If you could put a camera inside whatever part of my brain controls my political thought process, I suspect what would be seen would resemble that cute little graphic so oft posted of late, with the stick figures running about shrieking "ONOZ!" and "OMG!"
But I'm a special kind of Chicken Little; I generally keep my misgivings and portents of doom to myself. I don't trust my gut reactions and my instincts frequently prove why it's a good thing I don't have to rely on them for day-to-day survival. I have OCD and am quite familiar with magical thinking. And lately, I've been fascinated to see it in action on both progressive and wingnut blogs.
Obama seems flat, the polls tick up for McCain and 500 "This is What Obama Should Do - NOW!" diaries appear. And some of the advice is actually pretty good. I have a few opinions of my own on just what the campaign ought to do, but - well, I've only ever worked on one winning campaign before in my life - and it was Barack Obama's senate campaign. So the truth is, while there are a lot of subjects I think I may be better versed in than Barack; running the campaign is definitely not one of them.
But two types of posters typically show up in these diaries. Those who are worried and genuinely upset - and they range from the "FUCK IT THIS IS OVER HE'S LOST" screamers to the quiet crepe hangers, the type of people who carefully give you a "Thinking of you" card instead of a get well card because they have their doubts you will recover.
Then there are the STFU-ers. Labeling every worrier as a troll, making bold pronouncements that Obama will win this thing, I promise you (oh, yeah? Can you tell me who'll come in first at Arlington? Because that would also be useful info). They have a point about morale-drowners; no one needs a steady diet of doom. We need to stay energized and focused and it's hard to do that while immersed in woe and hand wringing.
It almost seems scripted, these conversations. The reassurance seekers make their appearance - "I hope you are right!" "I will be so pissed if McCain gets away with this again!" They are usually young ones, not used to the hard reality of - well, life. Where nothing is certain but uncertainty, and allowing yourself to get caught up in the bi-polar roller coaster that is a presidential campaign is hazardous to the mental health of the fragile.
But here's another interesting thing: On many wingnut blogs, no such dynamic exists. Bad news is rarely reported, and when it appears, it's largely ignored. Facts are re-written, unfavorable polls are completely trashed (with nary a dissenting voice), and the echo chamber is so powerful that, after spending an intense three weeks reading "Free Republic" last winter, I became utterly convinced that Fred Thompson would be the Republican nominee. And I'm a member of the reality - based community! But Wingnut hyperbaric tubes are powerful places and breathing those fumes for a short time does have an impact.
They are certain they are going to win. When the polls look bleak, they remind themselves that the polls are all biased (until one comes out looking good, then that is a good unbiased poll) and besides, there's the Bradley effect. So Obama has to be 6,8, or even 10% ahead just to be even. The more agitated they get the more racist and hateful their rhetoric becomes. It's a fascinating example of magical thinking; a kind of "Pollyanna" meets David Duke. We are right, God is on our side, we cannot lose, if the facts show we are wrong, the facts are wrong.
I'm no expert on matters of psychology. Progressives are badly battered by the nightmare of 2000, the eight years of subsequent misery and hell, and the disgraceful corporate media that is determined to use the false "truthiness" of "balance" to give a lie the same weight as the truth. Right wingers, on the other hand, have seen it all so very differently. The election of 2000 was not stolen, God delivered the nation into the hands of George Bush to save it. Right now, Sarah Palin is being defended as a huge asset to the ticket http://www.freerepublic.com/...
I realize that people who are drawn to right wing ideology see the world in black and white (no pun intended), good guys, bad guys, meanies. Yet for a political party that has embraced fear as it's primary tool, it's fascinating to me that the wingnut blogs refuse to show fear - or doubt - about their candidate. Right up until Fred Thompson dropped out of the race, FReepers were 100% confident he'd win. It was an amazing thing to read. Meanwhile, the slightest bump in the road and progressive bloggers - or a subset of them - are absolutely certain that doom is imminent.
It must be, in part, a function of magical thinking. Are we Chicken Littles taking self-protective action by declaring all is lost? By voicing our worst fears, will we be protected from them materializing? Are the wingnuts whistling past the proverbial graveyard, the coyote running long past the physical edge of the ledge?
So I'm intrigued. What do you think? What accounts for these dynamics? What is the most useful attitude to maintain during tough campaigns? What motivates you, and what drives you crazy?