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Recent polling North Carolina has been all over the place, with SUSA showing a huge McCain bounce, and PPP showing things stable. As I pondered that yesterday, I wrote:

I'm glad to know that Daily Kos will be publishing its latest Research 2000 poll of NC tomorrow. More like SUSA, or more like PPP?

Well, sorry to say, our R2K poll came out looking more like SUSA:

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 9/8-10. Likely voters. MoE 4% (7/28-30 results)

Dole (R) 48 (50)
Hagan (D) 42 (42)

There had been a rash of polls, following Hagan's first ad blitz showing the Democrat reaching parity or taking the lead. But Dole has been fighting back, and seems to have retaken the narrow lead.

In the governor's race;

Perdue (D) 42
McCrory (R) 47

This looks like the recent SUSA numbers, which had the race 49-41 in favor of the Republican, as opposed to local pollster PPP, which has it 41 Purdue, 40 McCrory.

Now on the presidential side of things, R2K gives us this:

McCain (R) 55 (47)
Obama (D) 38 (43)

SUSA had it 58-38, so R2K seems to validate the SUSA results. However, PPP, which had the race 48-44 McCain, now has support from _Republican_ polling firm Civitas Institute, which gives McCain a narrow 47-44, as well as Democratic pollster Garin-Hart-Yang, which has it McCain 49, Obama 46.

That's quite a disparity, with multiple pollsters supporting the others' results. If you are an optimist, go with the three better looking polls. If you are a pessimist, go with SUSA and R2K. If you are a realist, realize we're behind no matter who you look at, and redouble your efforts to elect Democrats this fall.

NORTH CAROLINA POLL RESULTS - SEPTEMBER 2008

The Research 2000 North Carolina Poll was conducted from September 8 through September 10, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the ?true? figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.


Sample Figures:

Men       284       48%
Women     316       52%

Dem       263       44%
Rep       216       35%
Ind       121       21%

18-29     109       18%
30-44     204       34%
45-59     174       29%
60+       113       19%

White     433       72%
Black     126       21%
Other      41        7%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Kay Hagan? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):

         Very      Very       No
         Fav       Fav       Unfav     Unfav     Opinion

All       16%       40%       23%       10%       11%

Men       14%       36%       27%       12%       11%
Women     18%       44%       19%        8%       11%

Dem       23%       54%       12%        5%        6%
Rep        7%       22%       38%       18%       15%
Ind       16%       42%       21%        7%       14%

18-29     18%       43%       18%        6%       15%
30-44     14%       38%       26%       14%        8%
45-59     15%       39%       24%       10%       12%
60+       16%       40%       24%       10%       10%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Elizabeth Dole? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):

         Very      Very       No
         Fav       Fav       Unfav     Unfav     Opinion

All       20%       39%       20%       16%        5%

Men       23%       42%       17%       14%        4%
Women     17%       36%       23%       18%        6%

Dem       11%       26%       34%       27%        2%
Rep       33%       53%        8%        5%        1%
Ind       19%       40%       12%       11%       18%

18-29     16%       34%       24%       19%        7%
30-44     23%       43%       16%       14%        4%
45-59     22%       41%       18%       15%        4%
60+       19%       38%       22%       16%        5%


QUESTION: If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Kay Hagan, the Democrat, or Elizabeth Dole, the Republican?

         Dole      Hagan     Other     Undecided

All       48%       42%        4%        6%

Men       53%       38%        5%        4%
Women     43%       46%        3%        8%

Dem       18%       73%        4%        5%
Rep       87%        6%        2%        5%
Ind       46%       39%        7%        8%

White     65%       27%        6%        2%
Black      4%       83%        0%       13%
Other      6%       73%        0%       21%

18-29     42%       50%        3%        5%
30-44     52%       38%        6%        4%
45-59     51%       39%        5%        5%
60+       47%       41%        3%        9%

Ral/Dur   43%       48%        6%        3%
Charlotte 52%       37%        3%        8%
Green/WS  54%       36%        2%        8%


QUESTION: If the election for Governor were held today, would you vote for Beverly Perdue, the Democrat, or Pat McCrory, the Republican?

         McCrory   Perdue    Other     Undecided

All       47%       42%        3%        8%

Men       51%       39%        4%        6%
Women     43%       45%        2%       10%

Dem       15%       75%        3%        7%
Rep       86%        4%        1%        9%
Ind       49%       38%        5%        8%

White     63%       26%        4%        7%
Black      5%       84%        0%       11%
Other      8%       81%        0%       11%

18-29     40%       49%        2%        9%
30-44     51%       38%        5%        6%
45-59     50%       39%        4%        7%
60+       47%       42%        2%        9%

Ral/Dur   44%       48%        4%        4%
Charlotte 51%       36%        2%       11%
Green/WS  49%       36%        2%       13%


QUESTION: If the election for President were held today, would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin, or another candidate?

         McCain    Obama     Other     Undecided

All       55%       38%        3%        4%

Men       59%       34%        4%        3%
Women     51%       42%        2%        5%

Dem       23%       69%        2%        6%
Rep       91%        4%        2%        3%
Ind       62%       31%        6%        1%

White     74%       21%        4%        1%
Black      6%       87%        0%        7%
Other      9%       71%        0%       20%

18-29     47%       49%        1%        3%
30-44     61%       34%        4%        1%
45-59     57%       36%        4%        3%
60+       55%       34%        2%        9%

Ral/Dur   49%       43%        4%        4%
Charlotte 60%       34%        3%        3%
Green/WS  62%       33%        1%        4%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 02:14 PM PDT.

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