Tom Brokaw and Chuck Todd were amazed this weekend: North Carolina and Virginia are not locks for the Republican Party this fall. Now polls show Republican Senate seats in those states -- as well as possibly ones in Georgia, Virginia, and Kentucky -- going to Democrats this fall. The South, for a generation the Republican Party's base, is looking less red by the day.
How could this have happened? It has been decades since Democrats have been competitive in these states on the Presidential level. No one could have foreseen this!
Actually, that's not true.
Douglas Wilder saw it coming more than a year ago.
Former Virginia Governor (and current Richmond Mayor) Douglas Wilder gave an interview with the Politico in August of 2007 in which he all but endorsed Barack Obama for president. At the time I felt it important enough to diary (linked in part because we had a pretty thoughtful discussion in comments that looks prescient today). Douglas Wilder's words are important enough to review in light of all that has happened over the past year.
L. Douglas Wilder of Virginia, who made history as the nation's first elected black governor, is preparing to campaign aggressively for Barack Obama, and predicted in an interview that the charismatic young candidate could shatter the Republican Party's virtual lock on the South.
"He's not race-less," Wilder said of Obama, "but the skin color is of no moment. I don't think he would be an easy target for the Republicans."
The Politico suggested Wilder's comments are atypical and significant:
The unstinting embrace by Wilder, now the mayor of Richmond, could be important in Virginia and other southern states, where his reputation still looms large and the African-American vote could prove decisive in the Democratic nominating contest.
His lavish praise was also surprising. Wilder's frequent practice has been to haze fellow Democrats, either with public digs or a mischievous silence, if he believed they had not paid their dues or could challenge him for influence.
This interview took place months before Wilder endorsed Obama, though it seemed pretty clear at the time that he was an enthusiastic Obama supporter.
Wilder flashed annoyance when he recalled conversations with people who say Obama "is a nice man — he's got a lot to learn."
"That's a put-down," Wilder said firmly. "What has he got to learn?"
Both Wilder and Governor Tim Kaine think the Democrats could win Virginia in a general election, and that Obama would be a formidable candidate in the state.
Virginia, once dependable for Republicans in presidential elections, has been moving inexorably toward toss-up status and is one of roughly nine states that Democrats are targeting as potential flips in 2008. "It's not a knee-jerk state," Wilder said. "It's not a red state — my God."
Gov. Tim Kaine, a Democrat who has endorsed Obama,said in an interview in his office on Friday: "Virginia is changing. It's not a one-party state anymore."
Wilder concluded that his own experiences in Virginia indicate Southerners are capable of voting for Barack Obama.
Wilder recalled that he was told that rural whites would never vote for him. "'Lo and behold, I started going up into the mountains with those mountaineers and coal miners," he said. "They embraced me — wouldn't let me go. Some of the strongest support I had. And that's why I feel today that Americans are fair-minded people."
That was August of 2007. Now, less than a month before Election Day 2008, we see polls showing Obama with a double-digit lead in Virginia. Bluegrass legend Ralph Stanley has cut an ad airing in southwestern Virginia in which he calls Obama "a good man" -- an ad with sentiments similar to those Wilder expressed about how rural whites embraced him almost twenty years ago. Polls showing a narrow Obama lead in North Carolina. Polls showing a closing gap in Georgia. And Congressional races look very interesting south of the Mason-Dixon line these days.
Even though voters will continue to make up their minds for a few more weeks, Barack Obama has already shattered the Republican hold on the South. After months of mocking the Obama campaign for investing in Virginia and North Carolina, the McCain campaign is now putting its two most highly prized resources -- money and candidate's time -- into trying to hold those two states. Even if McCain somehow succeeds in keeping those states, he will have done so by diverting resources from other states, such as Colorado, Missouri, or Florida. As we stand today, Barack Obama's campaign in the South has already paid dividends in this presidential race.
We may see more of a payoff in November. Virginia stands an excellent chance of going to the Democrat for the first time in a Presidential election since 1964. North Carolina, for the first time since 1976. Republicans have already given up on the Senate seat in Virginia and are pessimistic about the seat in North Carolina. Republicans are worried about Senate seats in Mississippi and Georgia. These races are competitive enough that the Republican Party cannot devote time and money elsewhere at the expense of the South, so even if these races do not wind up with Democratic victors, they have still contributed to the chances of great Democratic gains nationwide.
These states just may go blue anyway. It's about turnout. Early voting has started in several states (the link allows you to see if there is an early voting location near you). Obama is already inspiring heavy Democratic turnout in states like Georgia. Convincing uncommitted voters to support Obama-Biden in the immediate future is important, but so is organizing the final push to ensure November 4, 2008 will be the day Americans can exhale in relief, and in hope for the change we need. The Republicans usually count on a heavy final-72-hour GOTV push. We have a heavy final-month GOTV push to counter, and every day is crucial to making the potential of these poll numbers reality.
The Obama campaign has stayed focused on registering new voters and turning everyone out. That, and the presence of an outstanding candidate at the top of the ticket, add up to a strategy that shatters the GOP's virtual lock on the South.