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Every State. Every race. Right here.

This is number 41 in a planned series of 50 entries between now and November, looking at each of the 50 states in terms of every race on that state's ticket--Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, House, State legislatures--the whole Space Needle! Special attention paid to identifying and promoting the most important contests per state.

We turn back to my native Pacific Northwest today, with a look at the last Pacific state in this series—Washington State!

http://www.nationalatlas.com/...

Washington is a lot like Oregon politically, in that it has a large, booming, urban, liberal presence to the west, and a thinly populated, politically backwards constituency to the east.  Fortunately, Oregon has 4/5 of the population (though a minority of the geography) on the blue side, and Washington has 7/9 of the population on the blue side.  We’re doing fine, here, as evidenced by the bluing of the entire Pacific Coast map (and 73 total votes to the Democratic nominee for President) within a minute after the polls close every election night.

BLOGS:  Washington’s entry in the 50-state blog project is the very progressive Washblog.

http://www.washblog.com/

PRESIDENT: :  Beyond Safe Obama. McCain isn’t even bothering here.

SENATE:  Two great Democrats, Patty Murray and Maria Cantwell, neither of whom are facing the voters this time around.

GOVERNORS AND OTHER STATEWIDE:  Republicans came dangerously close to winning in 2004, and whined like crybabies about it afterwards. This year they say they have a chance to take it again. However, this is a safe seat for incumbent Democrat Christine Gregoire. The difference between now and then is that Gregoire is now an incumbent with four years of being great for Washington under her belt. Republicans don’t understand the concept of good government, and believe the only purpose of political power is to line one’s own pockets and to destroy infrastructure to prove that Government can’t do anything.  Some day they’ll figure out that that isn’t what the people want.

Here’s Gregoire’s site, and that of her Lt. Governor, Brad Owen:
http://www.chrisgregoire.com/
http://www.ltgov.wa.gov/

Also, here are the sites for other Statewide Democrats. Go team!

Jason Osgood, Secretary of State:
http://www.jasonosgood.com/

Jim McIntyre, State Treasurer:
http://www.jimmcintire.com/

Brian Sonntag (Inc), State auditor:
http://www.sonntag2008.com/

John Ladenburg, Attorney General
http://www.ladenburg.org/
Peter Goldmark, Commissioner of Public Lands:
http://petergoldmark.com/

Mike Kriedler (Inc), Insurance Commissioner.
http://www.mikekreidler.com/

STATE LEGISLATURE:  Washington has 49 general districts, each of which elects one State Senator and two State Representatives.

Lower House: 63D, 35R. Majority 28.  A safe lawmaking body for Team Blue.

Senate: 32D, 17R. Majority 15.  As of 2004 the body was just about tied, and look how far we’ve come! Good job, Washington!

CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS:

District 1—North of Seattle, and solid, solid blue.. Jay Inslee (D) is safe.

District 2—Up at the Canada Border, including Everett and Bellingham. A swing district on paper, that the Republicans tried their best to compete in in 2006, without making a dent.  This year, a safe seat for Democrat Rick Larsen.

District 3—SW Washington, along the OR border near Portland. A safe blue district for Democrat Brian Baird.

District 4—Central WA, including Yakima. On the map, due to the ethical problems of GOP incumbent Doc Hastings, but a longshot. Our candidate is attorney George Fearing.

http://www.georgefearing.com/

District 5—East Washington, including Spokane. A better district for Democrats than the 4th, and the district of former House Speaker Tom Foley. Mark Mays is a late entrant who lags badly in the fundraising.  This is one of the districts we need to keep relentlessly hammering on if we want to achieve a long-term majority.

http://www.votemarkmays.com/

District 6—Tacoma. Safe Dem for Incumbent Norm Dicks.

District 7—Seattle. I’ll include Incumbent Dem Jim McDermott’s link, not because he’s in any trouble, but because he kicks ass. One of the best progressives in Congress.  Back in the pre-Newt days, when the Democrats were waffling and dithering about the Clinton health plan v. the Clement health plan, McDermott was the voice in the wilderness calling for Canadian style single payer health care.  If the other Democrats had listened to him, the Newtists might not have taken over. McDermott is also second only to Kucinich in hammering on the case for Bush impeachment.

http://www.mcdermottforcongress.com/

District 8—East of Seattle, including Bellvue. THE BIG ONE for Washington 2008.

