With Sarah Palin scheduled to visit Omaha, Nebraska tonight, NE-02's status as a national battleground has been confirmed.
Sean at 538 has more:
Berge told us that we’d know if the Nebraska 2d congressional district internals had the McCain camp worried if we started seeing Republican surrogates in the area. With every day's time so precious for each candidate -- an issue of resource allocation -- campaigns have to prioritize where the smartest expenditure of time will be. The nominee or VP nominee going to an area is a big deal.
An unlikely battleground, Nebraska's 2nd District is showing real signs of becoming one of the tightest races in the country in 2008.
The groundwork started in 2006, when a little-known candidate named Jim Esch, with little funding and no support from the national party, came within 9% of knocking off four-term incumbent Lee Terry.
That race was lost by 16,971 votes. Since May 2007, over 17,000 new Democrats have registered to vote in Douglas County. As of October 1, Democrats had closed the gap in Douglas County to fewer than 2,000 voters. By the time the registration deadline hits on October 17, Democrats may have taken the lead.
The February caucuses were a huge turning point. Obama came to the Civic Auditorium (the same venue Palin will be speaking at tonight) and spoke to a capacity crowd of 10,000 people. Things felt different. This time, Nebraska mattered, and our voices would be heard. That Saturday, tens of thousands turned out for Obama at the caucuses. At one particular caucus, an incredible scene inspired Jim Esch to give it another shot.
In a spontaneous move, the caucusgoers in LD 9 drafted Jim Esch to speak for the Obama supporters. It's not an exaggeration to say that their enthusiasm was one of the big reasons why he decided to challenge Lee Terry again.
Esch kicked off his campaign, and almost immediately, Lee Terry started complaining loudly about the lack of support the RNC was giving to Nebraska. You could chalk it up to a politician fearful about his own reelection chances, but public polling suggested a close race as well. As partisan tendencies hardened and the Republican base united behind McCain, the statewide numbers in Nebraska moved toward McCain. But in Nebraska's 2nd District, they never budged.
As of this moment, Barack Obama's campaign has 15 staffers in the 2nd District, and a second office in North Omaha. John McCain has none. Obama has spent $350,000 on ads in Omaha. McCain has spent none.
And all the while, our campaign has quietly been doing the things we need to do to succeed. We have been canvassing and phonebanking, talking to voters and talking about the issues. We are on the air drawing strong contrasts with our opponent. And we're closer than ever before. Because on Wednesday, when President Bush called Lee Terry to pressure him into voting for the bailout bill the second time around, Terry made his self-interest in getting NE-02 on McCain's radar screen known:
The call lasted less than 5 minutes. Once Bush heard that Terry seemed to be on board, he asked how the Huskers were doing.
They also talked about presidential politics.
"I said, 'You know, Obama's giving us the love and McCain isn't,'" Terry said, referring to Barack Obama staffing a campaign office in Omaha. "I said, 'You should tell Mr. McCain that he needs to recognize that we exist out here.'
"He said he'd be glad to tell (John McCain) that, that they need to come out and show us the love," Terry said.
Sorry to say, Sarah Palin cannot and will not match the energy of thousands of supporters hard at work for Obama, Esch, and Kleeb in Omaha right now. And one visit by Sarah Palin will not save Lee Terry's job.
(I am the online media director for Jim Esch for Congress.)