As a member of the Democratic Party, and a relatively young guy (2000 was the first year I was eligible to vote for President), I'm 0-2 in the big race. And knowing our party as I do, and with Nate Silver over at 538 predicting a 89.2% chance for an Obama win, what could the Democrats do this year to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory?
After thinking about what pitfalls may be out there for us, I've come to the conclusion that the only way for us to lose would be to essentially quit. Throw in the towel, believing we have this thing won, and not actually show up to cast the ballots. I don't believe this is very likely since the enthusiasm is so strong on our side this year, but I was looking for any little sliver of a way we could blow it.
So since we're not going to blow it this year, is there anything else McCain can do to improve his odds of winning? Below the fold I express my concern for the McCain campaign.
This was a bad year for Republicans. Ok. Maybe bad isn't the right word. This is a disastrous year for Republicans. Their brand is complete trash. So McCain was obviously a bit optimistic believing he was going to compete in states like Michigan, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. But until recently, Michigan, New Hampshire, Minnesota and Pennsylvania had a few polls out that had it relatively close.
Hours before the Palin joke of a debate last week, the McCain campaign announced(leaked) they were pulling out of Michigan. This caused a firestorm and even deluded Palin said she wanted to go back to Michigan. Their campaign has been completely off message and weak on discipline. "Lose lips sink ships?"
What I'm asking McCain is "why the hell are you still in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Minnesota? You're getting your doors blown off in these states. Meanwhile you're losing significant ground in Virginia, Ohio, North Carolina, Nevada, Colorado, and even friggin Omaha Nebraska!"
The offensive game is over for McCain. They lost. Obama is practically a lock to hold on to all Kerry states.
Nate at 538:
when coupled with his newfound strength in Pennsylvania, our model now assigns Obama a 69 percent chance to hold onto all of John Kerry's blue states from 2004.
And now McCain wants to continue this charade of competing in what are now double digit blue states? What a disaster of a campaign. Who is advising this guy? The same people that ran Bush's presidency into the ground?
So what does McCain do instead of moving resources and changing strategy? He moves negative. But he doesn't just go negative, he announces he's going negative through campaign leaks.
"If we keep talking about the economic crisis, we’re going to lose."
The Ayers thing is a joke. The Wright thing is a joke. These have about as much chance of sticking when people are concerned about their retirement accounts, as Palin removing herself from the ticket before the election.
McCain's toast. His political career is over, and I expect him to finish out his term as a Senator and then ride off into the sunset. If he remains in the Senate after 2010 his brand as a "maverick" is so tarnished, he'll be worthless in the reduced minority of the Senate. Who will take him seriously after running one of the most poorly assembled presidential campaigns in quite some time?
Is there anything McCain can do to save himself? I don't think so. But if he's going to, he better start in the debate tonight, and if he brings up the nasty stuff (which he will) we'll know the train has completely jumped the track.
Breaking news right now on CNN's website. Just a banner up so far.
Federal Reserve reports consumer borrowing in August fell for the first time since January 1998, according to The Associated Press.
Not to mention the DOW is down another 300+ points as of this writing today.
How silly of me to think that Americans want to hear discussion on the economy. It is clear now that they want to know about the real things that affect their lives. Like what some guy was doing 40 years ago or so when Obama was 8 years old. Silly me. I'm just a stupid American. What do I know?