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With exactly five weeks to go, today brings a rather underwhelming day on the polling front. Color me pessimistic, but I expected this to be a better polling day for Obama than it turned out to have been. I also expected it to be a much more robust day of polling than it has been.

Rather than the deluge of pro-Obama numbers which I expected, we were instead treated to a rather anemic trickle of 17 individual polls, with decidedly mixed results. The tracking polls also failed to give us much guidance as we head into the month of October.

All of the numerical goodness beneath the fold.

PRESIDENTIAL NATIONAL AND TRACKING POLLS

Inexplicably, we have yet another day with relatively few national numbers, apart from the four tracking polls. Only one poll was released late this afternoon, and it is mixed news for the Obama campaign. While the ABC News poll continues to give Obama the lead, that lead is considerably less than last week. ABC has it at 50-46. One week ago, it was 52-43.

Incidentally, the "fifth" tracking poll (GWU/Battleground), which I have never used because it is not a daily poll, apparently shows Obama in the lead. If that seems unremarkable to you, it is worth noting because it is the FIRST time that has happened. Even as Obama led the four major tracking polls by an average of 5 points last week, GWU/Battleground had McCain up 2.

The average of the "Big 4" today was exactly seven percent. The Research 2000 tracking poll has Obama leading by ten, while the other three pollsters all had Obama leading by six points. Gallup gave McCain back a couple of points (although that might be a function of a very good Friday dropping out for the Democrat), while the other three pollsters have Obama up by an additional single point.

PRESIDENTIAL STATE-BY-STATE POLLING

The most disquieting news, from my perspective, was a decidedly mixed set of results in state-by-state polling. Of the nine presidential polls released today, five went in the direction of Obama (vis-a-vis the Pollster trend averages), while four went in the direction of McCain. This is a very different tale than the one told yesterday, when all but one of the state polls went in the direction of Obama.

American Research (ARG) delivers the most stunning blow, releasing a trio of polls in battleground states, all of which gave the narrow lead to the Republicans. PPP gives Florida to the Democrats. They are a Democratic firm, but they have drifted over to the realm of independent polling. Their record in the primaries was solid, but their results drift leftward more often than not. Some late polling giving Obama the lead in both Virginia and Ohio helped to improve the mood.

ARIZONA--Rasmussen: McCain 59%, Obama 38% (McCain)
FLORIDA--PPP: Obama 49%, McCain 46% (Obama)
GEORGIA--SurveyUSA: McCain 52%, Obama 44% (Obama)
INDIANA--SurveyUSA: McCain 48%, Obama 45% (McCain)
NEVADA--American Research: McCain 49%, Obama 47% (McCain)
NORTH CAROLINA--American Research: McCain 49%, Obama 46% (McCain)
OHIO #1--SurveyUSA: McCain 49%, Obama 48% (Obama)
OHIO #2--InsiderAdvantage: Obama 47%, McCain 45%
PENNSYLVANIA--Muhlenberg College: Obama 49%, McCain 41% (Obama)
VIRGINIA #1--American Research: McCain 49%, Obama 46% (Obama)
VIRGINIA #2--InsiderAdvantage: Obama 51%, McCain 45%

NON-PRESIDENTIAL POLLING

The big headline today is a new public poll showing a toss-up in the Georgia Senate race. Given that SurveyUSA also has Obama considerably closer than almost every other recent poll in Georgia, I am smelling a possible outlier. I'd love to see InsiderAdvantage or Rasmussen in here for some confirmation.

Aside from that, we have a couple of favorable internal polls for Democrats, as well as a public poll out of Connecticut that seems to take another member of the Democratic Class of 2006 off of the endangered list.

CT-02--U. of Connecticut: Rep. Joe Courtney (D) 50%, Sean Sullivan (R) 23%
GA-SEN--SurveyUSA: Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) 46%, Jim Martin (D) 44%
IN-GOV--SurveyUSA: Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) 53%, Jill Long Thompson (D) 37%
MI-09--Grove Insight (D): Gary Peters (D) 41%, Rep. Joe Knollenberg (R) 37%
NC-GOV--PPP: Pat McCrory (R) 44%, Beverly Perdue (D) 41%
TN-SEN--Global Strategies (D): Sen. Lamar Alexander (R) 50%, Bob Tuke (D) 38%

Originally posted to Steve Singiser on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 04:15 PM PDT.

