Kossacks in general seem to have a lot more time than Yours Truly - AKA The Mad Canvasser - to dissect polls.
As we approach the last few days of canvassing and persuasion calling here in IN (GOTV begins next week), I can do no more than offer a few personal observations from the ground.
For those of you who are interested in the situation here in the infamously star-crossed Hoosier state, here are a few Kossack links:
http://www.dailykos.com/...
http://www.dailykos.com/...
http://www.dailykos.com/...
http://www.dailykos.com/...
http://www.dailykos.com/...
http://www.dailykos.com/...
And a fairly interesting summary, cited by Nate Silver on his site, FiveThirtyEight:
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot....
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Okay, time for some would-be original content, based exclusively on my anecdotal experience. My focus will be what's changed on the ground, in the last 2-1/2 weeks:
1. Colin Powell's endorsement has made an impact, primarily on older, reluctant conservative male persuadables. I've heard this recently from a couple of over-50 men, both of whom described themselves as Dems. Most interestingly fewer and fewer voters tell me that they're concerned about foriegn policy - including McCain supporters.
2. Most solid McCains are concerned about fiscal discipline, not Barack's proposal to prevent extending the Bush tax cuts for the over $250K group. To a person, they're fully convinced that Obama will raise taxes on all income groups, no matter what you tell them.
3. The Ayers and Wright stuff has stuck - hate radio and Fixed Noise have done a pretty good job ... it takes a very long time to disassemble the web of lies here, even when dealing with the rare persuadable who will listen. Ditto ACORN.
4. On our end, the (justifiable) conflation of McCain and Bush policies has worked ... we do have quite a number of sporadically-voting Republicans/indies who will go our way, based on that reason alone.
5. Health Care is also a huge advantage for us - even younger voters with kids are thinking about it more and more, and the explosion of chronic conditions such as diabetes has made a huge impact on Hoosiers.
6. Hoosiers tend to be furious about the bailout, which seems to cut more favorably towards our end, if only because it serves to underscore the notion that wealthy folks are getting more than their fair share of the pie. McCain isn't necessarily doing himself a favor with many of the voters to whom I speak, when he remonstrates that Obama wants to "spread the wealth."
7. Chicago has cut back on its overall advertising here, esp. the highly-negative ads that were doing very little good among Hoosiers with "Country Manners" who believe that if one can say nothing nice, then one should say nothing at all ("We can't afford John McCain" - etc.). I think that's helped us a lot, esp. with older voters who watch a lot of TV ... they're more willing to talk now. Now all we need are some positive ads, with Barack speaking directly to the camera, and telling us how much he cares about average people.
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Back to the PPP poll, which is the best, most believable positive result we've seen out here, since before the GOP convention ...
My concern - which I don't believe has been analyzed by anyone - focuses on sporadically-voting Republicans and GOP-leaning independents.
One thing you have to remember about Indiana voters is that they tend to loudly declare their independence - they always "vote for the person, not the party." Of course, the person for whom they vote tends to have an R after their name, much more often than not!
Historically, there's been little need in this state for these "knee-jerk" Republicans and GOP-leaning indies to turn out. Our turnout rate generally follows the nation, at 50-60% of RVs. So-o yes we've registered a lot of voters, and energized many Dems who might have been disenchanted. And yes our people are turning out for early voting in larger numbers.
But given that the polls show that our "sister states" (NC, MO) are doing a lot better, my question is whether the underlying base of these habitual GOP voters (regardless of whether they'll admit to being Republicans) will decide to turn out? If so, we'll be lucky to beat Clinton's 5-point deficit against Dole in '96, which is one of the best Presidential results here in recent years.
One of our huge problems is that the rural, "low information" voters are extremely difficult to reach. We've overknocked and overcalled in the urban and/or semi-urban areas (c.f. Nate Silver's review of our Tippecanoe Co. office: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/... ), but we simply don't have the resources to "drive bell" all the small, ultra-rural counties. Even if we could reach those voters, few will talk to us, because they won't discuss politics with strangers. (This is mostly a problem with voters over 50 in the less rural parts of the state, but even voters in their 30s tend to follow that norm in rusticated areas.) Of course, no single one of those counties is going to make a huge difference, but they'll add up. Moreover, these voters won't have to wait in long lines, even if they don't vote early.
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We've worked like dogs in this state. I've knocked about 15,000 doors this year, and I was one of perhaps many Barack supporters who started "blind knocking" back in the first week of June. (The campaign didn't really move in here and open up offices until July. I got my first official campaign walk packet on 7/8.)
Personally, I dare not hope for more than out-doing '96 (i.e. losing by less than 5), doing well at the congressional level, and saving the paper-thin 51-49 majority that we have in the state house. In the last few weeks, all campaigns been doing a lot of "whole ticket" canvassing, so a result of that sort isn't out of the question. Here in Indiana, the Obama ground effort is run by the state party, and canvassers are encouraged to learn the talking points and deliver lit for everyone on the ticket. (The same is true for the other local campaigns that I knock for.)
Call me a wimp if you like, but I just can't set myself up for a let-down at the Presidential level. I guess that's what it means to be a Hoosier Democrat.