If you don’t know about Democratic rock star Darcy Burner, then welcome to Daily Kos—it’s obvious you haven’t been here before. I’m only one in a long, long line of Kosters who are totally, utterly smitten with our Darcy. She’s one of us—a super progressive, a former Microsoft professional, and a genius who has done a better job responding to the Republican noise machine from the outside than many Democratic Representatives have done from the inside. She’s blogged here on Kos. She’s done ads with John Tester. She made the promise to uphold the 4th Amendment while everyone from Obama to Pelosi was caving in on FISA.

WE NEED DARCY BURNER.

If I was told that Democrats could only flip one district this year, I’d have to pick WA-08. Even over Anne Barth and Dennis Shulman. She’s that good.

She’s also about 5 points behind in most recent polls. That’s bad, but still close enough to win, if we give her the loving she needs. Please donate here:

http://www.darcyburner.com/

Trust me on this. Burner will do us proud like no other politician in contention today, if only we get her in the door.

District 9—South of Seattle. A safe seat for Incumbent Democrat Adam Smith (no, not the Invisible Hand of the Market guy; a living person. Even Seattle has not yet gotten around to electing zombies).

REDISTRICTING WASHINGTON:  It’s all moot here, since Washington is redistricted by a nonpartisan commission.  Washington may or may not gain a district come 2011. If it stays at 9, I would split the existing 7th into quadrants, giving one part each to the 1st, 7th, 8th and 9th, creating four solid blue districts, one of which will be safe for Darcy Burner.

I’d also compact the 5th as much as possible, giving it Pasco and Walla Walla to the South, and taking the thinly populated Northern Counties out. It may even be possible to make a Spokane-Yakima district with an odd shape and put ALL of the Red rural land into the 4th.  

But like I said, it’s all moot. We don’t get to run the table regardless.

Previous diaries in this series, including THE BIG ONE for each state:

Delaware(lower house of the State Legislature): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Arkansas(Obama, for want of any other contest): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Illinois(Dan Seals, IL-10): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Texas, Part One(Michael Skelly, TX-07):  http://www.dailykos.com/...

Texas, Part Two(Rick Noriega, TX-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Utah(building infrastructure): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Massachusetts(Using our majority to govern well): http://www.dailykos.com/...

North Carolina(Kay Hagan, NC-Sen):  http://www.dailykos.com/...

Hawaii(Using our majority to govern well; also, preparation for Governor, possible open Senate race in 2010): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Mississippi(Ronnie Musgrove, MS-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Oregon(Jeff Merkley, OR-Sen):  http://www.dailykos.com/...

Ohio(Tie: Obama, and State Legislature, both houses): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Maryland(Frank Kratovil, MD-01): http://www.dailykos.com/...

North Dakota(State Legislature, upper house): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Alabama(Bobby Bright, AL-02): http://www.dailykos.com/...

California, Part one(Charles Brown, CA-04): http://www.dailykos.com/...

California, Part two(Russ Warner, CA-26): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Vermont(Gaye Symington, VT-Gov):  http://www.dailykos.com/...

Iowa(Rob Hubler, IA-05): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Virginia(Obama): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Wyoming(Gary Trauner, WY-AL): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Pennsylvania (State Legislature, both houses): http://www.dailykos.com/...

New Mexico(Harry Teague, NM-02): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Kentucky(Bruce Lunsford, KY-SEN): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Nebraska(Scott Kleeb, NB-SEN): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Friggin’ IDAHO (Larry LaRocco, ID-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Maine (CHEERS to Tom Allen, ME-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Wisconsin (State Legislature, both houses): http://www.dailykos.com/...

New Jersey(Linda Stender, NJ-07): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Oklahoma (Andrew Rice, OK-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...

South Dakota(State Legislature, upper house): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Colorado(Obama): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Georgia(Jim Martin, GA-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Rhode Island(governing well): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Michigan(State legislature, upper house): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Alaska(Mark Begich, AK-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Missouri (Jay Nixon, MO-Gov): http://www.dailykos.com/...

West Virginia (GORGEOUS Anne Barth, WV-02): http://www.dailykos.com/...

South Carolina (Linda Ketner, SC-01, Rob Miller, SC-02): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Nevada (Jill Derby, NV-02): http://www.dailykos.com/...