Poll

The Holy S&*t Poll For Today (9/30) Is ________.

43%81 votes
7%14 votes
43%81 votes
1%3 votes
2%5 votes
2%4 votes

| 188 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tips, Comments, Recs, Love, Hate... (20+ / 0-)

    Sorry if I sound a bit pessimistic today. I just see the multiplicity of McCain mistakes, and I see the national numbers seem to improve. I am waiting for the translation to the states. The "lagging" indicator argument is losing strength the longer this goes, me thinks.....

    "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
    Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
    Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

    by Steve Singiser on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 04:16:58 PM PDT

    •  Thanks for the analysis. (4+ / 0-)

      The good news is that McCain definitely cannot stop worrying about states he normally shouldn't have to worry about, mainly Virginia and North Carolina. Hopefully now the pundits will stop talking about Pennsylvania as a toss-up.

    •  Why pessamistic on the state numbers? (4+ / 0-)

      take a look:

      ARIZONA--Rasmussen: McCain 59%, Obama 38% (McCain)
      FLORIDA--PPP: Obama 49%, McCain 46% (Obama)
      GEORGIA--SurveyUSA: McCain 52%, Obama 44% (Obama)
      INDIANA--SurveyUSA: McCain 48%, Obama 45% (McCain)
      NEVADA--American Research: McCain 49%, Obama 47% (McCain)
      NORTH CAROLINA--American Research: McCain 49%, Obama 46% (McCain)
      OHIO #1--SurveyUSA: McCain 49%, Obama 48% (Obama)
      OHIO #2--InsiderAdvantage: Obama 47%, McCain 45%
      PENNSYLVANIA--Muhlenberg College: Obama 49%, McCain 41% (Obama)
      VIRGINIA #1--American Research: McCain 49%, Obama 46% (Obama)
      VIRGINIA #2--InsiderAdvantage: Obama 51%, McCain 45%

      Az meh, we are not going to win that one unless it gets very cold in Hell

      Florida, we win, win florida and the rest is moot.
      Georgia, lets just make a dent

      Indiana, flipping heck thats a 14 point shift from 04, Indiana in play

      Nevada, within spitting distance think ground game and we have a hell of a ground game in Nevada

      NC, win this and there is no chance for McCain any place, its close, McCain must be sweating bullets

      Ohio, ground game and split polls, The early voiting will bring this one home

      Pa, winning and going away not even competative

      Va, we win, and a hisoric win at that.

      Why pessamistic? We are holding everything we should hold and kicking but where we need to.  If this were the popular vote picking up Va and Fl would give a win in the electorial collage.  Buck up these are realy good numbers.

      Sarah Palin Proud Socialist

      by Bloke on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 05:01:44 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Because Of This Reason.... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Bloke

        Prior to the conventions, the national numbers had the two candidates essentially even, with Obama holding a lead of maybe 1-3 points, when all were averaged out.

        Now, we see Obama with an average lead of twice that margin. But the state polls are not moving accordingly.

        Furthermore, I fully expected there to be a bigger divergence this week. McCain will not keep having weeks that have been this bad. I expected a LOT MORE separation.

        "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
        Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
        Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

        by Steve Singiser on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 05:27:31 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I share the disappointment in today's polls. (0+ / 0-)

      They are a buzzkill.  I figured the ABC/WP +9 was an outlier, but the one released today was not what I wanted to see.

      The CW and the polling indicated Obama won the debate, that the public blames the R's 2-1 for the financial crisis, McCain suspended his campaign and threatened to kill the debate, Palin continues to FAIL, and on and on and on.

      Gallup dropped from +8 to +6, the DK R2000 went up slightly, and the other major trackers stayed put.

      Not that I think we'll lose, just was hoping to enjoy the last month of the election as opposed to having to sweat another one out.

      Two questions:

      At least as far as the trackers, since they include Sat Sun and Mon.....is the weekend polling a factor here?

      Anybody know when the ABC poll data was collected? It's dated 9/29 and released 9/30.

      It's the fascism, stupid!

      by lastman on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 06:16:49 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  these aren't new national numbers? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser

    "I'll be long gone before some smart person ever figures out what happened inside this Oval Office." --George W. Bush, Washington, D.C., May 12, 2008

    by krwlngwthyou on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 04:17:41 PM PDT

  •  These aren't, I think (3+ / 0-)

    mixed results. Sure, Obama isn't ahead everywhere, but we're seeing almost universal movement in his direction (and towards other Democrats). That trend is astonishingly consistent across regions and demographics.

