By the time the new ABC/WAPO Poll came out, I was safely in bed thinking of the Obama victory in exactly five weeks. I was also wondering what kind of celebration could occur here in the UK considering the victory will be at around 6:00 AM local time. Those were the thoughts that I happily went to sleep with.
Well, this morning I go online and read that ABC reports, "Obama Maintains Advantages But Movables Stay Unrooted."
While I am not a "Kosack," (cough, I am registered Republican, longtime RNC Contributor, NRA Life Member, cough) I do want to see the GOP absolutely crushed this November and do not want for them to have any hope for the next five weeks. I am not "happy" with a 5% lead, a 10% lead or even a 15% lead. I want a thrattling 20% lead that leaves the GOP in a complete state of hopelessnes!
Well after the initial read from ABC/WAPO, first I got the "heebeegeebies," then I pulled out my HP 12C and scratch pad. See that 50% "fix" just does not do it anymore. I need more.
I have to do something until the Research 2000 numbers are released, fellow ex pats are thirsting to read new diaries and it is almost lunch time!
Face it, while we were all cavalier about the September 22, 2008 ABC/WAPO poll showing Obama crushing at McCain at 52%/43%, we did fall in love with that poll even if we knew the underlying data might have been a little dodgey. Isn't "love" always like that?
Since the prverbial bloom has now come off the rose, time to open the hood and take a look at what is underneath.
Buried at the bottom of the WAPO link, we find the partisan demographics.
On September 22, 2008, the poll consisted of 53% Democrats w/leaners and 41% Republicans w/leaners.
On September 29, 2008, the poll consists of 50% Democrats w/leaners and 43% Republicans w/leaners.
The sampling represented a net improvement towards McCain of 5% through a reduction of Democrats (3%) and an increase in Republicans (2%). This appears to be in line with prior polls that they have taken.
Still trying to take all this in, I wanted to see what other interesting demographics I could find.
The first one to stick out was race. The current poll is 79% white while the prior poll was 74% white. There is no data beyond that.
So now I know that the current poll had a partisan favorability shift to McCain by 5% and a 5% shift in race that would tend to favor McCain as well.
The next demographic really stuck out because there was extensive prior data.
- (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) Are you:
Never
Married Separated Divorced Widowed Married
9/29/08 RV 64 1 9 8 18
9/22/08 RV 60 2 9 9 19
9/7/08 RV 60 2 11 9 18
8/22/08 RV 64 3 9 5 18
8/22/08 59 3 9 5 24
7/13/08 RV 59 3 10 8 20
7/13/08 55 3 10 8 25
6/15/08 53 2 10 9 26
5/11/08 55 2 9 8 25
4/13/08 53 1 12 8 26
3/2/08 54 3 10 7 27
2/1/08 56 3 10 8 24
Do you see what I see?
In one week, this poll became whiter, more GOP and the last week in September must be a popular time to get married.
Now we go back to the premise of ABC, "Obama Maintains Advantages But Movables Stay Unrooted."
So what is the correct conclusion of the new ABC/WAPO poll, even if that does not sell dead tree papers? The only "movables" are the poll samples. John McCain has gained nothing, the race remains unchanged and is very stable.
Four years ago, right wing bloggers and radio were fisking polls like this on a daily basis. Today, they are barely discussed.
News from the UK? Not quite the UK, but our friends in the Republic of Ireland will now be guaranteeing the deposits of savers for an unlimited amount. IMO, that will bring in large cash deposits from offshore.
Cheers,
Updated: Here is a link
to the 2004 exit polls where we note that whites composed 77% of the 2004 election which ties into a comment by raf, "white population will be closer to actual voting population. Whites made up 76-77% of the total in 2004 and that number isn't going up due to demographic changes."
Updated Again: Thank you for getting this diary on the recommended list. I am humbled by the tip jar "tips." Oh no, what will I tell my Republican friends!