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There are many indicators that there is a secular shift underway as the appearance of a crisis is now looming over us. What does that mean? It means a rollback to more traditional values, xenophobia, nationalism, and conservative lifestyles. This shift is going to be massive and shocking in it's scale as progressive social positions get chucked overboard to save the sinking ship of culture. How is that going to affect an Obama presidency? How will he incorporate the cultural shift and crisis into his leadership approach? He's absolutely spot on, it WON'T be politics as usual.

What are some of the indicators? The poor reception of anti-War films at the box office and the lowest Acedemy Awards ratings. The lowest rated Emmys of all time and poor ratings among fall premiers.

There is a cultural backlash underway. McCain is going to be on the receiving end. Like Mr. Miyagi said "squash like grape".

I'll be leaning heavily on the historical premises laid out in Strauss and Howe's work The Fourth Turning. Here are some more cultural indicators.

Mall's are emptying. (Culture shift and change of lifestyle)

Christmas sales look to be going in the toilet. (Hardship and culture shift)

GM is in merger talks with Chrysler. (Hardship and change of lifestyle)

OPEC is talking about cutting production, further increasing pressure on the global economies. (Hardship, lifestyle, with nationalistic and xenophobic underpinnings)

Illegal immigration bubbling to the surface again through the mortgage fiasco. (Culture shift, xenophobia, nationalism)

Voter scandals with ACORN. Do you even need a link? (Culture shifting aspects here)

All of this will lead to a major backlash against McCain.

Obama is also from the right generation (a Boomer) and generational archetype (a Prophet). Going back to the 17th century all prophet generation politicians have been in high office DURING the 4th turning crisis.

Prophets are values-driven, moralistic, focused on self, and willing to (see other people) fight to the death for what they believe in. They grow up as the increasingly indulged children of a High, come of age as the young crusaders of an Awakening, enter midlife as moralistic leaders during an Unraveling and are the wise, elder leaders of the next Crisis. The Boomers are an example of a Prophet generation

If you plot the secular cycle generationally Obama will be our next president. Obama is in the same generational track as FDR (or Lincoln) at present. He is a generational reformer that will deal with the crisis issues that we are soon to face.

On the remote chance that McCain wins the backlash against RINO's will be immense, but I still have my doubts about the likelihood of a successful  McCain Presidency.

Based on my observations of cultural and historical indicators I predict that John McCain will lose in a landslide, garnering less than 200 electoral college votes. And yes I do know what the electoral map looks like right now.

Originally posted to I Art Laughing on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 11:25 PM PDT.

Poll

By how many Electoral Votes will he lose by?

7%5 votes
4%3 votes
4%3 votes
1%1 votes
5%4 votes
5%4 votes
19%14 votes
52%37 votes

| 71 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  Low rataings for schlock tv predict a cultural (5+ / 0-)

    revolution that will suddenly overwhelm the building tsunami for Obama?

    Get out much?

    What's so hard about Peace, Love, and Truth and Progress?

    by melvin on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 11:30:04 PM PDT

  •  What is Obama Doing? Why???!! (7+ / 0-)

    Why isn't Obama ahead by 20 points. In an economy like this, he should be at least at 60%. That very fact says that McCain will win. If he can't reach 60% in a situation like this, he must be doing something wrong. Maybe it's because Latinos who are supporting him at 60-70% are leaving him? Maybe women who are supporting him almost by the same margin are leaving him? Maybe it's because Hillary people are not seeing Hillary campaigning for Obama and they're leaving him? Oh God, what can we do????

    <snark>

  •  Obama will crush you REPUKES! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    chrislefty

    When we democrats CRUSH you repukes in november and your pathetic tired conservafascism is dead in the water i want you to remember that i was the poster that broke you that good news! Clown!

  •  I TOLD you (12+ / 0-)

    not to eat those mushrooms!
    Now look what you've done!

    faith is no substitute for empirical evidence

    by Rudyard on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 11:32:38 PM PDT

  •  I knew the Emmys were trouble (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    exotrip, parakinesis, I Art Laughing
  •  A moment of silence (15+ / 0-)

    for the precious electrons who gave up their very orbits to bring you this...this...oh hell, I give up.  

    -- Hope is the adrenaline of the mind. --

    by Druid800 on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 11:34:08 PM PDT

  •  Is this for real? No, really... nt (2+ / 0-)

    "No way, no how, no Palin war with Russia." --KariQ

    by andrewj54 on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 11:34:45 PM PDT

  •  Banana banana banana (7+ / 0-)

    Since you didn't include a snark tag, I will assume you are serious. So, I will give you a pointer. You could have constructed your "argument" more simply:

    banana banana banana
    banana banana banana
    banana banana banana
    banana banana banana
    banana banana banana
    banana banana banana
    banana banana banana
    banana banana banana
    banana banana banana
    banana banana banana
    banana banana banana
    banana banana banana
    banana banana banana
    banana banana banana

    Therefore, <insert assertion here>

    See how much simpler that was? Just like you have done, I have rattled off meaningless nonsense that doesn't point to any conclusion, and then made an assertion unsupported by anything that I have said.