    Aux armes, citoyens.

    by MBNYC on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 04:20:25 PM PDT

    •  Well, To Add To The Meme Of Mixed Results... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MBNYC

      ABC has the race at 4 points, after having it at 9 points last week.

      "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
      Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
      Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

      by Steve Singiser on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 04:22:12 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  noticed that myself...I agree, the results (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Steve Singiser

        today were not what I was expecting, particularly the VA, NV numbers from ARG.  The national poll is also not the greatest.

        "I'll be long gone before some smart person ever figures out what happened inside this Oval Office." --George W. Bush, Washington, D.C., May 12, 2008

        by krwlngwthyou on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 04:23:45 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Seems like they didn't like being the outlier (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Steve Singiser, get the red out

        So they quickly repolled.  I'm not accusing them of malice or anything, but their poll was a semi-outlier in Obama's favor, and I'm sure they wanted to get a result that was more in line with the average (Obama +5-6).

      •  Yes, but (0+ / 0-)

        we aren't seeing a similar slide, as far as I'm aware, in other polls. I don't believe in happy talk for its own sake, but I'd guess that that really is an outlier.

        Aux armes, citoyens.

        by MBNYC on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 04:31:30 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I thought we all thought 9 was wrong last week (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Steve Singiser, get the red out

        and that ABC was an outlier.  This looks more like a correction to me than a trend, maybe??

      •  Are we ready to admit there's a problem? (3+ / 0-)

        If Obama had done an adequate job educating the American people on the reasons for the rescue plan, I'd be okay.  But he has not been effective.  He may believe a great good is served, but what the price will be to this nation is too terrifying to contemplate.  That Obama is a part of the same flacid Democratic reasoning is tearing me apart.  

        It's a crisis.  I believe that.  I believe we need government intervention.  I likewise believe that it must not cede power to the Bush Administration, and include each and every of Obama's original 7 principles, with teeth.  

        There is no political downside to his adhering to those principles.  Bush will blink.  He will sign it.  If not, or if it doesn't pass, then the Republicans own the failure.  But Obama must show -- in an actual bill -- that he means what he says and he will protect and rebuild the middle class.  If not, we're in terrible trouble here.  The polls are showing it.  It's all about this bill.  

      •  That 9 point lead was the most (0+ / 0-)

        we had seen since the conventions, and I thought it was too much. It was good in that, with the MOE, Obama had to be ahead at least by 3, but I don't fret that the new poll has it +4.

  •  ABC/WaPo has Obama up, 50-46 among LVs. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, Steve Singiser

    Better ahead than behind but not much room for error.  No time for complacency.

  •  Following Polls (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser

    No one believes in anything ARG says but I agree that this isn't what we hope for.  Nevada and North Carolina have been a mixed bag but in the case of North Carolina I think that if African-Americans and young voters turn out we win, otherwise, we don't. In Nevada I think that it is up to the newly registered, if they come out in proportion to their numbers, we win.  I also think that if Vurginia and North Carolina are won by us, you may see a dropoff in Rethug turnout in the West.  Every poll shows that there is not a lot of enthusiasm for McCain and they may check out if they think he can't win.

  •  The WaPo/ABC poll from last week was an outlier (3+ / 0-)

    even Plouffe said so. Still, a four point lead this week kinda sucks.

  •  Relax, everyone (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Woody, Steve Singiser

    There are a dozen or more polls a day, some will be better than we expect, some will be worse.  ARG has one of the worst reputations (only somewhat better than Zogby Interactive) in the business.  Discard those and the results today are great!  Virginia by 6, Ohio by 2, Florida by 3, Georgia only down 8.

    And the national poll a week ago (with a 9 point lead) was an outlier compared with others at that time.  With the exception of Research 2000, the trackers are all at 6, which is completely consistent with the ABC poll result of 4.  

    If you had been told months ago that Obama would be leading in the latest polls in VA, OH, FL and within 3 in Indiana, you would have been surprised and ecstatic.

    Keep working as if we're behind, but chill out a little.

