The race for one of Virginia's representative to the House seats is heating up. Glenn Nye, the underdog in the race, is starting to edge up on Thelma "Bush Rubber Stamp" Drake.
Drake has run a typical Republican smear campaign against Glenn and it appears the negativity isn't taking hold as she would like. Of course, the sliding in the polls won't stop her from continuing her smear tactics.
Here is some information about the VA-02 district.
Demographic Breakdown
(from census.gov, based on 2000 census)
Total population: 643,510 (50.8% male, 49.2% female)
69.2% white, 21.8% black, 4.1% Asian, 2.6% mixed race, 4.4 Hispanic/Latino (any race)
Mean household income (2005 inflation-adjusted): $53,147 (US avg. $46,242)
Per capita income (2005 adjusted): $26,424 (US avg. $25,035)
Families below poverty level: 7.8% (US avg. 10.2%)
Individuals below poverty level: 9.2% (US avg. 13.3%)
Previous Election Results
2006
Drake (R) 51% (88,364)
Kellam (D) 49% (83,476)
2004
Drake (R) 55% (132,946)
David B. Ashe (D) 45% (108,180)
2004 Presidential (total VA)
Bush (R) 54% (1,716,959)
Kerry (D) 46% (1,454,742)
Badnarik (L) 0% (11,032)
Peroutka (Constitution) 0% (10,161)
2002
Schrock (R) 84% 104,081
Amarasinghe (G) 16% 20,540
Glenn's campaign manager just sent out the following email outlining the details of a poll conducted by Bennett, Petts & Normington:
The following is a summary of findings from a telephone survey conducted among 400 likely voters in the Second Congressional District of Virginia. Interviews were conducted October 14-15, 2008. The sampling error for this survey is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. Party Identification: 39% Dem, 13% Ind, 47% GOP.
FINDINGS
Challenger Glenn Nye remains in a strong position to defeat Thelma Drake. Specifically:
With less than three weeks to go, Glenn Nye continues to grow his vote and trails by just five points, 42%-47%.
Now, Nye leads 47-34% among Independents, the critical group of swing voters.
Nye has also improved his name identification to 69%.
Additionally, perceptions of Drake have grown even worse since September and remain far below the critical 50% for an incumbent:
A majority now Give Drake a negative job rating—51% rate Drake’s performance as a member of Congress as "only fair" or "poor" while just 40% rate her performance as only "excellent" or "good." Among Independents, her job rating is even lower at 29%-59%.
Drake’s favorable rating is also low. She has a favorable rating of just 42% positive and 35% negative. In May, her favorable rating was 48%-29%.
This is great news and I expect her negatives to continue going up. The poll's margin of error is a bit high in my opinion but so are the party identification percentages.
The Virginia Pilot has reported on the status of the race and has provided a brief Voter Guide on where the candidates stand on some of the many issues that affect us all.
Here is a sampling of some of the questions and responses (my comments in [captions] and italics]:
What are the three primary reasons to vote for you?
Drake: I will keep fighting for bipartisan energy reform to create millions of American jobs, unleash American resources to reduce the price of gas and electricity and put us on a path for affordable wind, solar, nuclear and other alternative energy. Cutting energy prices and creating new jobs are critical to a strong economy.
I am passionate about health care reform. I know what it’s like to struggle to provide health care for my family and employees. Failure to reform our health care delivery and insurance system will bankrupt us. I have worked to enact these measures but have been blocked by congressional Democrats. I’m not giving up.
I am a champion for our nation’s military and veterans. I have been endorsed for re-election by the Veterans of Foreign Wars PAC and veterans and military groups because they know I am a staunch, dedicated advocate for the best trained, best-equipped, most lethal fighting force in the world.
[She is a staunch supporter for veterans when she knows Bush will approve a bill related to veteran's issues. Otherwise, not so much. She grades a "B" on the Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America scorecard. She initially voted against the new GI Bill when Bush indicated he would veto it but once Bush was pushed to sign it, she voted for it the second time. In truth, all Virginia congressmen and women score rather high on the test as Virginia is home to hundreds of thousands of active duty and retired veterans.]
Nye: Our nation faces both great challenges and unparalleled opportunities for success. While we face a dire economic crisis, skyrocketing gas prices and a difficult war in Iraq, our nation has and always will prevail and move forward. We simply need a change of direction and new leadership in Washington.
In Congress, I will work across the aisle from day one to find solutions to the economic challenges facing our nation in a pragmatic way that moves us towards a balanced budget. I will make certain that I represent our district by putting its needs ahead of those of a political party, and will fight for veterans’ benefits and infrastructure improvements in Hampton Roads. And I will look to bring our nation closer to energy independence and lower gas prices by working on a comprehensive energy solution that has eluded us for too long.
What current person of the opposite party do you admire the most and why?
Drake: Joe Lieberman. He knew supporting American victory in Iraq would bring vicious attacks from the anti-war wing that makes up a majority of the Democratic Party. Defeated by Democrats in his home state primary, he won the general election and continues to support American victory.
[Joe Lieberman? Seriously? That in itself is enough to boot the woman from office!]
Nye: I admire Colin Powell for his independence, fortitude and desire to put his nation first. I worked in the State Department under then-Secretary of State Powell, and I have admired his leadership and commitment to his nation.
What should you/Congress do about health care?
Drake: I absolutely oppose putting a government or insurance company bureaucrat between you and your doctor. I support providing more health insurance options, portability from job to job, including mental health and wellness plans and utilizing the best technologies available. I am committed to reforming and improving health care in our country.
[And she's committed to repeating McCain's talking points, obviously.]
Nye: The cost of health insurance is doubling every 10 years, and those costs are becoming extremely difficult for both families and business to sustain. Washington must find a way to provide at least a basic level of affordable coverage to all Americans to lower costs across the system.
These are just a few of the 15 questions asked and answered in the article. Although I don't agree with all of Glenn's stances, he is head and shoulders above Drake.
Also of note, today I received a mailer from the DCCC bashing Thelma Drake. The mailer didn't mention Glenn Nye specifically but it does show that money is being spent here in the VA-02 district by the DCCC.
Glenn Nye has an uphill battle ahead and I'm sure he could use more support.