    McCain 08: The Doubletalk Express

    by A Citizen on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 11:35:58 PM PDT

  •  We will know how brilliant you are on November (2+ / 0-)

    5th.

    If and when on that day you are found to be a to be a total idiot, will you stop trolling?

    We shall overcome, someday. Yes we can.

    by Sam Wise Gingy on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 11:39:34 PM PDT

  •  this moron is an Alaskan... (2+ / 0-)

    hasn't your state been through enough?

    Politics didn't lead me to working people. Working people led me to politics. -- Barack Obama

    by JackieandFritz on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 11:40:29 PM PDT

  •  Adjust your meds, Mcainiac (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ssgbryan, Luthien Tinuviel

    I'm worried about you. Is it scary where you are?

    Ah no, it's always just my luck to get/ One perfect rose

    by kat68 on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 11:40:47 PM PDT

  •  I don't get it. (4+ / 0-)

    And I don't want it, whatever you're on.

    Barack Obama, 44th President of the United States

    by winsock on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 11:41:43 PM PDT

  •  An American Carol also tanked at the Box Office.. (4+ / 0-)

    Does that mean conservatism is officially dead?

  •  Dominionist? (2+ / 0-)

    Are you a dominionist by chance?  There is something familiar about your rhetorical style and grasp of detail that strikes me as particularly dominionist.  Wow.

    •  Good call. (0+ / 0-)

      And no I don't think Obama is the anti-Christ, that's more McCain's modus operendi.

      "The Internet makes you stupid." Something Awful

      by I Art Laughing on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 11:45:38 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Maybe it had to do with the scripture reference (0+ / 0-)

      and the lack of me mentioning a "rapture" though?

      "The Internet makes you stupid." Something Awful

      by I Art Laughing on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 11:46:55 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Nothing so obvious (2+ / 0-)

        It was more a function of that special hermeneutic style that I have come to associate with Palin's theological perspective.  No one else sees things quite so clearly?  Dontcha think?

        •  And they think I'm silly. Hehe. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ratmach

          "The Internet makes you stupid." Something Awful

          by I Art Laughing on Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 12:05:55 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Ha! (0+ / 0-)

            Thank you.  You've made my evening.

          •  You betcha, by gosh! (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            pipsopinion

            "Any dictator would admire the uniformity and obedience of the U.S. media." -- Noam Chomsky

            by ratmach on Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 12:38:28 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  They don't know (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ratmach

            That you are kidding.  That's what we have come to in this country.  A person can write what you have written, throw a bunch of complete nonsense on the page, and be taken seriously.  It's ap-Palin-g really.

            •  Glad to get your insight into this community, (1+ / 0-)

              especially since you've only been here since about Noon today.

              Nice credibility, and great way to introduce yourself to the community!

              I trust the Obama-Biden campaign. These folks know what the hell they are doing.

              by Jennifer Clare on Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 01:08:53 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  That was nasty. (0+ / 0-)

                What else do you know about me?

                •  Absolutely nothing, which is the point. (2+ / 0-)

                  Introduce yourself around and build up some relationships here before you make sweeping general statements like "they don't know" that the diarist is "kidding" and lament what we have become in this country based on a community (yes, Daily Kos is a community, many of us even get together in person every year) that you are not familiar with.

                  Showing up at a party and making judgements about a bunch of people who have known each other for years when you have just shown up for the first time is not exactly the best way to ingratiate yourself with the group you're presumably trying to become a part of.

                  I trust the Obama-Biden campaign. These folks know what the hell they are doing.

                  by Jennifer Clare on Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 01:25:37 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  OK, I will. (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    jeno mules, I Art Laughing

                    I'm a resident of the pacific northwest, I live on an island, I take a boat to get to work, I grow food for my family of four, I have a poodle (have fun with that one) a cat who excels at mousing, who always brings more corpses when anyone of us under stress.  I have way too much education, I write, I teach, I am a depth psychologist working in seattle as a psychoanalytic psychotherapist.  I am married to an americanist who teaches at a liberal arts college.  I have been reading kos for about a year, I am a newcomer, and I never thought I would have to present my credentials after making banter.  For the record I did not make a SWEEPING generalization- I made a specific one.  The judgement I have made about the kos community is that I feel at home in it, I nod my head when I read it, it allows me to take air into my lungs when I can't stand the political atmosphere any longer.I am not trying to ingratiate myself to the kos community- and if that is something I have to do to be here, then I guess I have been wrong in my impressions.  I hope I have not been wrong.

