Immigration issue killed Romney in Florida

Simon Rosenberg:

According to the exit polls Mitt Romney and John McCain tied 33% to 33% among the 89% of the Florida voters last night who were not Hispanic.  Among Hispanics, who where 11% of the Florida GOP electorate last night, the vote was 54% McCain, 24% Rudy and 14% Romney. So it was the vote of Hispanic voters who put John McCain over the top in Florida, and gave him the most important win of his fight for the GOP nomination.

Thus, John McCain, the candidate who championed immigration reform, may have had the nomination delivered to him by those Hispanic voters he has been fighting for.  And Romney, who has led the anti-immigrant crusade in the GOP field this year, saw this strategy explode on him - as it has virtually every other Republican who has invested in it - last night.

McCain has had to distance himself from his more moderate position on immigration in order to attempt to negate some of the hostility conservatives have toward him. The quicker he wraps this thing up, the quicker he can throw his base under the bus on immigration and make a last-ditch effort to rescue the Republican Party from itself on the issue. Too bad for him, he'll have hundreds of little Republicans running down-ballot races basing their entire campaigns on demonizing brown people.

•  Racism

  Racism is not a political position.

  by discocarp on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:09:43 AM PDT

  •  Maybe not,

    but it sure has won a lot of elections over the years.

    by JoeW on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:18:58 AM PDT

    •  sigh

      sigh.. I can't argue that..

      by discocarp on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:21:12 AM PDT

    •  1980, 1984, 1988, 2000, 2004....

      All the code-word racist crap got perfected with the Southern Strategy.

      That's why I am a strong proponent of returning "nigger" to the active language.

      Similar in thinking to Lenny Bruce. His "nigger" joke was brilliant. Worth a google and serious read from everybody.

      Hiding racism is what makes it pernicious in the modern context.

      BTW: the silly racism of a Ron Paul isn't going to hurt anybody.

      The "No Child Left Behind" racism -- that is what splatters the colored kids. That's the real threat.

      (Yeah, I've taught school. Ran SAT Prep in SW L.A. area high schools -- bordering Compton -- and did a good job at it. Heavily black with most of the kids Latin.)

      by vets74 on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:43:30 AM PDT

      •  Ron Paul racism

        Not quite true that it won't hurt anybody - it'll hurt Ron Paul!  

        His silly racism is going to kill his chances of taking third-party votes from Democrats, since he obviously is planning a third-party run.

        vets74, the problem with racism isn't even so much that it's hidden, it's that racism is subsumed within the war on working and poor people.  Blacks and Latinos (and recent immigrants of all colours) are hurt worst by that constant war.

        by Tybalt on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 01:18:21 PM PDT

•  This is why he's still in it

  It won't kill him in other places, ie Texas, Ohio, etc.

  Romney is still in this thing, mark my words.

  by jkennerl on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:09:51 AM PDT

  •  I Think McCain Probably Wins It, BUT...

    ...I don't think it's over.  And Florida is very atypical Republican ground on the immigration issue.  

    I think Huckabee still being in the race hurt Romney a lot more than immigration did.  

    by DHinMI on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:12:30 AM PDT

    •  I Totally Agree....

      The intense right-wing might be 50-60% of the Republican Party, but they are being split two ways right now. So McCain can keep running the tables while only winning 30-40% of the vote.

      by Steve Singiser on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:14:24 AM PDT

      •  Good points

        Wonder if the conservatives will coalesce around Romney now that Huckabee's fading away?

        by JoeW on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:19:53 AM PDT

    •  I Took A Stroll Down Redstate Election Eve...

      Boy was I struck by the vitriol McCain was getting from his homies -- almost all of it because of his immigration position (he was "Juan" to them). They don't want him. To a T, they were pledging not to vote in November if he won. I was aghast. Our diary wars are a croquet match in comparison.

      by chuco35 on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:20:18 AM PDT

      •  They'll come back

        They're all spine now, when a challenger is in the race, but they will all come back to McCain in the fall, especially if he throws a bone to the nativists with a VP choice.

        by Tybalt on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 01:19:54 PM PDT

    •  Rejecting the Mormon is core Baptist ideology.

