Obama is losing Ohio and contrary to Mr. Plouffe’s assertion that Obama can win without Ohio history indicates otherwise.
There are at least three issues that lead me to believe that the Obama campaign does not grasp the situation in Ohio.
- Unreliable polling
- No organized presence in Southern Ohio
- No attack strategy against Palin/McCain coupled with a lack of defense of the Obama central theme of change.
If one believes the polling in Ohio Obama is in a neck and neck race with Palin/McCain to win the state. Additionally it must be remembered that Obama has yet to win over the support of middle of the road Ohioans or solidify the support of Hillary Clinton’s constituents post primary. Recall that Obama was handily beaten by Clinton in the Ohio primary.
While the polling is close I believe it is far worse than the numbers reflect given social apprehension of middle of the road uncommitted respondents to appear racist by not supporting Obama. There has been much speculation across America regarding this phenomenon and as such can impact the accuracy of polling by at least 5 points. Thus instead of being down in Ohio by 3 or 4 points I would argue that for planning purposes the working assumption should indicate that Obama is down in Ohio by roughly 10 points. That’s a lot of ground to make up in less than 60 days, and as such there must be an aggressive offense to cover such a distance.
The Obama campaign has no organized presence in Southern Ohio; southern Ohio defined as south of Interstate 70 which runs east west and loosely divides the state in half both geographically and culturally. The Obama campaign’s focus of effort is evident in the traditionally Democratic strongholds of northeast Ohio, the Cleveland area and Mahoning Valley, in addition to Franklin County/Columbus in the center of the state.
Certainly these are densely populated areas with huge numbers of Democratic constituents, however, they voted for Clinton in the primary, and even if they have increased the registered democrats in these areas the state still can not be won without a majority of the independent hardscrabble rural voter spread throughout southern Ohio from West Virginia to Indiana. Focusing on Columbus, Cleveland, and Dayton is like campaigning in California; it feels good but we’ve already won there.
Southern Ohio is made up of rural people who make judgments based on the recommendation of close friends and family or personal experience. While TV and radio play a supporting role its impact is not decisive and in order to cover Southern Ohio completely one has to buy into roughly 7 media markets.
In other words one has to spend a tremendous amount of money to reach a sparsely but indispensable population spread throughout a region of the country that is not well understood by “outsiders” in order to win the state and therefore the White House. Outsiders is defined as someone who grew up 20 miles away.
This hardscrabble population that largely has a self reliant history that predisposes itself to apparently vote against its economic self interests values perhaps one quality in a person above all others; a fighting spirit. Given McCain’s recent selection of Governor Palin as his running mate it’s clear the Republicans understand the dynamic in not only Southern Ohio but like minded communities throughout rural America.
The Palin/McCain ticket reflects a course of action on the part of the Republican party that deftly understands both the strengths and weaknesses of the Democratic ticket and aggressively attacks both. The only antidote for such an assault is a comprehensive and aggressive personal attack on the Republican ticket focusing on how the personal lives of Palin/McCain evidence their personal unreliability and therefore their lack of character and values to lead America coupled with an aggressive defense of the Democratic central theme of Change.
Both elements of strategy, an offensive and defensive plan appear to be absent in Southern Ohio.
The solution rests with local surrogates on the ground spreading the attack face to face coupled with an air campaign via radio and TV.
The message is simple and the professionals can refine it but essentially it should contain these elements:
"Sarah Palin? Can't keep her solemn oath of devotion to her husband and had sex with his employee. Sarah Palin? Accidentally got pregnant at age 43 and the tax payers of Alaska have to pay for the care of her disabled child. Sarah Palin? Unable to teach her 16 year old daughter right from wrong and now another teenager is pregnant. Sarah Palin? Can you trust Sarah Palin and her values with America's future? John McCain? Divorced from his first wife one month and marries a billionaire influence peddler and convicted felon. John McCain, a record of rash and impulsive decisions. That’s not change that’s more of the same.”
Like it or not the path to the White House requires paying the Ohio Toll, and traipsing around Columbus or Cleveland and preaching to the converted is no substitute, and for that matter nor is duck hunting with Governor Strickland; See John Kerry, 2004.