  •  Sorry, you are (5+ / 0-)

    full of shit.

    Let's get some Democracy for America

    by murphy on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 11:43:30 PM PDT

  •  BTW (1+ / 0-)

    Many Illegal immigrants are going home, because work has dried up here.

    The draw is no longer here.

  •  I take offense to the statement that Obama (2+ / 0-)

    is a Gen X'er.  Obama was born at the end of the Baby Boom, just a few months before me.

  •  Weirdo. Seriously! (1+ / 0-)

    This site has witnessed an increase in troll activity as the race quickly slips from McCain's grasp.  Most of it is just bitterness and resentment toward our side prevailing.  This however, is just plain bizarre and indicates that the diarist is an oddball.

    "My sister in law is an oak tree. No she's a manhole cover. I've got a mind like a jukebox. Hey, didn't you kill my brother?" Alexei Sayle

    by lying mcliar on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 11:48:23 PM PDT

  •  You Need Therapy (2+ / 0-)

    Badly...I have some numbers and names for you.

  •  Is the number of trolls (2+ / 0-)

    a factor in the rapture index???

    "Perhaps revolutions are an attempt by the passengers on this train [of history] to activate the emergency brake." -Walter Benjamin (-9.62, -9.54)

    by The Partisan Against The Clock on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 11:51:01 PM PDT

  •  Yeah right. When the moon is in the 7th House and (4+ / 0-)

    Jupiter aligns with Youranus.

  •  You really should hurry and add the snark tag (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ratmach, I Art Laughing

    I mean, I was the only one who tipped your jar because I thought it was obvious snark and it made me laugh.

    Please tell me it was everyone else who just didn't get it, and you weren't being serious.

  •  Probablity of McCain landslide... (2+ / 0-)

    is about the same as the probability that the earth will fly off its axis tomorrow.

  •  This is why I support throwing these assholes (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sortalikenathan

    an anvil.  

    I don't want to see them loose, i want to see them crushed.  I want them to crawl into their bible and die in it's pages praying to be saved, only to find out no one is going to save them.

    These idiots have held back the human race with their backwards views.  

    UGH, they get me so angry.  

  •  I've read the 4th turning too (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    scotths, I Art Laughing

    It sounds like an Obama victory and Obama as the Grey Champion as well.  When they reclassify, the Boomer years will be extended to 1961.  
    Sarah Palin (born in 1964) is much more clearly an Xer .  And McCain is not at all a Boomer.

    John McCain's Something for Everyone Plan: Military draft for youth, SS benefit cuts for elderly, Middle Class destruction, stock market plunge for wealthy.

    by IhateBush on Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 12:00:58 AM PDT

    •  So you are saying that Obama fits the prophet (0+ / 0-)

      archetype of the spoiled boomers? I don't think so.

      "The Internet makes you stupid." Something Awful

      by I Art Laughing on Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 12:07:44 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Many experts continue to insist Obama is GenJones (0+ / 0-)

        As pointed out earlier on this board, Obama is not a Boomer nor an Xer. As many prominent experts have noted, Obama is a member of Generation Jones--born 1954-1965, between the Boomers and GenXers.

        Strauss and Howe's work has been seriously discredited among serious generations experts in recent years.  Partly becuase it's rigid insistence on long generations ignores the widely noted phonomenom of the acceleration of culture which has certainly shortened the length of generations to around 12-15 years.

        Any doubters should watch this video which addresses exactly this point.  It features many top pundits (including David Brooks, Clarence Page, Dick Morris, Juan Williams, Karen Tumulty, Howard Wolfson, Michael Barone, etc.) specifically talking about Obama and Palin's membership in Generation Jones, as well as the surprisingly big role that GenJones is now playing in this election.  The video is 5 minutes, and can be found here:
        http://www.youtube.com/...

    •  Actually, he was a boomer. (0+ / 0-)

      Went boom, five times. Six if you count that one on the ship.

      JOHN MCCAIN BEATS HIS WIFE?

      by Thomas Boyko on Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 01:45:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  why is it so important to everyone that (0+ / 0-)

      Obama be a boomer? George Washington was a nomad and he is probably remembered as our most significant early leader for our new nation!

      Perhaps more significantly FDR was right on the cusp between a prophet and a nomad generation just as Obama is (they are 1 year apart in the cycle). I suspect being close to a cusp might actually be important for a leader who can combine qualities of both the generation before and the generation after. Obama seems to have a boomer idealist but clear nomad underpinnings.

  •  Pure Silliness (0+ / 0-)

    I doubt even you believe the sill stuff you wrote.