      Go Huck !!

      Hope he's not too disappointed when he doesn't get the V.P. nod.

      by vets74 on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:47:11 AM PDT

•  Rooting for McCain

  I long thought that the election would turn on the issue of the economy. Now that it looks more than likely, I'm glad that we have a McCain candidacy to look forward. For one, McCain isn't the greatest salesman for 'Vodoo' economics. He lacks the knowledge to fudge the messy details of his economic policy. Moreover, his stated credentials on the issue are his having the approval of people like Phil Grahmm, Warren Ruddman, etc... What. A. Joke. Clearly, this guy is up the Ganges without a paddle when it comes to the economy. The second, and more important reason, for my love of a McCain candidacy is that his eventual loss to Hillary or Barack is going warp conservatives into thinking that they have to nominate only the most hardcore, fringe nut to have a chance at winning a presidential election. Unforeseen circumstance notwithstanding, this should set up President Clinton or President Obama for a lay up in 2012.

  by crazymoloch on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:10:48 AM PDT

  •  Conversely, I think Romney can sound more....

    ... credible on the number issue - the economy.

    by crazymoloch on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:12:30 AM PDT

    •  Romney can sound convincing at anything.

      The longer he stays in this race, the longer the paid-whore-hatemonger-freakheads keep hammering McCain.

      The Rush Limbaugh Model c*cksuckers.

      by vets74 on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:49:31 AM PDT

    •  Romney's Economic Record in Mass was a disaster.

       Boston Globe Editorial.

      by immigradvocate on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 02:09:12 PM PDT

•  As I understand it,

  Conservatives consider McCain pretty wimpy on immigration as well. But in Florida he promised to close the border. So I guess they believed him.

  by droogie6655321 on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:11:01 AM PDT

  •  Close the border?

    Unless he promised to close the border to prevent northerners from going to Florida or vice versa, I don't see how that would even be an issue.  Florida has no border with another country.  

    Bottom line is people, especially among the latino communities, want sensible reform.  His bill was a start.  It's much better than the demagoguery we've been getting from the other repubs.

    by DisNoir36 on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:19:43 AM PDT

    •  keep out the Canadians

      who come every winter - with their tourist dollars?
      Yeah, that will work.

      by CParis on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:37:27 AM PDT

    •  All them Mexicans swimming around the Panhandle.

      In their water wings.........

      by vets74 on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:51:00 AM PDT

•  And McCain and Romeny

  Had identical positions on Castro/Cuba, I believe, so you can't attribute McCain's victory to that issue.

  by pontificator on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:11:16 AM PDT

  •  But McCain Being Military and Probably Better

    known to the Cuban community, wouldn't that still be a contributing factor?

    by Gooserock on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:27:11 AM PDT

•  One good thing about McCain

  is that hopefully there will not be rush to demonize immigrants and illegal immigrants at the Presidential level.  

  by arogue7 on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:12:10 AM PDT

  •  One good in a sea of shit. No improvements there.

    by jkennerl on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:13:44 AM PDT

  •  He is defintiely the most palatable of the bunch,

    which is not unlike saying that lethal injection is preferable to the firing squad or electric chair.

    by ablington on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:27:48 AM PDT

    •  "McCain. He is Sane."

      that should be enough to win the GOP nomination, if they worried about sanity.

      Of course, they don't.......

      Not recently.

      by vets74 on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:52:35 AM PDT

•  On the Dem side. . .

  . . . Obama should air a spanish tv spot for the Calif. market with Rep. Linda Sanchez.  Both are the children of immigrants.  They should say so.  

  Hey Axelrod:  get busy!

  by maye on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:13:57 AM PDT

  •  Count on it.

    Next week gets interesting in California.

    by vets74 on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:53:15 AM PDT

•  Martinez endorsement

  probably helped a lot.

  by Paleo on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:14:01 AM PDT

  •  And just think how close

    we came to not having him as a Senator!

    by JoeW on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:21:04 AM PDT

•  Viva Kennedy-McCain Immigration Bill

  I believe that Kennedy's endorsement of Obama will give him a sig. boost.  I had previously expressed my reservations about Obama and the Hispanic vote..

  http://www.dailykos.com/...

