McCain probably won the basic, nitty-gritty arguments. But Barack Obama won overall. See Kennedy-Nixon 1960.
This debate was supposed to be on John McCain's turf: he has staked almost his entire candidacy on the idea that Barack Obama is simply not ready to lead this nation in a time of crisis and a time of war. All of McCain's negative ads end with "Obama ready to lead. No." So what John McCain had to do tonight, especially in light of his sinking campaign and his sliding poll numbers, was to make Barack Obama look exactly that: just not ready to lead. He didn't succeed.
If someone who had never heard of either of these men--who knew nothing about their experience or their personalities or their personal attributes, or their parties--read the debate transcript, they'd probably give the debate ever so slightly to McCain, mostly because he was harder on Obama than vice-versa and he seemed slightly more commanding (of course, Obama also had his moments). But, as an entire package, Obama won for two specific reasons.
One: America does not want an angry, dismissive President, especially if they're elderly. This is the land of Franklin Roosevelt, John F. Kennedy, and Ronald Reagan, an optimistic nation, and we want an optimistic, sunny President. And John McCain was neither optimistic nor sunny last night. Of course, Obama wasn't much of either, either, but this doesn't fall on him as much as it falls on McCain, simply because of McCain's age. The fact is, apart from the aforementioned Reagan, America has not elected a man over the age of 65 to the Presidency since James Buchanan in 1856, who served as President immediately before Abraham Lincoln. It's been that long. Reagan broke that tradition because he was optimistic to a point where it made some people wonder just how "there" and aware he really was.
The fact is, America doesn't like grumpy grandpas. Despite his young age, Nixon in 1960 looked like a grumpy grandpa. Bob Dole in 1996 was a grumpy grandpa. Neither of them won (at least in those years, since Nixon ran again in 1968 and was elected). And John McCain seemed like a grumpy grandpa as well, treating Obama like a schoolkid, acting like it was an insult to his intelligence that he even had to debate Obama. And this is a chronic problem of McCain's: he had the same attitude toward George W. Bush in 2000 and toward Mitt Romney in the primaries this year. It's not going to serve him well.
Second, and finally: this was McCain's turf. He needed to send Obama back to school. And he didn't. He may have outperformed Obama slightly, but this was a foreign policy debate. McCain needed to crush Obama, not only because McCain--and the general public--considers foreign policy to be McCain's strong suit, but also because, in light of recent events and recent poll numbers, McCain needed a game-changer. He didn't give us one. Like Kennedy against Nixon in 1960, Obama didn't have to beat McCain: he just had to tie him. He had to make himself look like an acceptable Commander-in-Chief. Not a spectacular one, just an acceptable one. And he did it.
And, now that Obama has neutralized McCain's advantage in foreign policy--the only area where McCain has consistently led Obama in the polls--there is no other debate to have but on the economy. And I think we'll know how that'll turn out.
President Obama. Get used to hearing it, get used to saying it.