I spent some time this morning looking over the new polls, which seem to show a plateau of sorts in the gains Obama has been showing, and was somewhat discouraged until I saw the real lede, buried deep inside the Diageo report:
Voters who report high enthusiasm for their candidate are far more inclined to say they will vote for Obama-Biden (62%), than for McCain-Palin (38%).
If enthusiasm = turnout, November 4th is going to be a dark, dark day for McCain Republicans. There is no poll out there whose turnout models account for a 3:2 delta on this measure.
Some will question whether this isn't the youth demographic's influence on the numbers, and it is rational to point out historically disappointing turnout from young voters. This cycle is different.
I listened to a story on NPR this morning about early voting in Ohio. Thus far it appears dominated by college students. Colleges have set up shuttle buses to take students to polling places, and students have set up programs to go to senior centers and homeless shelters to register voters and take them to polling places -- sometimes both steps at once.
When you combine this new phenomenon with Palin's tanking favorables and McCain's fail-a-thon on the bailout, it is clear that a tsunami is forming out at sea.
Let's run up the score!!!