Back in 2004 I did a series of Diary's about The Debates. First I examined debate footage of George W. Bush debating Al Gore in 2000 and diaried about his mannerisms and techniques. The idea was to simply make some honest observations to see if I could get an idea of how Bush was going to act in the 2004 Debates with Kerry. And in at least one instance I hit the nail on the head.
The disadvantage Bush has this time around is that he is not the challenger, but the incumbent. In 2000 Bush was very effective at saying "You've had 7 years!" sighting issues and promises Clinton/Gore didn't quite deliver on.
As anyone who watched the debates that year could tell you, Bush was caught with his pants down. He was so used to being able to take the "reformer" position with Ann Richards and then again with Al Gore that when it came time for his record to be scrutinized he became grumpy, whiny and was literally red in the face.
I want to do the same thing this year with John McCain. I think by observing John McCain's past debates we can get an idea of how he will most likely act in the Debate with Obama on Friday and the ones to follow. The great thing is, in 2004 we didn't have a little website named YouTube.com. Today we do. So instead of VERY LONG detailed descriptions of what happened in the videos I can simply post them for your viewing pleasure and then point out my observations. It should make this whole process a lot more interesting and fun. You'll very quickly notice a theme.
Heres McCain on the Economy...
The thing that really stands out about this video is first off the look of nervous panic when Ron Paul begins to direct a question at John McCain. He tries to hide it with a grin and an eyebrow raise. But it's clear from his body language that he is uncomfortable and nervous. The reason for that panic is that McCain doesn't know anything. You heard him say he wishes interest rates were zero. That would of course mean every investment ever made and every bank account opened would never acquire any additional value. The guy just doesn't know.
There is a wide array of issues that McCain is not very well read on and Obama should use this at every chance he gets. The key to taking advantage of McCain's ignorance is having the facts at your disposal and getting specific. Very specific. Especially any time you're asking a direct question of Senator McCain. No closed ended questions designed to get a yes or no. He likes those questions because they don't require him to think or explain himself. He can just say yes or no and call it straight talk.
In this video McCain was not expecting Paul to ask about a specific agency or group and because McCain had absolutely no idea what the Presidents working group on financial markets is or what it does he was unable to give a proper answer. In fact, at no point in his incoherent ramblings did he say anything which even closely resembled a rational thought. Everyone here is now dumber for having listened to it.
These next two videos go hand in hand. The first begins the same as the one above but is shorter.
The point of showing these two videos is simple. It shows beyond the shadow of a doubt that in the debates when McCain is faced with his own words he simply lies. So any of you who are holding out hope that Obama can pull a John Stewart, quote the many faces of John McCain, call him a flip flopper and that'll be the end of it; I have some bad news for you.
McCain is going to lie through his teeth.
The man has no shame, he will not allow himself to be caught in a flip flop. He will lie lie lie straight to the moderators face just as he did with Tim Russert. And here is where the theme I mentioned begins to emerge with McCain. He makes shit up because he doesn't know, and when he gets caught he accuses you of lying, and then makes up more shit.
To combat this you HAVE to have the facts in your hands and online ready to go. It is not enough to say McCain is a flip flopper and then just sit back and expect it to stick. Obama has to be ready to hit back when McCain lies. He has to be ready to call him on it. Use the goddamn L word (lie) if you have too and then either have the original quote in your hand, or tell the moderator and the people at home where they can go online to find the truth. If you use a BarackObama.com affiliated website be sure to use youtube type video or at the very least source links to credible articles and sources. Or better yet use FactCheck.org whenever possible. They are largely seen as impartial and unbiased by the general public.
The key is to make the post debate story about how McCain lied and lied and lied and Obama called him on it every time. Do not leave it up to the media to correct McCain's bullshit. They won't. They are lazy. They will pretend its a matter of he said/she said and their is no fact or fiction just two sides to every issue. However if Obama does all the work for them and can prove McCain is lying than that becomes the story they'll be more inclined to follow it.
On to the next video you can skip ahead to about the 50 Second Mark passed a question and McCain's vague and irrelevant "answer" about a fairer tax code...
The reason I posted this video was to point out McCain's habit of going off topic. I think this is important because it would be a mistake for Obama to go to the first debate primed only with information about foreign policy and national security. Even though that is what the debate is supposed to be focused on. As you can see in the above video John McCain's brain is unable to stay focused on one topic.
This is not an isolated incident. This is a trait he exhibits over and over again. McCain cannot stay on topic. Because of this tendency to stray off course Obama should attend all three debates fully prepared to address topics of every variety and nature. Being prepared for whatever McCain decides to throw at him will go a long way toward winning these debates.
The next video...
Here we have a case where the Moderator is actually trying to do his job and bring some facts and balance to the discussion by separating the many issues McCain is throwing around while providing the actual quote in full. And yet here is McCain distorting Romney's position despite being faced with the facts and the actual quote.
On top of that McCain is reduced to arguing the the position that even talking about perhaps one day leaving Iraq is the same as supporting a timetable for withdraw. Incredibly stupid and childish but it shows just how twisted McCain's logic becomes in the debates. Expect McCain to act the same way in the debate with Obama when he's caught in a lie. The only way to handle that situation is to face him down the way Romney attempted too in the video above.
Also in this video you will notice McCain is unable to speak legibly. He claims "We" are "waiting in the weeds" when Romney was clearly talking about insurgents. This is a byproduct of McCain's age, coupled with his rage and his inability to think quickly on his feet. I don't believe that will play well in the debates. Remember more people are tuning into this election than ever before and these debates will be the first impression for a lot of voters. It is important Obama comes off looking and sounding Presidential while McCain comes off looking like McCain.