New York, Part One (State Senate): http://www.dailykos.com/...

New York, Part Two(State Senate): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Tennessee (State Senate): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Originally posted to AdmiralNaismith on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 07:58 AM PDT.

Poll

McCain's cowardly excuse for ducking debates

6%2 votes
9%3 votes
6%2 votes
28%9 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
3%1 votes
3%1 votes
9%3 votes
6%2 votes
9%3 votes
6%2 votes
3%1 votes
9%3 votes

| 32 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  Washington isn't the most interesting (3+ / 0-)

    state, politically, but still important to cover.

    •  50 means 50. (4+ / 0-)

      I'm doing them all.

      So far the most boring ones are the most solidly blue states like Rhode Island, for which being boring to cover is a GOOD thing, because everything is so safely Democratic that there's nothing much to say.  

      REPUBLICANS: The Older White Meat.

      by AdmiralNaismith on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 08:02:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  And besides... (0+ / 0-)

        ...WA-08 really is one of the most interesting House races in the nation. It's the one adopted by more Kosters than any other, and the one I would choose if we could flip only one district.

        REPUBLICANS: The Older White Meat.

        by AdmiralNaismith on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 08:06:27 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  And it's going to be tough (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          AdmiralNaismith, sardonyx

          I took a drive around Medina the other day.  Chilling.  Lots of McCain/Palin signs.  Even one Mansion with a McCain banner over their port-cochere entrance.  Reichert signs everywhere.  I hope the blue folk just aren't putting money into stickers and signs because I saw pretty much none in Medina/Clyde Hill or on Mercer Island.  In the less fabulously wealthy bits of the 8th, there are plenty of great signs for Darcy.  But I'm worried about the super-wealthy in this District voting their fears of taxes.  

      •  politically backwards? (0+ / 0-)

        Some of those eastern Washington residents might resent that characterization.

        If they could ever find that "Any" key so they can log on, that is...

        You've got to do your own growing, no matter how tall your grandfather was. - Irish Proverb

        by Turbonerd on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 10:56:13 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Tips, Recs and Elitist Blue State Lattes (6+ / 0-)

    Did You Know....Seattle has a SPACE NEEDLE!!!

    I saw a mural in Seattle showing a panorama of the city, and it had about three Space Needles in it. They were about three times the height of the actual one compared to all the other buildings in the mural, too.

    REPUBLICANS: The Older White Meat.

    by AdmiralNaismith on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 08:00:52 AM PDT

  •  oops didn't mean to jump your tip jar (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    AdmiralNaismith

    sorry about that

  •  You're remarkably blithe about the Governor (4+ / 0-)

    contest, given that three of the last four polls have Rossi ahead of Gregoire. (Tuesday's SUSA was a nice change back, with a 50-48 in Gregoire's favor.)

    However, it is a very close race, with Rossi polling at least 48% since mid-August, so to call it a safe seat takes overoptimism to a new height. With Gregoire so anemic in these polls, it looks like Washington—or at least those parts of it being called by pollsters—aren't as appreciative of Gregoire's greatness as they ought.

    I very much hope that Gregoire wins, but rose-colored glasses won't get her there. I hope to hell her campaign is fighting tooth and nail for every vote.

    © sardonyx; all rights reserved

    by sardonyx on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 08:18:13 AM PDT

    •  Well, it ain't out of the woods completely (0+ / 0-)

      But with an Obama wipeout likely in the state and Burner pumping out Democratic turnout in the all-important 8th District, Rossi's infantile sore loser act four years ago, and Gregoire a popular incumbent this time around, I can't fathom this solid blue state going Republican at all in 2008. They haven't had a Republican Governor since I started keeping track, and the trends have been bluer and bluer with every election cycle.

      By all means work for it, but there are NO grounds for panic.  

      Seems to me, the best way to help Gregoire is to go to the mat for Darcy Burner, and to some extent, George Fearing. If the 8th gets a bigger Democratic than Republican turnout, it's all over.

      REPUBLICANS: The Older White Meat.

      by AdmiralNaismith on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 08:27:23 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  the Elway poll (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sardonyx, ThePrometheusMan

      Elway is the closest thing in Washington to California's Field poll ... the wisest and most accurate pollster around.  Here's an analysis of their most recent gubernatorial poll.