    Political Expediency: Its The New Black!

    by BentLiberal on Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 12:02:43 AM PDT

  •  Really? (2+ / 0-)

    Obama is also from the wrong generation (an Xer) and generational archetype (a nomad). Going back to the 17th century no nomad generation politician has been elected to high office BEFORE the 4th turning crisis.

    I think my placemat at my favorite Chinese restaurant made more sense (and it claims everyone born in the same year is similar).

    Love that "power of the purse!" It looks so nice up there on the mantle (and not the table) next to the "subpoena power."

    by Sacramento Dem on Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 12:09:30 AM PDT

  •  this diary (0+ / 0-)

    is VERY confused.

    Do you even know the meanings of the terms you use?

    You trolls are in for a rude awakening on Nov. 4. You have no idea the ecstasy we will be in seeing your sad faces when Obama is sworn in.

  •  Make your poll more inclusive to the optimists (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    scotths, I Art Laughing

    among us.

  •  I think you are misinterpreting Strauss and Howe (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Izixs, I Art Laughing

    Obama is also from the wrong generation (an Xer) and generational archetype (a nomad). Going back to the 17th century no nomad generation politician has been elected to high office BEFORE the 4th turning crisis.

    What are your examples of elected leader prior to the revolution? That leaves you with 2 crisis. The civil war with the prophet Lincoln... and... The depression/ww2 with the last year cusper prophet FDR! FDR was almost a nomad, only born 1 year earlier in the cycle than Obama. That point in the cycle seems to combine prophet idealism with nomad practicality.

    There are many indicators that there is a secular shift underway as the appearance of a crisis is now looming over us. What does that mean? It means a rollback to more traditional values, xenophobia, nationalism, and conservative lifestyles. This shift is going to be massive and shocking in it's scale as progressive social positions get chucked overboard to save the sinking ship of culture.

    Some of what you say is here is on the right track. What you don't notice, is that it is not a rollback to the old values of the WW2 generation, but rather to new values that were introduced by the boomer generation. You are right that the culture will likely become more homogenous, but it isn't a step backward it is a step forward to something new! Also, note that the goal at this time is not to save the sinking ship of culture, but rather to save our sinking institutions, to rebuild them sometimes from scratch.

    For a different take on this consider the book millennial makover by Winograd and Hais. This book specifically discusses political realignments that occur as a result of the cycle. In reality, we are likely heading towards a more fiscally progressive government, similar to the new deal put forth during the last crisis. Obama seems the right guy to lead it!

    •  I see how you arrived there. (0+ / 0-)

      You missed the part about the conservative rebound though.

      "The Internet makes you stupid." Something Awful

      by I Art Laughing on Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 12:41:42 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  was there a conservative (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        I Art Laughing

        rebound in 1929? Certainly not fiscally!

        •  Not at all. (0+ / 0-)

          The rebound happened during the crisis and resulted in the GI High era boringness.

          Thank God for the Boomers to come along and throw a wrench into that Orwellian nightmare.

          "The Internet makes you stupid." Something Awful

          by I Art Laughing on Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 12:53:01 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  but was the GI high boringness (0+ / 0-)

            a snap back or a snap to something new? The millennials are building a new common culture which will likely become the predominant culture in the next high. Characteristics:

            1. HIghly multicultural, the millennials hardly notice race and interact comfortably with all races. In many ways they are achieving silent gen. MLKs dream he annunciated at the beginning of the awakening.
            1. Comfort with gays and lesbians. For the first time they are becoming full and accepted members of society.
            1. Strongly progressive politically. Believes government can and should help with social programs. Believes in the power of organizing and community.

            This isn't a snap back on social issues, but a snap to a new more modern but yes homogenous culture!

            •  It was a snap back to a simple (0+ / 0-)

              "government issue" life and a retraction from the emotionally scarring they suffered during the crisis.

              Can YOU imagine storming Omaha beach, or Iwo Jima after suffering through the Depression?

              They just wanted to be left the hell alone and try and pretend to have a normal life without the drama.

              That's why the boomers and the 60's were so perplexing to the GI's.

              "The Internet makes you stupid." Something Awful

              by I Art Laughing on Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 01:23:30 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  not sure if that is the whole story (0+ / 0-)

                Can YOU imagine storming Omaha beach, or Iwo Jima after suffering through the Depression?

                Most didn't storm a beach, though. Most in the military never saw combat, but were behind the scenes. I think the point is that they came of age (as todays youth are) in which the world was screwed up. They were raised to believe they could fix it, (ie the first boy scouts, vitamins, big increasing in schooling) if they pulled together as a team. To them their whole life was about team work and accomplishments in the physical world. Following leadership and connecting with those around them seemed natural to them

                The boomers seemed perplexing to them because they came of age in an entirely different world. When they came of age the spiritual world was void and needed exploration but the infrastructure was sound. The GI's couldn't comprehend why the boomers were questioning values when they accepted theirs so easily and why they seemed to want to shy away from doing their "fair share" (ie vietnam) when they went happily and willingly.