McCain also Filibusters not only Romney but the moderator as well in this video. You can expect him to do the same to Obama. Perhaps it's his status as a former POW and the fact that everyone has kissed his ass since he returned from Vietnam. Or maybe the fact that he's 100+ years old and treats everyone else like children. Perhaps its the fact that he owns 7+ houses and 13 cars and has spent the last 30+ years of his life in a comfy Government job. Whatever the reason is McCain has no respect for anyone. He seems to think he's better than everyone and can ignore the rules, rudely interrupt people and talk over everybody because he's John McCain.
This next video is short and informative....
Once again we see the inability to stay on topic. But furthermore we see a sort of vindictive personality. This is a guy who thinks he is entitled to the presidency, and you see that here with his smug little jabs at Romney's flip flops. Make no mistake McCain is a grumpy, nasty old man with a terrible temperament. It is this temperament that keeps McCain from staying focused on one issue. Once he gets angry he will go off on whatever tangent his anger takes him on. So look for that.
Now lets take a look back in time to the year 2000, back when McCain had it together a little better.
Expect more rhetoric like that last line directed at Alan Keyes. This sort of condescending "I was a POW so I know everything." attitude on top of his double standard on abortion is once again typical of McCain. And if you read his body language it once again screams anger. Now since I cannot stand to watch anymore of this man lets stop with the videos for a bit and move on to some ideas on how Obama can deal with this Oscar the Grouch type character in the debates.
First, as I said before Obama needs to have the facts at his finger tips, McCain likes to pull things out of his pocket and say "Well look at this" Obama needs to be able to do the same. He needs to have facts and figures ready to go either on his website, linking to factcheck.org, or in his hand with specific dates and ads to site. The goal of which is to paint McCain as a serial liar and create a post debate narrative that revolves around McCain's many errors and lies.
Second, once again Obama needs to face down McCain and look Presidential doing it when McCain tries to talk over, interrupt and filibuster Obama. Obama would be wise to stick to the debate rules as often as possible. He did a pretty good job and making sure he got his side of the story out there during the heated debate moments with Senator Clinton I just hope Obama understands that McCain is about 10 times more likely to break the rules and format of the debate than Clinton ever was.
Third, expect McCain to pull out and recycle every single thing Senator Clinton threw at Obama during the primaries. The fact that McCain's campaign basically told reporters to dig up stories on William Ayers in a recent conference call tells me that is exactly where their campaign is heading. Expect McCain to use Ayers, Louis Farrakhan, Tony Resko, The Bitter Comment and of course Rev. Wright as sort of throw away lines throughout these debates the same way he just sort of passive aggressively bashed Romney on flip flops you can expect him to just sort of throw out a "Well at least I don't hang out with members of the Weather Underground on the weekends" type of comment off hand.
Remember the clock is McCain's biggest enemy at these debates. He will be trying to waste as much time as possible. So what better way to do that than by throwing out distractions like these? It allows him to change the subject, force Obama to reiterate the truth as well as point out that these charges are recycled and have been dealt with and disproved mere months ago. This eats up time and robs Obama of an opportunity to reach out to new voters.
I think Obama has handled these issues in the past effectively but he needs to step it up. Call McCain a liar straight up when he makes these accusations so that anyone who may have not heard these ridiculous lies in the past will see Obama forcefully defending himself and calling McCain out for outright distortions and lies.
Forth, Obama needs zingers. I cannot stress this enough. Why do people watch Nascar? To see the cars crash. Why do people watch political debates? To see one guy verbally pwn (thats a gamer term) the other. Zingers are the key to doing that. Now obviously you don't want an entire night of one liners that make you look like a one dimensional fool. But one or two well placed, well executed zingers can not only steal the headlines but single handedly win the debate.
I don't know why Kerry didn't understand this in 2004 but it's pretty damn obvious if you ask me. People watch a debate to see the fireworks, its the same reason they watch shows like Hardball. They want to see these guys tear each other a new one (metaphorically speaking) and see who can out think the other.
Think about it....
There you go again. You Senator are no Jack Kennedy. Are you better off now than you were four years ago? I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent's youth and inexperience.
Those are but a few of the legendary zingers that have won and forever characterized debates in the past. If Obama comes up with some good lines (and we all know he's great at that) they will be repeated over and over again after the debate and he could very well be crowned the winner on that and that alone.
So with that in mind, Obama should be listening to McCain's stump speech picking out the anecdotes he tells over and over again and coming up with good comebacks just in case McCain uses those anecdotes again at the debates.
Fifth and perhaps most importantly Obama needs to keep his cool while doing whatever he can to push McCain's buttons and provoke an outburst. Whether that means bringing up the Keating 5 Scandal, which I say is fair game if McCain uses William Ayers; or simply contradicting everything McCain says in a manner that doesn't kiss his POW ass. McCain's temper is legendary and if he loses it on National Television, its over for him. He will be done.
And finally if Obama has any big news such as, say an unexpected endorsement from Colin Powell or something similarly headline worthy I would do it late Thursday. Friday will be spent preparing for the debate depriving the press of any comments from Obama on the matter allowing the debate to be the first chance anyone has to ask about it. It would be a great way to steal the thunder and despite Powell's involvement in the Iraq debacle I do not see such an endorsement hurting Obama's chances as he heads into a debate focused on Foreign Policy and National Security.
One of Gores problems was his inability to fight back when Bush attacked him. Kerry's weakness was his inability to make his stances clear, different to Bush's and forceful. Obama's performance will be judged on whether or not he can remain composed and match John McCain blow for blow in the big leagues.
Make us proud!