      Because of Washington's batshit-crazy "top two" primary law, candidates can choose how they want their party affiliation to be denoted.  Because Rossi desperately wants to dissociate himself from the toxic Republican brand, he lists himself as "G.O.P. Party".  Elway split its poll sample, with half asked about Gregoire against "Republican" Rossi, half against "G.O.P" Rossi.  Big difference based on the brand name -- 50-41 against the Republican, 48-44 against the G.O.P.

      The way to win is not to move to the right wing; the way to win is to move to the right policy. -- Nameless Soldier

      by N in Seattle on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 10:15:06 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I'm not so sure (3+ / 0-)

    that this is true:

    However, this is a safe seat for incumbent Democrat Christine Gregoire. The difference between now and then is that Gregoire is now an incumbent with four years of being great for Washington under her belt.

    SurveyUSA poll 9/23:
    Rossi(R): 48%
    Gregoire(D): 50%

    Strategic Vision poll 9/19:
    Rossi(R): 48%
    Gregoire(D): 46%

    Even though Strategic Vision tends to lean Republican, things aren't as safe for Gregoire as the statement claims. We are looking another very close gubernatorial race in WA. I see many more Rossi signs and bumper stickers in Pierce County/Tacoma, (2nd most populous county) than Gregoire.

    Pierce County will be the major battleground county for Gregoire. It went for Rossi in 2004, just barely, but for Kerry nationaly. Odd, huh?

    I think the reason this county verges on red is that there is a huge military/retired military population here.  

    John McCain: Country Club First!

    by Batbird on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 08:37:58 AM PDT

  •  a few correctives (3+ / 0-)

    Brad Owen is absolutely NOT  Gregoire's heir apparent.  He's a DINO nobody in his final government job.  He has no political future unless Gregoire takes a position in the Obama Administration (not likely).  Democratic organizations don't even bother to endorse him, and doesn't even bother to ask for their endorsement.

    We have far too many Republicans in statewide office.  AG Rob McKenna is the most dangerous -- as reactionary as Rossi but even better at hiding it (because he doesn't look like a sleazy, shady real estate pitchman).  Doug Sutherland, Commissioner of Public Lands, is the most defeatable, due to the presence of the immensely-qualified Peter Goldmark.  The retiring Treasurer, another DINO-type, disgusted many of us by endorsing his Republican deputy as his replacement; Jim McIntire, a PhD economist, left a safe seat in the House to run for the office.  I think he can win, but who knows?

    I don't expect much movement in the state legislature.  The big question is whether the leadership, particularly House Speaker Frank Chopp (one of the reps in my own LD), will actually use their majorities to accomplish anything.  We do tend to have an Olympia mindset, much like the Beltway mindset on the national level.

    The way to win is not to move to the right wing; the way to win is to move to the right policy. -- Nameless Soldier

    by N in Seattle on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 10:31:58 AM PDT

  •  I'd say Heinrich in NM-01 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    AdmiralNaismith

    Better progressive than Teague, and better chances to win, too.  Teague's more of a Blue Dog type.  Though if he won, it would be one of those "running the table" things, a best possible case scenario.  So that would be good, too.

    John McCain voted against health care for kids.

    by Land of Enchantment on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 09:32:04 PM PDT

    •  Could be. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Land of Enchantment

      Heinrich is definitely a better Dem than Teague, and Udall is the best of all.

      I picked Teague because his is the more uphill--though still within reach--race, and that his victory would surely make the NM delegation 100% Democratic. Udall will win no matter what, and Heinrich at least leans Dem and is on everyone's radar.

      I made the same call picking NV-02 over NV-03. Both are important, but I'd point special attention at the in-reach tougher nut of the two.

      In Washington, however, the Burner race is the only House district seriously in play. If Fearing or Mays win, it will be as part of a history-making national shakeup not seen since 1976.

      REPUBLICANS: The Older White Meat.

      by AdmiralNaismith on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:45:26 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Check Out Jason Osgood's Ad 'Lost Votes' (0+ / 0-)

    A spoof on the PC versus Mac ads
    JasonOsgood.com

  •  Theres a better blog (0+ / 0-)

    horse's Ass written by Goldy that you see quoted on the fp from time to time.

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