                •  But there was a generational trauma (0+ / 0-)

                  I have known many people who were at Coral Sea (my 5th grade history teacher), Iwo Jima, Guadalcanal, Adak and Attu, Normandy, North Africa, and the Philippines, my grandpa was first into Hiroshima as a GI. Even though they are mostly dead now they affected me, imagine what effect those events and experiences must have had ON THEIR PEERS.

                  The whole country dealt with this, it was like Sept. 11th but it lasted 15 years (from 1929-1944). That effect is what actually CAUSES the generational experience that imprints them with their respective archetype.

                  "The Internet makes you stupid." Something Awful

                  by I Art Laughing on Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 01:39:24 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  yes.. that is true.. suffering together and (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    I Art Laughing

                    working together to accomplish what needs to be done. I don't disagree with the trauma being an important part of their generational experience...

                    My point though, originally you stated that a generational crisis would be about a sudden and strong reactionary movement which would make Obama unelectable in 3 weeks despite his large leads in the polls. (I notice you've now revised your position on that). I think my point is that we won't meet the crisis with conservatism but rather with a resurgence of collectivism which is exactly what Obama inspires. Socially the youth have accepted for the most part the liberal view of the world. They like gays, and people of all races and generally don't have as strong opinions about abortion. No sudden snap back on social values is likely!

                    •  The diary was a snark, (0+ / 0-)

                      it was a juxtapositional exercise to stimulate some brain cells.

                      Read it again and see for yourself.

                      "The Internet makes you stupid." Something Awful

                      by I Art Laughing on Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 02:05:16 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                    •  Of course I nearly got autobanned (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      scotths

                      for annoying some of the more knee-jerky folks. But those were some of the neurons I was trying to stimulate. They're off troll hunting elsewhere now I guess.

                      "The Internet makes you stupid." Something Awful

                      by I Art Laughing on Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 02:08:00 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  I hate conformists. (0+ / 0-)

                        Heh.

                        "The Internet makes you stupid." Something Awful

                        by I Art Laughing on Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 02:08:46 AM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                      •  people are a little touchie (2+ / 0-)

                        around here given recent events... Plus, most who saw "heading for a landslide" were probably looking for a nice uplifting diary about how the good guys were going to vanquish the bad guys and all would be well with the world...

                        •  Recent events? (0+ / 0-)

                          Huh what? I've seen some troll posts but I'm not sure what recent events you are referring to.

                          "The Internet makes you stupid." Something Awful

                          by I Art Laughing on Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 02:21:33 AM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  Mostly I meant in the campaign and world in (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            I Art Laughing

                            general...

                            McCain rousing up angry crowds based on misinformation outright lies and exaggerations.. The economy crashing and folks here feeling Obama winning even more important as a result...  The absurd ACORN related conclusions attempting to place the blame for bankers attempting to make huge profits on sub-prime loans on some community organizers who wanted to end red-lining and try to help people obtain a home...

                            Then you post a diary claiming that Obama doesn't fit the mold to be President, but McCain clearly does!

                          •  Heh, the polls rocking in Obama's favor (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            scotths

                            and people are still nervous and jerky.  I guess 8 years of Bush/Cheney has left us a bit PTSD.

                            "The Internet makes you stupid." Something Awful

                            by I Art Laughing on Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 02:37:24 AM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  The conservatives are finally seeing (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            I Art Laughing

                            how badly they are going to lose... Remember the business plot..  Conservatives can get scary when their back is to the wall!

                          •  After the schmuck confiscated the (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            scotths

                            gold (which was grossly immensely unconstitutional) I can only slightly blame them. FDR's scared the Jeebus out of them.

                            "The Internet makes you stupid." Something Awful

                            by I Art Laughing on Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 02:48:05 AM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  this time the objections we are (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            pipsopinion

                            hearing publicly have little to no basis in reality... Crowds chanting "drill baby drill" when their simply isn't enough oil to drill for... Bystanders calling Obama a "fascist communist socialist" who wants to take their guns and move them to cuba to make room for more illegal immigrants....  People calling Obama a terrorist but seeming unconcerned that no one is arresting him for this alleged activity...

                            I am just amazed at that crap that is gaining traction at the same time as Obama climbs higher and higher in the polls. We've heard so much about barriers falling between groups in society of late... Perhaps to some extent it is one of the last divisions to at least weaken as we head into the crisis. Maybe the tension has to build up to a certain point before something can snap. The cognitive dissonance perhaps needs to reach a certain point before they realize they are being lied to.

