This upcoming election has the apparent potential to drastically change the political face of this country. The bookMillennial Makeover by Winograd and Hais extends earlier work by Strauss and Howe (Generations and the Fourth Turning) in which a cyclical pattern of generations and periods in history are explained. Winograd and Hais extend this to describe how this leads to a serious of political realignments of an alternating idealistic and civic nature. An idealist realignment leads to divided ineffective government and a focus on social issues (1828,1896,1968). A civic realignment (1860, 1932) leads to a strong functional partisan government that is able to meet the challenges head on.
I believe there is an interesting addition to this pattern, alternating northern and southern uprising allow alternating influence by the northern and southern parts of the country. This fall for the first time since Abraham Lincoln we will elect to power a leader and a party inspired by the tradition of the northern parts of this country.
First a brief discussion of the generational cycle...
The books attribute these changes to a new generation coming of age. These generations alternate between a civic minded generation (the millennial generation, the greatest generation etc) and an idealistic generation (the generation of FDR, the baby boomers). In between these alternating dominant generations are 2 recessive generations (ie the silent and generations x). When an idealistic generation comes of age an uprising called an awakening occurs (ie the 1960's, the populist and worker uprising of the 1890's, the transcendentals).
These awakenings provide the seed of the crisis which occurs roughly 4 decades after the start of the awakening. For instance, the great awakening helped inspire the constitution. The transcendentals introduced values that led to the end of slavery. The values introduced by the boomers in the 1960's will likely find themselves a part of the new world as we rebuild from the current crisis.
The books above discuss these awakenings and the cultural backlash that occurs with each one. I think the books may miss a pattern of awakenings focusing on the south and north alternately with backlash in the other regions. First a brief discussion on regions...
The bookAlbion's Seed by David Hackett Fischer. Describes 4 main settlements in US America prior to the revolution. It is the first 2 of these I am going to focus on as these two almost always seem to wind up on opposite sides of electoral realignments. The other two are the gatekeepers, allowing power to pass from one region to the other:
- The puritans many of whom came from East Anglia settled in New England. Originally about 10,000 who settled on the Massachusetts east coast in the 1630's, they had multiplied into the millions by the early 1800's. They migrated and settled across the northern tier of states especially the upper midwest, western Washington and Oregon and parts of California.
- The southern Cavaliers. This group makes up what we think of as lowland southern culture. In large part these individuals came from Wessex and settled in the coast regions of VIrginia and other southern states.
The culture of these two groups was quite different. New England was largely a middle class society, most of the people arrived in families and consisted of husbandmen (poor farmers who owned their own land), Yoemen (middle class farmers) and simple gentlemen. There were virtually no relatives of titled nobility or servants. Land was distributed equitably with only a modest difference depending on rank. Education was highly valued and close to 90% in Massachusetts could sign their name. Government was in large part done through town meetings in which people would attempt to reach a consensus on the issues of the day.
In Virginia life was quite different. Englishmen of all ranks traveled to the southern colonies. Land was distributed in a very inequitable way with the higher ranks receiving large plots in desirable locations and the poor left with what ever was left. Most came to the southern colonies without a family, many as indentured servants. The structure of life was highly hierarchical and respecting the honor of those higher ranking was a very important part of life. Education was a privilege of the elite. Government was by a self perpetuating oligarchy with infrequent elections.
Two other major groups (the quakers, and the back country folk) settled prior to the revolution plus numerous smaller groups. I believe these 2 groups have a played a more passive role in determining the course of our government. A number of backcountry leaders have become President, they were frequently part of alliances with either the New England or lowland southern region.
Later large amounts of immigrants travelled to the new united states, however these new citizens tended to adapt the lifestyle and values of the culture which they joined. (Or is it that they join the place that first their values?). Thus, the values of these original groups shine through today.
The pattern is see is as follows:
1789 Initially a mix of parties, ending in the Jeffersonian Democratic-Republican party (southern liberalism)
1828 - Jacksonian Democracy (Southern Conservatism)
Simultaneous northern liberal uprising (transcendental etc)
1860 - Lincoln Republican (Northern Liberal)
1896 - McKinley Republican (Northern Conservative)
Simultaneous southern populist/immigrant worker movement
1932 - Roosevelt Democratic (Southern Liberal) (immigrant worker component)
1968 - Nixon Republican (Southern Conservative)
Simultaneous northern liberal uprising (counterculture)
2008 - Obama Democratic (Northern Liberal)
When an uprising occurs the political realignment represents initially the backlash to that uprising. For instance, most recently as the boomer awakening occurred in the north a conservative realignment occurred centered in the south. Reaction against the counterculture was key in Nixon's victory and strategy. This was similar to McKinley in 1896 when he spread fear and distrust to divide the urban whites from the rural whites and stopped William Jennings Bryan from making any inroads. Later while in the beginning stages of a crisis the situation reverses itself, the movement gains strength again (in large part led by the children of the original up-risers) and guides the country through the crisis.
Thus, this fall should be the first electoral realignment led by a Northern Liberal party since Lincoln and his Republicans in 1860. As this realignment is led by a northern party with its strength in New England culture I expect a somewhat different focus from Obama than what we saw from FDR in the 1930's:
- I expect more of a focus on equality of opportunity rather than equality of condition. By this I don't mean the conservative inspired disasters we've seen recently in which the safety net is cut out and no real opportunity is provided. I believe Obama will focus on providing educational opportunities, jobs, paths for those who were in legal trouble. I do not believe that this means he will do nothing to help those in need, but that he will also focus on providing genuine opportunities.
- I believe he will be more friendly to business and will at times prefer carefully and efficiently regulated private industry to nationalization. I believe he will also focus on improving opportunities for small business in part by enforcing anti trust laws and reinstating the inheritance tax. I believe this speaks to a key difference between New England and Southern culture. Southerners have traditionally been accepting of large hierarchical organizations and FDR's larger government approaches fit into this style of thinking. Obama seems to see a world of smaller connected pieces.
- Obama will likely attempt to create a more participatory government. He will hire the first Chief Technological Officer whose job it will be to create systems for two way communication between citizens and their government. I believe also he will follow more of a consensus based model when working towards his goals. This has already become apparent at times and has led people to believe he will be easy to manipulate and will not stick to what he believes in. Nothing could be farther from the truth, he is able to build a consensus while not sacrificing the essence of what he is trying to accomplish. He will not hesitate to fight when the need is called for, but he will not fight when other solutions are apparent.
- Educational opportunities and a respect for Science and Logic will play a large role in his administration. This should be quite a relief for those of us who have been frustrated with the recent logically challenged administration.
This November promises to be quite an exciting and historical election. For the first time in 148 years a liberal minded party with its roots in the northern part of our country will sweep to power and begin to undo the damage of the last few decades. Together we can begin to create a new world for ourselves and our children.