  ...and I now hope that Kennedy will put Hispanics at ease.

  by PatriciaVa on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:14:31 AM PDT

  •  Obama frustrates me sometimes

    He actually has an excellent record on immigration, and Latino voters should support him more.  He worked closely with Leahy and Kennedy on attempting to keep the more progressive, less punitive provisions in the comprehensive immigration bill.  When the GOP added too many poison pill ammendments, it actually was Obama who killed it - by offering an ammendment restoring family-based immigration.  By that time, Leahy and even Kennedy had soured on the bill.  Obama introduced his ammendment, and left Lindsay Graham and McCain looking like a-holes to their supporters.  

    Obama was substantively involved with Leahy and Kennedy on immigration.  Hillary voted right most of the time, but had no policy role to speak of and was uninvolved in the strategy.  I think this solid policy strength and Obama's intelligence are part of the reason both Leahy and Kennedy endorsed him. I wish they would do an ad for Obama to target Latino voters.  

    But Obama is such a cautious politician, he won't even mention his role in immigration reform... he's always so focused on the general election, he won't even use his own substantive policy experience to help him win the primary.  He's not going to win the general if he can't win the primary, and he's nuts to cede the Latino vote to HRC when his record on immigration is actually stronger.

    by ivorybill on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:23:46 AM PDT

    •  Three Things

      Ivorybill,

      Three things.

      Read my link above.  Here's the body...

      http://www.dailykos.com/...

      I'm Mexican-American.  As I was growing up, I would visit my grandparents every summer in Nuevo Leon.  My siblings and I would play outdoors every day, despite the 95+ degree heat (at least it's a dry heat), but very few other children did.  One day, I asked why they waited until evening to come out and play.  They responded that they did not want to tan so much that they'd be confused with Indians.

      Racism is much more prevalent in Mexico than the US, among all socioeconomic groups.

      While most of my Hispanic friends (Stanford + Ivy League) are supporting Obama, most of my aunts, uncles and cousins (first and second-generation Mexican Americans) are supporting Clinton.  (I'd like to make it clear that I believe Senator Clinton is also an exceptional candidate, and I would be proud to cast a vote for her in the GE)

      I just hope that, if Obama were to get the nod, they don't sit out the general election.

      What can Obama do to neutralize this?

      Don't realy know.  He needs a high profile Mexican-American at his side at all times, for starters.

      (ii) A telling sentence from a WSJ note on Obama and the Hispanic vote.

      http://online.wsj.com/...

      Michele Martinez, a Latino city councilor in Santa Ana, a major Hispanic city in southern California, says when she goes out to canvass for Mr. Obama one of the things she hears is, "I can't vote for a black man," sometimes accompanied by a racial slur.

      (iii) Obama needs Xavier Becerra, Kennedy and others  to sell him to the Hispanic community.  I hope he is cutting some focus group-tested spots as I type this.

      by PatriciaVa on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:47:52 AM PDT

      •  It's a fixable problem

        Obama is a natural sell for Mexican-Americans because his policies are naturally aligned with their interests (in the group- or demographic-wide sense).  His focus on young people should be a big part of that.  But I agree, he needs to be sold.  Marketed.

        by Tybalt on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 01:23:50 PM PDT

•  Romulac and Grandpa John at some

  point will attempt to demonize the "browns amongst us" otherwise they are dead in the water.  That bodes well for us because it's a loser.  We are truly simple creatures if we evaluate human worth based on skin pigment because the real truth--no one is pure anything.  We're all mutts.

  by rrheard on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:15:05 AM PDT

  •  Romulac?

    Is that a drug for keeping you "regular"?

    by JoeW on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:21:49 AM PDT

    •  No it's like Similac or farina--food for babies

      which is precisely what those two will have to give to some in their base (not that there aren't some in the Dems).  Dogwhistle immigrant bashing.  Oldest tale in the history of American politics.  Bash the guy who hasn't been hear as long as you have.  Pretty pathetic but unsurprising.

      by rrheard on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:24:14 AM PDT

      •  Damn my thick fingers "here" not "hear"

        by rrheard on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:25:11 AM PDT

    •  a Romulan perhaps?

      by CParis on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:38:56 AM PDT

•  Immigration helps us

  Whoever the nominee, the vitriolic remarks about Hispanics (will turn off everyone except  the wingnuts in the general election. I can't see McCain raising that as an issue this fall. It's a non-starter for him.