                          •  Some will never figure it out. (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            scotths, I Art Laughing

                            The paradoxical thing about cog. dis. is that some people become more adherent to their belief system in the face of contrary evidence. Folks who do this will generate a bridging story so that their narrative doesn't come crashing down on them.  Historically these are the ufo cult types, the end of the world is nigh crowd, etc.  Look to the people who already hold beliefs that defy a broad scope of "evidence" and these are the folks likely to do this in other elements of their discourse.  So for example the same folks who bring us generational curses and geographical demons, also bring us Obama is a terrorist anti-christ. Obama"s popularity then feeds into their story of how deluded the rest of us are about everything, and how powerful an anti-christ he is.  I don't know but I'm beginning to think that there aren't too many McCain supporters left who aren't somehow whacked.  I know that's a terrible thing to say- somebody tell me a compelling story of a well adjusted Mccain supporter so that I can let go of this fear that 40 % of this country has lost their wits- or never had them- maybe they are just not paying attention?

                          •  How do I know when the person (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            pipsopinion

                            with cognitive dissonance is not me?

                            How do you know it's not you.

                            We all see things through the filter of our own experiences and most people get hostile when their little eggshell of a worldview looks like it might get stepped on.

                            Go down to you local "bible-thumper" church and tell them that the "rapture" was an invention of a 17th century Counter-reformation Jesuit or that the obvious inconsistencies in their Biblical beliefs and you'll see what I mean.

                            By the same token, tell a collectivist that they are a tool and you'll get the same response. I see a lot of similarities in conformists in both communities.

                            "The Internet makes you stupid." Something Awful

                            by I Art Laughing on Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 09:34:26 AM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                      •  Oh. You revised. And me wondering (2+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        scotths, I Art Laughing

                        why everyone was in a tizzy. Hmph.

                        So, exactly whose neurons were you attempting to stimulate with such inflammatory material, your own or the night shift?

                        People are important; things are not important. Trust me on that one.

                        by Urtica dioica gracilis on Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 02:17:28 AM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                  •  Hey! My dad was on the SS Langfitt (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    scotths, I Art Laughing

                    & on the islands 3 days after the bombs were dropped. And I don't have any spare eyes or fingers! But you are right about the generational imprinting. Generational trauma is a bit more accepted as "science" with regard to tribal cultures, if I correctly understand what you're referring to.

                    People are important; things are not important. Trust me on that one.

                    by Urtica dioica gracilis on Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 02:13:18 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  It is likely that neither of us would be (0+ / 0-)

                      here posting if they hadn't dropped those bombs as they would have undoubtedly been in the Home Island invasion that "Dugout" Dug was planning. I think the casualty numbers would have been pretty dramatic.

                      "The Internet makes you stupid." Something Awful

                      by I Art Laughing on Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 02:16:04 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  I wouldn't go that far. (0+ / 0-)

                        The Langfitt was mainly a transport ship and mom was a resourceful lady.  

                        People are important; things are not important. Trust me on that one.

                        by Urtica dioica gracilis on Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 02:20:00 AM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  Grandpa said the whole country (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          scotths

                          looked as if it had been picked up and dropped. Not just Hiroshima.

                          He was convinced that an invasion wouldn't have been that bad, he was there and I was not. He also thought the second bomb was over the top (and that the first bomb was probably unnecessary or misused).

                          It was always and interesting if sensitive discussion.

                          "The Internet makes you stupid." Something Awful

                          by I Art Laughing on Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 02:24:59 AM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                    •  I'm not sure which transport my Grandpa went over (0+ / 0-)

                      on but he talked about it a lot. He took a top bunk near a ventilation duct and being a steamship fireman before the war he managed to eat a lot of food that the other guys couldn't stomach due to seasickness.

                      He also packed the squad BAR in order to get out of KP and guard duties. I guess shoveling coal had it's advantages (his nickname was "Tuffy").

                      "The Internet makes you stupid." Something Awful

                      by I Art Laughing on Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 02:53:33 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

    •  You know, I knew in my heart... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      I Art Laughing

      ...it is not a rollback to the old values of the WW2 generation, but rather to new values that were introduced by the boomer generation.

      I had a funny feeling in my heart that this day would come eventually, as a new generation raised to view the previous few decades' history in a certain way would come to question the answers they'd been handed to them (by late-Boomers and Xers on one hand and by the conservative movement on the other) and find out a few things for themselves.  Such a shame it should come so late, though--the breaks have just kept going the other side's way.  But better late than never, I guess.  I do believe in fixing the mistakes of that era, but from what I can tell I'm the only person in the world who can conceive of a difference between fixing mistakes and scrapping the whole thing.

