This started as a concern troll type diary pointing to potential pickup opportunities in the House that flew below our radar here at DailyKos. But after seeing where the DCCC is funneling their massive cash advantage all I could think was wow!
After the 2006 Elections I put together some Graph's to show how massive our gains were when looking at the winning percentages of the House races. We went from 49% to 55% of the total votes in the contested races. And our percentage gain looked great.This years map is even better and the DCCC is going after the close races with a vigor that makes me think Chairman Chris Van Hollen agrees with Markos on breaking the Conservative movement.
With all the gains we made in '06 you would think there isn't much ground to gain, but there is!
Follow me below the fold for more charts that show how we did, how were doing, and where we can get some of the seats needed to finally crush the Conservatives.
We are leading in 18 seats the Republicans won in 2006 and holding another 21 below 50% according to data obtained from electoral-vote.com on Monday (Oct, 13). There is 22 more Republicans under 55% that could be swept away by the tsunami that will be the 2008 election.
In 2004 the electorate was evenly divided and the House's win margins reflected that.
The Republican lead redistricting led to a a situation where the Republican districts had a lower average margin then the stronger Democratic Districts.
The surge in 2006 was driven by a 13 percent swing in the electorate.That surge resulted in a 2006 that is certainly the best thee Democrats have had in decades.This years polls show a potential Democratic margin in the House due to a 15% overall Democratic lead in the total vote and a 19% improvement over the 2004 margins.Our Orange to Blue list includes 11 House Candidates whose election could prove the power of the netroots. Our incumbents are looking strong with two notable exceptions Tim Mahoney in Florida's 16th and Paul Kanjorski in PA-11. I will detail 12 seats where we have pick-up opportunities. We can achieve enough gains in the House to break the spirit of the Republican Party and the Conservative movement.
OH-15: Mary Jo Kilroy (D) versus Steve Stivers (R): Mary Jo Kilroy was leading 47 to 42 in a SurveyUSA Poll from last month and 44 to 36 in a G.Q.R. poll taken last week. Kilroy had $1.16M on hand to Stivers' $0.86M and she has a $1.3M to $91K advantage in independent expenditures in the last month.
NM-01: Martin Heinrich (D) v. Darren White (R): Heinrich is one our best opportunities to pick up a seat. Heinrich has out raised White as of the July filing deadline though he had to spend most of it during the New Mexico primary. The DCCC put $144,000 into this race and the NRCC just pulled $500,000 out of the race last week. Heinrich also has a $1.1M to $240K advantage in independent expenditures since the Democratic Convention. This is Heather Wilson's seat which she won by 861 seats in 2006.
PA-03: Kathy Dahlkemper (D) v. Phil English (Inc. R): in Monday's (Oct, 13) Research 2000 poll for DailyKos Dahlkemper led 49% to 45% and she has received $770K in outside expenditures compared to $457K for English since the conventions. English did have a $600K cash advantage in July though, so Kathy could use all the help she can get.
NM-02: Harry Teague (D) v. Ed Tinsley (R): in last weeks (Oct, 3) Research 2000 poll for DailyKos Teague led 47% to 43% and he has benefited from $735K in expenditures from the DCCC. Teague and Tinsley were both barely over $100K in July after raising close to $1M but Teague added around $1.25M of his own money to Tinsley's $235K.
CO-04: Betsy Markey (D) v. Marilyn Musgrave (Inc. R). Markey's lead Musgrave by seven points last month and has received $1.2M in expenditures from the DCCC and EMILY's list in the last two weeks to counter Musgraves' $500K cash advantage from July.
MN-03: Ashwin Madia (D) v. Erik Paulsen (R): as the biggest mover this list Madia was over Paulsen 46% to 43% in last weeks SurveyUSA poll in a district where Jim Ramstad (R) won with 65% of the vote in '06. Madia has been aided with $1.18M in DCCC expenditures in the last three weeks. Madia's $900K on hand has kept him close to Paulsen's $1.1M on their 8-20 filings.
AK-AL: Ethan Berkowitz (D) v. Don Young (R-Inc): Berkowitz is in great shape for a Democrat in Alaska and had a 51% to 42% lead in an Ivan Moore Poll last week. The DCCC has put over $1M into this race while Young appears to be on his own. Don Young only had $366K on hand 3 weeks before the Aug 27 Primary while Berkowitz had $95K. Berkowitz is a long shot against Young especially with Palin on the ticket but with Young's ethics problems he has a fighting chance.
OH-01: Steve Driehaus v. (D) Steve Chabot (R-Inc): Driehaus led 46% to 44% in aResearch 2000 Poll last week and has been aided by over $1M in expenditures from the DCCC and the SEIU in the last month compared to under $400K from th NRCC. Chabot did have $1.3M at the start of July compared to $631K for Driehaus. This looks like one of the seats the NRCC will pump what little money they have into to hold.
MI-09: Gary Peters (D) v. Joe Knollenberg (R-Inc): Two polls came out on this race last week, a Mitchell Comm poll had the race tied at 43% but a Grove poll showed Peters leading 46% to 37%. Peters started the last quarter with over a $1M cash on hand but Knollenberg had almost $2M. This race may turn to Peters due to McCain's withdrawal from Michigan which has demoralized the Republican base there.
NJ-03: John Adler (D) v. Chris Myers (R): Adler has gained in the latest polls and a Democratic Grove Insight Poll shows him leading 38% to 34%. This is an open seat vacated by Republican Jim Saxton and Myers was viciously attacked in a primary fight. The DCCC has put over $500K into this race in the last month to the NRCC's $200K. Adler started October with $1.2M compared to Myers' $216K balance.
NJ-07: Linda Stender (D) v. Leonard Lance (R): In the Democratic Benenson poll released this week Stender leads 40% to 31%. The DCCC has had this race on the Red to Blue since the start and has spent over $1M since July on this race. Stender had over $1M to start the last quarter with last over $100K in debt.
PA-06: Bob Roggio (D) v. James Gerlach (R). This is the only Philly suburb district still in GOP hands. Lois Murphy came close in the last couple elections, but Gerlach is still there and the DCCC may be looking away from the 6th and in favor of the 3rd and 15th for expansion of our majority this time. While Gerlach has a 3 to 1 fund raising advantage Roggio reported over a quarter million on hand in July and with Obama's Philly machine could pull this one out.