  Bring it on, John!

  by CocoaLove on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:16:04 AM PDT

  •  McCain scares me

    in part because he is not a bigot and Latinos might vote for him.  McCain is against torture, he has pandered on immigration but is more reasonable than the other Republicans, and he is not as overtly sociopathic as the rest of the GOP slate.  

    If a Republican has to win, I'd rather it were McCain than any of the rest of them.  But the downside to that is, he might actually win.

    by ivorybill on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:25:55 AM PDT

    •  So we'd have an Angry Bitter Old Man

      With Access to Nuclear Weapons. Now That's Scary

      by JML9999 on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:27:49 AM PDT

    •  Republicans R Just a Choice of Execution Methods

      They'll all appoint young corporatists to the Court, and it's game over.

      by Gooserock on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:31:25 AM PDT

•  Great, so if McCain wins the Repub nomination...

  as a "Democrat-lite" then Ron Paul will swoop in and steal the election!

  by wry twinger on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:16:19 AM PDT

•  It will be interesting to Watch McCain throw

  Rush Limbaugh under a Bus

  by JML9999 on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:20:16 AM PDT

  •  Nah, if he's the nominee

    they'll famously "make up," leaving us all gnashing our teeth.

    by JoeW on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:22:35 AM PDT

    •  That would be Olympic class Backpeddling on

      Limbaugh's part considering the "Death of the GOP Party" comment re a McCain Nomination.

      by JML9999 on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:24:09 AM PDT

      •  Rush will explain how much better McCain is

        than whoever we nominate.  And he'll claim that McCain has changed -- is a "better" GOP member now.

        by mijita on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:47:04 AM PDT

        •  NO....

          Rush won't "soften" on his criticism of McCain...he'll do what all the Repugs will do: make it all about Hilary!

          by dnegri on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 12:20:07 PM PDT

•  Another example where DK had the relevant info

  a day early

  I thought it was interesting
  that McCain and Romney tied among non-Hispanics, but McCain trounced Mitt among the 11% of Hispanic voters. Also 40% of Republicans said we should deport all illegal immigrants (CNN's term not mine).

  by Sacramento Dem on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:16:42 PM PST

  Mitt Romney and John McCain tied 33% to 33% among the 89% of the Florida voters last night who were not Hispanic.  Among Hispanics, who where 11% of the Florida GOP electorate last night, the vote was 54% McCain, 24% Rudy and 14% Romney
  Submitted by Simon Rosenberg on Wed, 01/30/2008 - 1:14pm

  Of course Rosenberg has an actual analysis.

  by Sacramento Dem on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:24:49 AM PDT

  •  I think the Florida Primary, if nothing else,

    made the candidates of both parties understand that the Latino/Immigrant vote is important. You can bash immigrants for just so long before they get pissed. Look at what the Irish and so many other groups did historically, when they were demonized and marginalized.
    Latinos Unidos for a new tone concerning Hispanics/Latinos/Immigrants.
    Florida made a difference.

    by immigradvocate on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 02:22:57 PM PDT

    •  I think the rhetoric has been so heated that

      it made public some very ugly truths, and it convinced many that something very bad might really happen. I hope this marks the 'last throes' of the xenophobic movement. Elections do matter.

      by Sacramento Dem on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 04:48:45 PM PDT

      •  Yes they do. And that almost as many Democrats

        voted in Florida as Repubs sends a message. Even though the voters knew their vote wouldn't count for delegates, they still voted. Because elections do matter.

        by immigradvocate on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 05:25:23 PM PDT

•  That should be a word of warning to

  those Dem candidates stupid enough to listen to Rahm Emanuel, when he said Dems should go to the far right with the immigration issue.

  We have one Congressional Dem candidate here in IL-14, Foster, who was dumb enough to listen to Rahm, his backer and mentor.  He even supports national I.D. cards.

