The current polling shows an Obama advantage on the economy, but still gives McCain the nod on foreign policy. Tonight's debate is ostensibly about foreign policy (although we all know that there may well be some questions about the economy as well).
If Obama can win the debate tonight and put the "foreign policy" issue to bed, you have to like his chances going into October.
So here's what he needs to say, as often as possible tonight, to make that happen.....
America's security, particularly in a crisis, depends on foreign policy decisions being made calmly and rationally.
Follow me for more detail...
The trad media, the blogs, the entire country, have all seen through McCain's political stunt. His campaign's backtracking makes it clear that he miscalculated grossly.
Without naming McCain by name, Obama can hang this albatross around his neck by pushing ONE IDEA over all others tonight:
America's security, particularly in a crisis, depends on foreign policy decisions being made calmly and rationally.
If that message comes across without any specific finger-pointing, Americans will get its significance: That one of the two Presidential candidates is exactly who you want in a crisis, and the other is a ticking time bomb.
Obama should come back to this theme at the end of every answer:
"...but again, Jim, if I get that phone call at three in the morning, I'm not going to try to solve the crisis by four. I'm going to talk to a few people at the White House and make a reasoned decision. You can't "shoot from the hip" when America's national security is at stake."
"In any foreign policy challenge, it's more important to make the right decision than a hasty decision."
"The best way to deal with any crisis is to lead by example. That means first taking the time to understand the situation and then devising a reasoned response to it in stead of simply knee-jerk reacting to it.
"What America is looking for in its foreign policy is not drama. They are looking for security. They are looking for someone who is as solid as a rock. Likewise, the global community wants to see an America that is stable and consistent, not a country that goes flying off the handle."
Post your own eloquent-yet-subtle digs in the comments below.
If Obama simply reminds people all night what a rash fool McCain has been in the past 48 hours, he'll be well ahead down the homestretch.
Note: Obama will come across as cool in the debate because that's his nature. If he gets questioned about this, he can say, "Jim I know there's a time to be fiery. It's just that, in my experience, that time is behind closed doors. When you're arguing with your wife about whether you or she should ask for a raise, you do it with the bedroom door closed. Not in front of the kids, and certainly not in front of your boss."
BONUS POINTS:
It's okay to make this about Palin too.
"Any foreign policy decisions need to come from the President—he's the one who leads. But those decisions are arrived at by scrutinizing them with your entire team—your diplomats, your Secretary of State, certainly your Vice-President, who has to be well-versed and able to step in if something should happen to you."