Last week at this time, I lamented what a lost opportunity it was that the Democrats seemed poised to let uber-wingnut Michelle Bachmann skate into a second term. As controversial as she has been, both before and after the 2006 election, there was no recent examples of overt moonbattery and her unfortunately named Democratic challenger El Tinklenberg was insufficiently funded and apparently left for dead by the national party, struggling to find a toehold with which he could give Bachmann the challenge she deserves. What a difference a week makes! First comes a poll showing Bachmann with an incredibly weak 42% poll showing, and then comes last night's clearcut example of Bachmann's insanity on national television only two weeks before the election, followed by today's infusion of cash into Tinklenberg's campaign warchest. Folks, we have a race on our hands....and one that is imminently winnable.
I'm a native Minnesotan with some pretty detailed knowledge of the state's election math. I'm generally quite bearish on my election predictions, but nonetheless deemed Bachmann too conservative for her R+6 district in the northern exurbs of Minneapolis-St. Paul. Unfortunately, Bachmann ran a relatively good campaign even as her Democratic challenger Patty Wetterling ran an almost unimaginably awful campaign. Wetterling managed to cede 8% of the vote (the margin of difference) to the left-leaning Independence Party spoiler.
MN-06 is a decidedly Republican district, but not particularly hospitable turf for a Congresswoman as fiercely right-wing as Bachmann. There are six counties that make up Minnesota's Sixth District and I tend to break them into three different categories when handicapping an election here.
The first category, with the smallest population, is the St. Cloud area, made up of Stearns and Benton Counties. It's assumed that St. Cloud, a city of 60,000 generally outside of the Twin Cities metro area, is a Republican town, but that's not the case. It's a college town, and particularly on Presidential election years, the high student turnout tips the scales in favor of Democrats. Both Al Gore and John Kerry won St. Cloud, and they won by larger margins in the smaller college town of St. Joseph closeby. Unfortunately, the terrain is Republican-leaning in the surrounding area.
The greater St. Cloud area is overwhelmingly German Catholic and socially conservative. Democrats have been known to be competitive here, particularly in the more rural Benton County on the east side of St. Cloud, but the larger social issues loom in a given race, the worse Democrats do. Bachmann is well to the right of the St. Cloud area on economic issues, meaning the current financial situation in the country could play a larger role than usual in the region's Election Day mindset.
Bottom line: with this being a Presidential election year, Obama is poised to run up the score with college students who are very unlikely to support Michelle Bachmann, particularly in light of her recent head-turning controversy. It's not out of the question for Tinklenberg to win both Stearns and Benton Counties, and he probably has to if he's gonna win districtwide. At the very least, he needs to hold Bachmann's margins down to just a couple of points in both counties and do better than expected elsewhere.
The second geographic category in MN-06 is western exurbia, as represented by Sherburne and Wright Counties, until recently two of the fastest-growing counties in the nation. This is toxic territory for Democrats with Sean Hannity-listening commuter populations who attend evangelical megachurches on Sunday mornings. George Bush won both counties by more than 20 points in 2004, and even hapless 2006 Senate candidate Mark Kennedy won two of his eight counties statewide in Sherburne and Wright. But things have changed alot in exurban paradise since 2004, and definitely not in a good way. There are literally ghost towns of brand new $250,000 homes in the region after all the foreclosures in the post-housing bubble burst era. Might the yuppies of sprawl-zone have reconsidered their past political allegiances?
Probably not by alot, but if Tinklenberg can hold Bachmann down to low double-digits or high single-digits rather than the 17-point victories she scored two years ago, Tinklenberg can still win districtwide.
Now, the third geographic category in MN-06 is its most heavily populated and most decisive. The portions of suburban swing counties Anoka and Washington that are within MN-06 boundaries exclude the more Democratic precincts in both counties, but are nonetheless places where a Democrat like Tinklenberg can overcome a Republican like Bachmann. Interestingly, Bachmann's political home is in Washington County on the east side of the metro area and bordering Wisconsin, but it was also her weakest county in 2006. She won it by less than one point. Against a challenger with more momentum than Wetterling had two years ago, Bachmann seems very likely to lose ground in her home turf, perhaps significantly.
As for Anoka County, the portion of the county in MN-06 is more conservative than Washington County, but Tinklenberg hails from the county's largest community of Blaine. And like Washington County, Anoka County is more economically conservative than socially conservative, meaning we're more likely to see a backlash against Bachmann's comments here than in the northern and western sides of the district. Even modest victories over five points or so in both Anoka and Washington Counties could spell districtwide victory for Tinklenberg.
This would be a tough district for just about any Democrat against an ordinary challenger. Had either of Bachmann's top primary challengers (Jim Knoblach or Phil Krinkie) prevailed in 2006, the seat would likely be in GOP hands for the foreseeable future, but for as long as Michelle Bachmann represents them in Congress, the district can become competitive at any given moment. Well that moment has just arrived and at one of the most opportune times for the Democratic Party. Let the cash keep flowing to Tinklenberg's warchest and let the Democratic GOTV operations blueprint their ground game like a military operation in order to make good on this opportunity 18 days from now.