      The '60s were simply an attempt to get the 21st Century started early....Well, what are we waiting for? There's no deadline on a dream!

      by Panurge on Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 12:48:59 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  it is the right time... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        I Art Laughing

        I had a funny feeling in my heart that this day would come eventually, as a new generation raised to view the previous few decades' history in a certain way would come to question the answers they'd been handed to them (by late-Boomers and Xers on one hand and by the conservative movement on the other)

        Weren't a lot of the late boomers and Xers the conservatives?

        I do believe in fixing the mistakes of that era, but from what I can tell I'm the only person in the world who can conceive of a difference between fixing mistakes and scrapping the whole thing.

        I'm not sure what you mean here... Many of the values which appeared during the boomers youth have become an important part of the values of the youth. Consider, enviornmentlism, peace over war, open mindedness with regards to culture and sexuality. I'm not sure what you would scrap exactly? (or what you would fix). Perhaps I'm not understanding....

        •  Yes they where "conservative" (0+ / 0-)

          but what does that mean when faced with the synthesis of all of the issues that come up in a crisis.

          The liberalism of the 60's is dying, but so is the conservatism. Who knows what comes out the other side? What are people going to value if someone starts chucking the plutonium around?

          "The Internet makes you stupid." Something Awful

          by I Art Laughing on Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 01:29:25 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  If the values of the awakening don't implant (0+ / 0-)

            in the society that results at the end of the crisis, it would be quite an unusual series of turnings! The prophets of the Great Awakening inspired our democratic form of government. The transcendentals  inspired the ending of slavery. The missionaries inspired the new deal. So... I would expect Boomer values to appear in the new culture...

            •  But not just liberalism....don't be shocked (0+ / 0-)

              to see Milton Friedman show up in the next High.

              "The Internet makes you stupid." Something Awful

              by I Art Laughing on Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 01:40:24 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Friedman in a high? (0+ / 0-)

                Seems unlikely.. I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the next awakening/unraveling though....

                Collectivism and social responsibility are typically important in a high. Friedman's "your on your own" sort of thinking seems like it wouldn't fit...

                •  Ayn Rand was even worse, she made (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  scotths

                  Dr. Friedman look like Dr. Seuss.

                  Atlas Shrugged was published in 1957....late High. Objectivism was more individualistic than "trickle down" (or trick or treat as I like to say).

                  My handle is actually mocking Art Laffer if you hadn't noticed.

                  "The Internet makes you stupid." Something Awful

                  by I Art Laughing on Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 01:52:18 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

          •  What's "the liberalism of the '60s"? (0+ / 0-)

            And how does today's liberalism differ from it?  How is it better?

            The '60s were simply an attempt to get the 21st Century started early....Well, what are we waiting for? There's no deadline on a dream!

            by Panurge on Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 11:24:55 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Idealism and hubris (0+ / 0-)

              not at all grounded in reality.

              The 60's liberal thought they could make up reality as they went. That the paradigm that went before them was some kind of grand conspiracy to subjugate them and destroy their individualism.

              The liberalism of today is going to be more inclusive and "establishment" and less about individual liberties.

              "The Internet makes you stupid." Something Awful

              by I Art Laughing on Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 12:01:36 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  OK, now you're just flailing. (0+ / 0-)

                But you're kinda being a troll anyway.  But here goes:

                Considering how things turned out, could you blame people for thinking what you're saying they're thinking?  Were those people mere "liberals"?

                How can you be more inclusive (where "Otherness" is normally the basis of exclusion) and less about individual liberties?  (What does "more 'establishment'" even mean?)  How can any platform like that be called "liberal"?  From what I can tell, you're describing something hardly anyone  would want to be part of, even if it does give us universal health insurance.  In fact, what you're describing is what "libertarians" already think of liberalism--and have thought since 2112 was released.  Your model isn't learning from old mistakes, it's just making new, opposite ones.

                Strangely enough, the '60s radicals and Rove-led neocons were, in fact, right to an extent; the socio-cultural patterns of organization and custom that we tend to call "reality" are, in fact, constructs that can be changed.  What they didn't realize is that changing other people's views of reality is sometimes tremendously difficult.  But the price paid in innocence lost for the Sixties' failure to understand this is fairly low compared to the price paid in blood and treasure in recent years due to the neocons' similar failure.

                The '60s were simply an attempt to get the 21st Century started early....Well, what are we waiting for? There's no deadline on a dream!

                by Panurge on Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 06:33:47 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

        •  It's not necessarily about "scrapping" anything. (0+ / 0-)

          It's more about understanding what's possible right now, how to move forward, how to use advances to set up further advances, and what a realistic attitude is really all about.  (Naturally, the conservative movement has learned all these things--no wonder people think of them as the "adults".)  People back then seemed to think "realism" meant capitulating.  They eventually understood that they needed to Be Realistic, so, well, most of them capitulated.    

          OTOH, there seemed to be a lot of utopian ferver back then, which led to too much disappointment when Hippie Utopia hadn't materialized by 1975.  And of course I could talk about the drugs...