    •  Even the ARG polls... (3+ / 0-)

      ...don't show any negative movement compared to their own previous results. Two weeks ago they had McCain up 52-41 in NC, so a 3 point margin represents significant momentum toward Obama. The NV and VA numbers are largely unchanged from their last polls (Obama gained a point in NV, McCain gained one in VA).

      The underest dog is just as good as I am, and I'm just as good as the toppest dog. - Jimmie Rodgers

      by GreenCA on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 04:43:47 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Every other national poll (3+ / 0-)

    has Obama up by 6 or more. I think the new ABC poll is the outlier, not the earlier one.

  •  Generic Dem in Tenn (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, Steve Singiser, Loose Fur

    The great news of the Tennessee poll: Generic Democrat, a virtual unknown, holds heretofore popular and still very well known incumbent to only 50%!

    Some white folks in TN may not be ready to vote for a black man for President, but they ache for a change in DC. They may vote Democratic in unexpected strength in this down-ticket Senate race.  

    Bob Tuke is a name we might want to get to know a lot better before Nov. 4!

    Meanwhile, in neighboring NC, another poll reported that Obama's share of white voters had increased from 36% to 39%. Of course, Obama has been campaigning heavily in NC. But other polls show Obama also improving in Florida and Georgia! And the economy is going to hell in all 50 states, including Tennessee. Not to lose sight of the fact that Obama passed the "Commander in Chief" test in the first debate. So Democrats are now coming on strong all across the South. I'm eager to see a fresh poll out of Texas, to see if Rick Noriega is also gaining on Big John Cornyn.

    •  Because Lamar Alexander sucks (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bhouston79, Steve Singiser

      I didn't even hear Bob Tuke's name until this weekend, and I'm sure I'm not alone in that.

      A viable Dem candidate would be very welcome, I predict. Here's hoping Tuke's the real deal.

      As far as I can tell, at least in Knoxville, the only folks who really like Alexander are farmers, because he is so big on ethanol subsidies. To the rest of us, he has been the laziest SOB imaginable, not even rousing himself to respond to voter letters or e-mails. On top of that, his voting record is almost 100% lockstep with Dubya.

      I would relish his defeat.

  •  Not taking ABC polls seriously here (4+ / 0-)

    Last week's was BS.  No doubt they overcorrected and got BS in the other direction.  

    Ignore ARG.  They suck.

    That leaves ongoing stalemate in Nevada and Ohio, and real progress in Florida and Georgia.  And that squares with a general pattern of the biggest movement towards Obama occurring in the southeast -- from the Potomac to Key West, all up and down the seaboard.

  •  McCain's getting some traction with his b.s., (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser, krwlngwthyou

    the base loves it.  Undecideds are split between the two on the economic crisis (GAllup).  And if Obama continues over the cliff by supporting this bailout bill as is, it's serious.  

    There's an undercurrent in a slice of voters who want to be comfortable with McCain; and if sticking it to Wall Street is his position, they're thrilled.  That "sticking it to Wall Street" would mean a complete return to the status quo after the election, well you KNEW he was a conservative, didn't you?  

    His outrageous ads will play well with the low information voter.  There's staying above the fray, and there's downright myopia to act as if there isn't presidential politics at play.  Just because Obama doesn't want it to be true doesn't make it so.  

    So I'm expecting some problems here.  McCain will not support this bill (if Obama does).  It would be a win-win if Obama just went back to his original 7 principles and said he wouldn't support it until they were in place.  It's a lose-lose if he supports the watered down bill now.  No way, no matter what McCain says, is he supporting this bill.  He's capable of saying he will, then not, and claiming he never did.  

    I'm not happy right now.  And I'm for a bailout.  Just not one that is our usual capitulation to Republicans and that could potentially cost us the election.  Very worried.  

    •  it is crazy how well McCain can divorce himself (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Steve Singiser

      from his party and come across as a maverick on this...

      I'm not sure why Barack thinks people want this bailout so much.  But, who knows.

      "I'll be long gone before some smart person ever figures out what happened inside this Oval Office." --George W. Bush, Washington, D.C., May 12, 2008

      by krwlngwthyou on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 04:37:59 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It's just stunning to watch. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Steve Singiser, krwlngwthyou

        And we know that he will go back to every disastrous policy the Republicans have ever dumped on us.  It's just absolutely stunning.  

