Cross-posted at Facing South -- your source for news, politics and trends in the changing South
THANKS FOR REC'ING THIS DIARY -- This is an important development!
With the election just 39 days away -- and early voting already underway -- both the McCain and Obama campaigns are now tightening up their list of target states. Each side is focusing campaign appearances and advertising dollars only on a handful of battleground states where their teams of analysts have concluded they have a reasonable shot of winning.
And that list, to the surprise of many pundits, seems to include North Carolina. Here's why.
PART I
We reported last week on Obama and McCain's major ad buys in NC. That coincided with a series of campaign stops by Joe Biden, Michelle Obama and Sen. Obama himself.
Now, both Sen. Obama and Biden are planning a major event this Saturday in Greensboro, NC.
Clearly they see something that scores of pundits, who have consistently de-emphasized North Carolina, have not. What's going on here?
Here are a couple factors that I think are making North Carolina the surprise state of 2008:
The Economy: The economy is a big issue in North Carolina -- and due to the Wall Street meltdown and foreclosure crisis, it's getting bigger. NC has seen a recent spike in mass layoffs, losing over 45,000 jobs in the last month and driving the unemployment rate up to almost 7%, the highest since the recession battered the state in 2002.
And as the most recent Public Policy Polling survey -- which found McCain and Obama tied in NC -- noted:
There isn't much doubt about what's driving the level of competitiveness...The number of voters listing the economy as their biggest issue...has now jumped to 58 percent. Barack Obama has a 24 point lead with those voters.
The Barr Factor: Libertarian presidential candidate Bob Barr, the former Congressman from Georgia, will be on the ballot in NC (despite the state's enormously restrictive ballot access laws). But most of the polls that showed double-digit leads for McCain in North Carolina didn't include Barr.
Since August, any poll that has included Barr has shown McCain with no more than a six point advantage, or even put Obama in the lead. The last two polls -- from PPP (Democratic) and Civitas Institute (Republican) -- include Barr, and they show McCain and Obama exactly tied.
Neither of these factors necessarily mean that Obama will end up taking North Carolina. But the fact that the Tarheel State is turning into a fierce battleground, with both sides investing precious time, energy and resources, is historic alone. And the result might be closer than any of us thought.
PART II
NC's status as a key battleground state just jumped a notch today with the release of a Rasmussen Reports poll giving Barack Obama a 2-point lead over John McCain, 49%-47%.
The Rasmussen poll is significant for two reasons. First, as Rasmussen notes (via Under the Dome):
"This is the first time in eight Rasmussen Reports polls that Obama has held any kind of a lead in North Carolina, though the candidates were tied once as well," the pollsters write.
That's especially notable given that in the poll, only 3% of voters said they were voting for "other." As I note above, most polls showing Obama within striking distance of McCain in NC to date have included a third party candidate like Bob Barr.
The Rasmussen survey also supports the idea that the economy is driving Obama's gains in NC. According to that poll, here's how NC voters ranked their top concerns:
46% Economic Issues
22% National Security Issues
9% Fiscal Issues
9% Not sure
7% Domestic Issues
7% Cultural Issues
Today, Under the Dome reports that state agencies are being told they'll have to slash $400 million from their budgets because of the economic recession. As long as the economy remains the front-and-center issue, it works to Obama's favor.
Both campaigns sense the battle is on in NC: McCain's campaign has 9 surrogates working their way through North Carolina; Obama's campaign has 10.
That's not all ... look for Part III to our analysis of why NC is in play, coming soon.
UPDATES: A few quick extras:
(1) The Rasmussen Poll: Here's an interesting item in the Rasmussen poll:
FAVORABLE RATINGS
Rating / McCain / Obama / Biden / Palin
Very Favorable / 32 / 41 / 27 / 38
Somewhat Favorable / 23 / 16 / 26 / 16
Somewhat Unfavorable / 21 / 14 / 20 / 11
Very Unfavorable / 23 / 27 / 21 / 32
Obama and Palin draw strong responses; McCain and Biden luke-warm responses. In an election dependent on ground game, I think that works to Obama's favor.
(2) Obama Ads Targeting Young Voters: The Obama campaign has a slew of new ads out in NC encouraging young voters to register. More details here.
(3) New Voter Registration: How voter reg will affect NC is the focus of my upcoming Part III, but here's a quick snapshot from the comments, courtesy of ajaymay (and amplified with my own number crunching):
CHANGE IN NC VOTER REGISTRATION: JAN 08 - SEPT 08
Democrats +194,000
Republicans +28,500
Unaffiliated +140,000
African American +121,400
Hispanic +15,000
Other +15,000
A key stat: Out of 363,800+ new voter registrations in NC in 2008, 33% of that growth has come from new African-American voter registrations.
(4) The Economy, Redux: Lots of good comments about how the economy is playing out in NC. All other factors being what they are, I think that's the tipping point/opportunity for Obama in NC. Lots of people talking about the gas shortage -- would love to see some polling on how that impacts Obama. Anyone?