 8%
Green/WS 54% 36% 2% 8%
QUESTION: If the election for Governor were held today, would you vote for Beverly Perdue, the Democrat, or Pat McCrory, the Republican?
McCrory Perdue Other Undecided
All 47% 42% 3% 8%
Men 51% 39% 4% 6%
Women 43% 45% 2% 10%
Dem 15% 75% 3% 7%
Rep 86% 4% 1% 9%
Ind 49% 38% 5% 8%
White 63% 26% 4% 7%
Black 5% 84% 0% 11%
Other 8% 81% 0% 11%
18-29 40% 49% 2% 9%
30-44 51% 38% 5% 6%
45-59 50% 39% 4% 7%
60+ 47% 42% 2% 9%
Ral/Dur 44% 48% 4% 4%
Charlotte 51% 36% 2% 11%
Green/WS 49% 36% 2% 13%
QUESTION: If the election for President were held today, would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin, or another candidate?
McCain Obama Other Undecided
All 55% 38% 3% 4%
Men 59% 34% 4% 3%
Women 51% 42% 2% 5%
Dem 23% 69% 2% 6%
Rep 91% 4% 2% 3%
Ind 62% 31% 6% 1%
White 74% 21% 4% 1%
Black 6% 87% 0% 7%
Other 9% 71% 0% 20%
18-29 47% 49% 1% 3%
30-44 61% 34% 4% 1%
45-59 57% 36% 4% 3%
60+ 55% 34% 2% 9%
Ral/Dur 49% 43% 4% 4%
Charlotte 60% 34% 3% 3%
Green/WS 62% 33% 1% 4%