          The things you've mentioned I wouldn't scrap at all, but I wonder if there aren't better ways to go about relating to the rest of the world than the youth movements of the '60s and '70s were able to summon--while staying true to our ideals as well.

          I've seen the official film of the 1970 Isle of Wight festival (kinda weird seeing Free in there with all the others), and it shows pretty blatantly the problems I'm talking about.  I mean, it seems some of Those Blasted Young People really did Expect Everything For Free (at least the music, because "music is for the people, maaan").  It's a laudable goal, and I think it's worth trying for, but lots of them just didn't seem even to want to understand that there was simply no model for that sort of thing as yet.  (As well, so many of the stories of commune life I've heard seem to revolve around how most of them fell apart due to the lack of people willing to put in their fair share.)

          Anyway, that's the sort of mistake I'd fix.

          The '60s were simply an attempt to get the 21st Century started early....Well, what are we waiting for? There's no deadline on a dream!

          by Panurge on Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 11:36:55 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Yar (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      scotths, I Art Laughing

      I'll second what ye saying there Scotths.

      I'm also prone to musing on combining this turning stuff with an idea of mine: If you recognize a pattern that self perpetuates, then you should have the tools necessary to fundamentally alter that pattern. Aka, the rule is X. We find out the rule is X. Because we now know X, we can study X. If we find out sufficient information about X from this process we can alter X into Y.

      So lets assume that Strauss's turning system is the rule of the day. We take a look at it and find elements that are unacceptable. Say we decided that the prophet class seem to much like ass hats and we'd like to have a cycle that didn't have them causing as many problems or just being nicer over all. Such a change will of course result in changes in the other archetypes too. Strike a balance between the give and take with the other groups and then you start to build a competing model of what the cycle could, or possibly should be.

      So you have the idea of what Y is now. The problem is now how do you change over to Y? The turning system has some interesting features that could foster a phase transition to a new system. The most obvious is the crisis period.

      A lot of action and changes are being motivated at a quick pace. Institutions of culture, government, society, ect ect are threatened and might collapse if not guarded or reformed. A cynical attempt to change the cycles would opt to just let them collapse. But such a collapse is simply a reversion to the last stable state of the cycle system at best, or at worse a transition to cycle system W (aka, things really suck!). No, the way to shape the battle is not to rely on traditional thinking and problem solving techniques, but to include in our general mode a common goal of leaving the old system entirely behind, to escape its vicious cycle of growth, righteousness, decay, and collapse. To do that, those whom build the new world need information...

      Well, I think this internet thing is helping a lot with that information thing.

      Anywho, musings off!

      •  prophets... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        I Art Laughing

        So lets assume that Strauss's turning system is the rule of the day. We take a look at it and find elements that are unacceptable. Say we decided that the prophet class seem to much like ass hats and we'd like to have a cycle that didn't have them causing as many problems or just being nicer over all. Such a change will of course result in changes in the other archetypes too. Strike a balance between the give and take with the other groups and then you start to build a competing model of what the cycle could, or possibly should be.

        I think we need to be somewhat careful here... Your assumption is that the prophets in general are causing more trouble than they are worth, I would argue that this may not be the case. It was the profits in the Great Awakening which rose up against the idea of strict Predestination and considered that perhaps everyone could be saved. The end result was a document that appeared during the following crisis which began "We hold these truths to be self evident...". The Transcendentals precipitated a bitter civil war, but brought slavery to an end. The Missionaries pushed forth the idea of social justice and societal sin. The new deal followed from this. It is still unclear what the world will look like after this crisis, but I believe some of what the boomers bring to the table will be significant. Perhaps this could be our first crisis without a major war (hopefully given that they figured out how to destroy the world in the last crisis!). Perhaps we could for the first time begin to reduce our impact on the planet.

        But in contemplating what you said....

        a common goal of leaving the old system entirely behind, to escape its vicious cycle of growth, righteousness, decay, and collapse. To do that, those whom build the new world need information.....

        Are you sure that which you seek is a departure from Strauss's turning system, or perhaps this is a vision for the new world that we can build in the crisis and high?

        •  We need the asshats in order (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          scotths

          to break out of the group think of the high.

          Boomers just had to break something, they didn't care what. We are the beneficiaries since we get to think for ourselves (at least for now).

          "The Internet makes you stupid." Something Awful

          by I Art Laughing on Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 01:58:35 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Oi. (5+ / 0-)

     title=

    George Bush is on the ticket and his name is John McCain.

    by Soviet Canuckistan on Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 12:37:46 AM PDT

  •  fivethirtyeight.com says 160+ (0+ / 0-)

    predicts 349.4 EC votes for Obama versus 188.6 for McCain, which translates into the 160+ range.

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