I'd hoped to go to the Obama rally here in Charlotte today, but didn't sleep well last night--and since I work nights, I'm not willing to chance it. But I'm comforted by the news that according to Public Policy Polling, Obama has finally caught McCain in North Carolina. A poll released last night shows the race in a flat-footed tie at 46 percent apiece. One thing is demonstrably obvious from this poll--Obama has finally smashed through the southern portion of McCain's firewall.
Granted, this is a partisan Democratic poll, but it's consistent with a CNN/Opinion Research poll showing McCain only up one. And it also appears to validate Survey USA's poll showing Obama up six in Virginia. Even more significantly, North Carolina is one state that potentially could have been locked up with the Palin pick.
All this adds up to an ominous, ominous scenario for McCain.
Electorally, it's simple. While McCain could have mathematically survived the loss of Virginia, if McCain loses both North Carolina AND Virginia, there is literally NO scenario under which McCain gets to 270. Assuming that we lose Michigan and New Hampshire, but flip Iowa and New Mexico (Iowa has definitely flipped and New Mexico is close to it), you get this math:
McCain: Other Bush states (246)+Michigan (17)+New Hampshire (4)=267
Obama: Other Kerry states (231)+Iowa (7)+New Mexico (5)+Virginia (13)+North Carolina (15)=271
Even this scenario isn't politically realistic, as flipping North Carolina more than likely means we've held the Kerry states and flipped Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado. In other words, flip North Carolina and at a minimum you're looking at a 301-237 Obama win.
Maybe there is something to the theory around here that McCain hasn't opened any dedicated offices down here because if he loses North Carolina, he's lost the election. While he's just announced the opening of 14 new offices across the state, it looks like they're all "Victory Offices" run in conjunction with the state Republican Party. Still no dedicated offices at all to Obama's 31. And even without this to consider, in order to play adequate defense in North Carolina, McCain will have to divert resources from Virginia. After all, you really think he can afford to spend significant advertising dollars in Charlotte, the Triangle, the Triad, and DC?
All told, if I'm McCain and I'm looking at this PPP poll, my eyebrows are a good bit in my hairline this morning.