  This is one reason, among many reasons, I support progressive John Laesch.  We don't need anymore anti-immigrant, blue-dog Democrats.

  by edwardssl on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:25:00 AM PDT

  •  immigrant meme

    over here in my state we have got a mini-Tancredo gearing up to run against Democratic incumbent
    Paul Kanjorski, PA-11.  He's built up quite a fan base with this platform, I am sorry to say, and I hope we can squash this bug before he gets any bigger. Lou Barletta is his name. He's a mayor now, and we certainly don't want him in Congress.

    Over there in your state I've got fingers crossed for John Laesch, Mark Pera, and Dan Seals.  Good luck.

    by Christopher Walker on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 08:20:45 PM PDT

•  The far-right candidates

  are dropping faster than I expected.  Tancredo, Brownback, Thompson, Hunter . . . none could raise significant money or find widespread support.  

  Now their favorite issue, immigration, has the opposite effect in Florida than what Romney wanted to see.  Even the Republican primary voters think the party has moved too far right.  And they are willing to poke Rush Limbaugh in the eye to prove it by voting for McCain.  

  by Fortschreitend on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:27:59 AM PDT

•  How soon you forget

  Romney, who has led the anti-immigrant crusade in the GOP field this year

  I can't, however, living in Tom Tancredo's district.  He's the poster boy for Anti-Immigration.  Romney's a Johnny-shoot-lately compared to Tom.  Still managed to shoot himself in the foot by his stance.

  by ColoTim on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:30:21 AM PDT

•  I was under the impression

  that a broke Grandpa M was more dangerous than Mittens' magic millions to a Dem candidate in the General.
  The TV name recognition factor and not being a Mormon is quite a Republican pull on top of being the only white guy in the race.

  by UniC on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:33:57 AM PDT

•  I Can Safely Call California For John McCain

  Romney can spend the rest of his fortune there and he will never win.

  Immigrant bashing does not work.

  by DFutureIsNow on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:45:15 AM PDT

•  I hope your are right,

  but independents split their votes all the time.

  by mystic on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:48:08 AM PDT

•  Geeze your killing Bloomburg's chances here

  He wants to be the one to rescue the republican party.

  by B P Pgh on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 11:50:18 AM PDT

•  Huck and Shuck

  Huckabee has stayed in this race for one reason only: to help knock off first Giuiani, then Romney, for McCain. There'll be no Huckabee resurgence.
  After Super Tuesday, he'll be gone if McCain is way ahead (and no,he won't be named VP either).

  And this poll/analysis on the immigration vote only underscores that among the general population, and not just latinos, well over half favor some kind of comprehensive solution
  along the lines proposed by Bush, McCain, Kennedy....and also by both Clinton and Obama, though with a bit of hesitancy. Because if McCain can trump us with the Latinos/Hispanics, it'll cost us any chance at Nevada, New Mexico and even, remotely, Arizona....for starters.

  The talk-radio/Tom Tancredo noise machine scared Congress, but even then their strident tone and lack of any solution didn't represent the majority of the population. I think you'll find both McCain and the Dem candidate sort of espousing the same rhetoric in the general, thus neutralizing the issue. But we'll still get hurt somewhat if the Latino votes gets siphoned off...

  by dnegri on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 12:18:14 PM PDT

  •  Interesting That You Call

    well over half favor some kind of comprehensive solution along the lines proposed by Bush, McCain, Kennedy

    Simply conferring legal status on those in this country illegally along with some newly created guest worker programs -- to go along with the nine guest-worker programs we have already -- a 'solution'.

    I call it IRCA Part Deux.

    If the terriers and bariffs are torn down, this economy will grow - G. Bush

    by superscalar on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 01:14:50 PM PDT

•  The very same Simon Rosenberg

  Who just loves him some 'free trade' agreements with Mexico

  If the terriers and bariffs are torn down, this economy will grow - G. Bush

  by superscalar on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 12:51:35 PM PDT

•  Working hard to minimize the effect

  A million people, mostly hispanic, are waiting their citizenship with a deliberate slowdown by Homeland Security. This isn't a coincidence. They don't want them voting.

  by MrMichaelMT on Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 12:56:50 PM PDT