A new Survey USA poll has Barack Obama up 51%-43% in Missouri. Support in St Louis County has solidified where Obama now leads by 22%. St Louis City and County and the KC Metro area can carry the state for Obama if the margins are big enough. Predicted turnout for St Louis County is 80%.
Obama is winning in just about all segments:
SurveyUSA says three weeks ago, McCain held a 2-percentage point lead in the Show-Me State.
McCain is also losing ground to Obama in a number of voting segments, including men (49-44), women (53-42), whites (47-47) and both higher- and lower-income residents. Obama leads among AA voters by 84-11.
In St. Louis, Obama's pushed his lead from 5% three weeks ago to 22% in the latest survey, which has a 4.3% margin of error.
I just heard this on KMOX while driving home - it's not up on SUSA's website yet. I'll update with internals when they're posted.
Update [2008-10-13 13:7:52 by Glic]:Link to internals:
In Missouri, John McCain's Lead Among White Voters Has Evaporated: In an election for President of the United States in battleground Missouri today, 10/13/08, three weeks until votes are counted, Democrat Barack Obama has momentum and a meaningful advantage in SurveyUSA's latest tracking poll, conducted for KMOX radio in St Louis and KCTV-TV in Kansas City. The contest in Missouri has swung 10-points to Obama since SurveyUSA's last track point, 3 weeks ago. Then, McCain led by 2. Today, Obama leads, 51% to 43%. Among white voters, McCain had led by 11. Today, tied. There is movement among men, where McCain had led, now trails; among women, where McCain had been tied, now trails; among higher-income voters, where McCain had led, now trails; and among Independents, where McCain had led, now trails. In greater St. Louis, Obama had led by 5, now by 22. In greater Kansas City, Obama had led by 16, now by 31. George W. Bush carried Missouri by 7 points in 2004, and by 3.5 points in 2000. The state has 11 electoral votes, which are critical to any Republican who seeks the White House.
Survey USA also polled for the Governor's race and the numbers continue to be great for Jay Nixon - he's up over Kenny Hulshof, 56-34.
In other battleground news, Marist has Obama up in both Ohio and Pennsylvania:
Obama - 48 49
McCain - 40 45
This survey of 961 registered voters in Ohio was conducted from October 5th through October 8th, 2008. Registered voters were interviewed by telephone in proportion to the voter registration in each county in Ohio and adjusted for turnout in statewide elections. Results are statistically significant at ±3.5%. There are 771 likely voters. http://www.dailykos.com/... The results for this sub-sample are statistically significant at ±3.5%. The error margin increases for cross-tabulations.
Obama - 49 53
McCain - 40 41
This survey of 943 registered voters in Pennsylvania was conducted from October 5th through October 8th, 2008. Registered voters were interviewed by telephone in proportion to the voter registration in each county in Pennsylvania and adjusted for turnout in statewide elections. Results are statistically significant at ±3.5%. There are 757 likely voters. The results for this sub-sample are statistically significant at ±3.5%. The error margin increases for cross-tabulations.
Update [2008-10-13 13:20:33 by Glic]:Today's Gallup has Obama up by 10: 51-41 RV, and 51-44 LV.