        But the low information voter does not know that.  

        •  I hate admitting this, but I will. I know (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Steve Singiser

          McCain's position on the bailout better than I know Obamas.

          So if low info people don't know it, I don't blame them.  Because I have no clear idea of where Barack stands on this.

          "I'll be long gone before some smart person ever figures out what happened inside this Oval Office." --George W. Bush, Washington, D.C., May 12, 2008

          by krwlngwthyou on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 04:47:11 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  traction? worried? (5+ / 0-)
      Come on ... I bow to no one in my innate political pessimism, but if this is 'traction,' I'm King Henry the Eighth.  McCain has become a punch line along with his 'running mate,' and it's only gonna get worse for them.  As for ABC, I strongly doubted that nine-point spread last week, and four seems fine to me.  That's 300 electoral votes.  McCain struggling in VA, NC, IN is like Obama having to defend Rhode Island and Maryland, for God's sake.

      Dear Democratic Party: Win This One or Just Disband

      by Tuffie on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 04:45:13 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  No (3+ / 0-)

      Obama leads in NC, VA, and FL, and a new Ohio poll showing him ahead by 2, is not traction for McCain.

    •  You've gottne some facts wrong in your analysis.. (3+ / 0-)

      ...McCain owns the bailout now... he's insisted that it must pass and based his whole campaign on it...  The RNC argument that they are using against Obama is that he's going to spend EVEN MORE than the bailout, not really accusing him of supporting the bailout.

      Obama has been supportive of the bailout since the beginning, it was McCain who was wishy-washy, but is now all-in whether he likes it or not...  he can't pull away now that his little campaign stunt is over...

      Since McCain failed to lead, Obama is stepping in and being the adult.  It hasn't hurt him so far.  He spent a lot of time talking about it in the debate, and his poll numbers didn't suffer...

      While Americans hate the bailout, they also think something must be done, and it's the republicans playing politics with this issue...

      It will be OK...

      It profits a PUMA nothing to give their soul for the whole world... but for McCain? --Sir Thomas More (if he were here now)

      by LordMike on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 05:23:35 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Get rid of ARG from your poll sample list (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser, Loose Fur

    and you'll see Obama ahead by a lot more.

    Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

    by khyber900 on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 04:43:12 PM PDT

    •  Unfortunately, There Is Only One Pollster... (0+ / 0-)

      That I willingly ignore, and that is Zogby's Interactive (because of the sampling issues, and their rather spotty past record).

      ARG is a legitimate pollster, in the sense that there is nothing necessarily flawed in their methodology. They miss the fairway more often than most, but that does not warrant a wholesale rejection of their numbers.

      "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
      Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
      Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

      by Steve Singiser on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 05:30:03 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Obama and Bailout (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser

    Obama should come out with a Dem hardcore bailout proposal, incorporating a stimulus package for the working and middle class,full protection for struggling homeowners(HOLC style) government public works and punitive damages for the white-collar thugs.
    Dare the Rethugs in the House to vote for breadlines, hell we have the votes in the House. Bush will sign anything in this point.
    Let the Rethugs in the Senate filibuster, put it on them, you know if the situation was reversed, they'd put it on us.  Obama could screw himself with this if he's not careful, the bailout in any form other than Dem hardcore is poison politically.

    •  We've been screaming this for two days. (3+ / 0-)

      I absolutely cannot fathom why he is not doing it.  All I've heard is that they're actually trying to get those dozen Republican votes.  

      I see it as the perfect opportunity to show what the Obama administration will look like.  I'm terrified at his position on this.  It's a win-win to draft a bill with teeth and dare them to vote against it and Bush to veto it.  

      I believe the crisis is real enough that Bush would blink.  I cannot understand Obama on this.  I really can't.  

      •  There's plenty of arguments to make (3+ / 0-)

        against the current bailout, but I'm not so sure it's win-win for him to sponsor a new one. If it fails, then the media can paint him as just as ineffectual as McCain, or even more so because he jumped into the same briar patch McCain was already in.

        I'm not saying Obama's perfect, or that a different bill wouldn't be better. But in watching him over the campaign, I think he doesn't make a move unless he's certain it can't hurt him politically. This may mean we're not always thrilled with his choices, but at the very least we are a lot more likely to see him elected. And I think everyone will agree that's the job of the moment.

