Bottom line from the ground in Indiana is this: Obama has a chance. People are excited! In Classic Red Indiana! That alone is astonishing. But I wouldn't give him more than a Fifty/Fifty shot to take Indiana on Election night.
Some stories and amateur analysis after the jump!
Here's my favorite part of going canvassing today after work. I get the walk sheet from the Obama office, and my wife and I hit some suburbs a few miles away.
One House I go to, I ask for the guy, he comes to the door, I introduced myself as an Obama Volunteer. Before I can get any further, he shakes his head, and gives me: "Sorry bud, not interested. You got the wrong neighborhood."
This is why Indiana has a shot. Because his neighborhood was split about even between McCain and Obama. And this is Hamilton County, where they've sent Dan Burton to Congress for the last twenty years, where the only real elections are the primary GOP elections.
Lots of signs on lawns, again, split pretty even between McCain and Obama. However, the door to door tells a different story. People are truly conflicted. One woman said she voted Republican her whole life, but she wasn't voting this year because McCain scared her. And I'm serious when I say this; she seemed truly, truly conflicted about voting. She said she wasn't going to vote this year, then also whispered "Oh, he's just incredible, isn't he?" When we handed her some Obama literature. Then she thanked us for what we were doing for Obama. And this is a woman who has pulled the straight-R ticket her whole life.
But of course, not everyone is so conflicted. Plenty of easygoing, calm, "We're definately for Obama" voters in this neighborhood who love information about voting early.
If Obama wins, which, again, I have to be honest and say that he has at most a fifty/fifty chance of, it is going to be because of the ground game. Because McCain has ZERO presence here. Almost no commercials, no offices, no...presence. Sure, lots of yard signs, but I wasn't the first person to canvass this neighborhood. We're on the second or third wave! The Obama camp knows how to saturate these places and squeeze out every last vote, and with early voting in Indiana, I hope they bank enough confirmed votes to tap the deep wells in the rural counties and suburbs.
Indiana is excited, we're ready, and no matter what, it will be closer than ANYONE expected.