      •  Because he is an intellectual ... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Steve Singiser, Loose Fur

        And according to Paulson, there isn't time to really hash out a good plan ... not without the risk of missing something that could later become a disaster.  If he focuses his energy on creating a bailout/economic package and away from his campaign, he will be taking a major risk if his package fails.
         
        There's no reason for him to take that kind of risk.  I think what he has done is entirely appropriate.  Especially given that he is not the President.  The stupid President should be taking more a leadership role or move his azz back to Crawford Texas a few months early.

  •  Don't worry about ARG... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser, Loose Fur

    They're better than Zogby, but their numbers still seem to be a little randomized.

  •  Why not rely on .... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser, Loose Fur

    I like http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/...  This web-site seems to have a good handle on this subject.

    •  Already Have It Bookmarked... (0+ / 0-)

      And Nate said something very similar to what I said today--that the state numbers are no reflecting the divergence in the national numbers, at least not yet.

      "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
      Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
      Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

      by Steve Singiser on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 05:31:14 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  ARG has a repub bias (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser, Loose Fur

    or at least they consistently understate Obama's support, so those state polls aren't a concern.

    Also, the last ABC/Wapo poll was almost certainly too optimistic. Obama at 50% and 4 points up is fine.

  •  If he hits 50- (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser, Loose Fur

    I'm not as concerned about the 4 pt spread as I am impressed with Obama hitting 50%.  We're 5 weeks out and as things tighten he's in great shape.  As long as he picks up 1 in 4 of the undecideds he's +2 and that should be enough to carry over to the electoral college.  (And I think R defections to Barr could be a catastrophe for McCain in Oh, Va and Ga.)

    Also campaigning all over and the 50 State strategy are paying real dividends.  Instead of being life/death in Ohio and Florida we are working on flipping Nevada, Va and Colorado for possibly a few cycles.  I wish someone could focus on the suburban and hispanic vote because I really think they are the deciding factor for us in those three states as well as NC.  

    Sometimes we still seem stuck in the 90s paradigm of soccer moms, bubba and the angry white male while demographics have moved.  The hispanic vote has grown, African Americans are revved up and many states' rural-urban splits are being played out in suburds and exurbs (who the heck knew that word in 1996?).

  •  agree with the 50% (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser, Loose Fur

    For historical purposes it helps to look at the Bush/Kerry race from 2004 from realclearpolitics.    

    Polls bounce all over the place.  The key is that McCain rarely leads.  Just as Kerry rarely lead in 2004.  

    I don't know why any of you think this will be a blowout.  I'd be surprised if Obama won by more than 3-4.  This isn't going to be ClinTon/Dole or Duke/Bush.  

    •  Right (0+ / 0-)

      from Gallup today:

      Although support for Obama among national registered voters hit the 50% mark in the past two days of Gallup Poll Daily tracking (he initially attained 50% in early September), he has yet to cross that symbolic threshold. The importance of this, however, is unclear. Gallup's historical trial heat trends show that the winners in 1988, 2000 -- both years with minimal third party candidate support suppressing the vote for the major party candidates -- rarely attained 50% or greater support from registered voters prior to Gallup's final pre-election poll.

      Voter support for George W. Bush only once exceeded 50% in his 2004 campaign against John Kerry, that being 53% in mid-September. In 1988, George H.W. Bush reached or surpassed the 50% mark once at the very beginning and then not again until the last two weeks of the campaign.

      What's the difference between Palin and Cheney? Answer: lipstick!

      by Beauregard on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 07:00:38 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Well, state polls in key races do (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser

    seem to be favoring Obama

    see my diary from Sunday

    Colorado === so so
    Florida == strong Obama trend
    Indiana == strong Obama trend
    Michigan == strong Obama trend
    Minnesota == weak McCain trend
    Missouri == weak Obama trend
    Nevada === very close, not much trend
    New Hampshire == very slight Obama trend
    New Mexico === strong Obama trend
    North Carolina === strong Obama trend
    Ohio === very close, no real trend
    Penn. === slight Obama trend
    Virginia === slight Obama trend

  •  I don't think MI-09 is quite right (0+ / 0-)
    Same poll shows Obama with a 52-35 edge, which I find improbable for MI-09.  I think Peters can win it, but I'm still worried about Kevorkian being on the ballot.  <sigh>

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