After Thursday, where the national polls were fairly neutral but the state polls were unbelievable, today we get a day where (by and large) the opposite was true.
The national numbers today look very, very good, as Obama gains in virtually every tracking poll, and takes his best aggregate lead in the trackers in several weeks.
But mixed numbers from the states, especially a few somewhat sobering sets of numbers from Rasmussen, complicate the picture somewhat. In all, we have 33 individual polls to look at, and they are something of a mixed bag.
Follow me.
PRESIDENTIAL: NATIONAL AND TRACKING POLLS
We have three new national polls today, as well as the GWU/Battleground quasi-tracker.
Democracy Corps is out with their new numbers. Easily dismissed by some on the right because it is a Democratic firm, it must be noted that their numbers are consistently fair. Indeed, if anything, their samples often favor the GOP: this one in particular is a sample with an 8-point spread on the question of who was supported in 2004 (the actual margin was 2.5%).
So, when Democracy Corps has Obama leading McCain by nine points (52-43), and has Obama leading by eleven in the fifteen Battleground states, it should be cause for mild celebration among Democrats, and mild concern among Republicans.
Meanwhile, two other pollsters enter the field today with internet based surveys (although, unlike Zogby Interactive, I believe they do random samples and not volunteer samples. Please correct me if I am wrong). The Economist chimes in with an eight-point Obama lead (49-41), while Harris Interactive has it at six points for Obama (50-44).
Our favorite little quasi-tracker gets the Drudge's favorite poll of the day award. GWU/Battleground has Obama up by three, shedding a single point from yesterday.
(By the way, kudos to Matt for FINALLY publicizing the event as a hoax. It only took him about four or five hours after the story broke to do so. Hey, maybe he was busy this morning.)
Four of the seven daily trackers show an Obama gain today. The biggest lift, perhaps not surprisingly, came from IBD/TIPP, where Obama now leads by four (46-42). Maybe the college set has lost the loving feeling for McCain. Remember, McCain led the 18-24 set by 52 points in their poll yesterday. At any rate, it is a three-point gain for Obama over yesterday's tracker.
Research 2000 has Obama up a pair today (going from O+10 to O+12), regaining their position as the tracker most favorable to Obama. Diageo/Hotline, which has been one of the trackers least favorable to Obama, also picks up a couple of points today (going from O+5 to O+7).
Meanwhile, we see a more marginal one-point gain for Obama from Gallup (now up to O+7). The only steady hand today came from Rasmussen, which holds for Obama at +7.
Indeed, the only trackers to go into reverse today were ABC/WaPo and Zogby, which is really not unexpected. Since those were Obama's strongest trackers yesterday, some degree of cooling off might have been expected.
NATIONAL POLLS
DEMOCRACY CORPS: Obama 52%, McCain 43%
THE ECONOMIST: Obama 49%, McCain 41%
HARRIS INTERACTIVE: Obama 50%, McCain 44%
GWU/BATTLEGROUND: Obama 49%, McCain 46%
TRACKING POLLS
RESEARCH 2000: Obama 52%, McCain 40%
ZOGBY: Obama 51%, McCain 41%
ABC/WASHINGTON POST: Obama 53%, McCain 44%
RASMUSSEN: Obama 52%, McCain 45%
GALLUP: Obama 51%, McCain 44%
DIAGEO/HOTLINE: Obama 50%, McCain 43%
IBD/TIPP: Obama 46%, McCain 42%
PRESIDENTIAL: STATE-BY-STATE POLLS
The big headline, without question, would be the Insider Advantage poll out this morning that, for the first time, has Barack Obama staked to a one-point lead in, of all places, Georgia. Georgia is a big electoral prize (15 electoral votes), and it seems almost inconceivable that it is in play.
Also present in the state polling are some rather disappointing numbers. Rasmussen, in particular, was a bucket of cold water today. Not only did they have McCain reclaiming the lead in North Carolina today, but they also had tightening results in both Iowa and New Hampshire. The other big poll dump today came from tiny Winthrop College. These polls are practically useless, having been in the field for close to a month. FWIW, they have Obama up one in Virginia and North Carolina.
Perhaps not surprisingly (and bring your salt), but GOP pollsters Strategic Vision still has McCain staked to small leads in Florida, Georgia, and Ohio. They also have McCain down only seven in Pennsylvania. Worth noting--no one has had Pennsylvania that close in over a month.
The good news, besides Georgia? SUSA confirms an Obama lead in Indiana, and InsiderAdvantage has Obama up handily in Ohio, and even up one in Florida.
Because of the SV polls, as well as the dusty ones from Winthrop, this becames McCain's best day on the momentum tracker today (reminder: momentum measured as this set of polls vs. the Pollster.com trend composite). In all, we have new numbers in thirteen states. McCain beats the spread in ten of them.
FLORIDA #1--InsiderAdvantage: Obama 48%, McCain 47% (McCain)
FLORIDA #2--Strategic Vision (R): McCain 48%, Obama 46%
GEORGIA #1--InsiderAdvantage: Obama 48%, McCain 47% (Obama)
GEORGIA #2--Strategic Vision (R): McCain 51%, Obama 45%
INDIANA--SurveyUSA: Obama 49%, McCain 45% (Obama)
IOWA--Rasmussen: Obama 52%, McCain 44% (McCain)
KENTUCKY--Research 2000: McCain 55%, Obama 39%, Others 3% (McCain)
MICHIGAN--EPIC/MRA: Obama 51%, McCain 37%, Others 2% (McCain)
NEW HAMPSHIRE--Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 46% (McCain)
NORTH CAROLINA #1--Winthrop: Obama 45%, McCain 44% (McCain)
NORTH CAROLINA #2--Rasmussen: McCain 50%, Obama 48%
OHIO #1--InsiderAdvantage: Obama 52%, McCain 42% (McCain)
OHIO #2--Strategic Vision (R): McCain 48%, Obama 45%
OREGON--Riley Research: Obama 48%, McCain 34%, Others 4% (Obama)
PENNSYLVANIA #1--Muhlenberg: Obama 52%, McCain 40%, Others 2% (McCain)
PENNSYLVANIA #2--Strategic Vision (R): Obama 50%, McCain 43%
SOUTH CAROLINA--Winthrop: McCain 55%, Obama 35% (McCain)
VIRGINIA--Winthrop: Obama 45%, McCain 44% (McCain)
NON-PRESIDENTIAL POLLS
Quite a bit of data downballot, with the sweetest news for Democrats being the precipitous slide in the fortunes of one Michele Bachmann. In MN-06, we see a pair of polls released, with both of them showing the three term incumbent in serious political peril.
Meanwhile, the Kos polls for the week start to come, with good news out of IL-10. A couple of Democratic internal polls tell us of pending good news out of FL-08 and AL-02 (though R2000 disputes the internal there). One dark spot, potentially: a PA-12 internal poll for the GOP shows Murtha in deep trouble there.
AL-02 #1--Research 2000: Jay Love (R) 47%, Bobby Bright (D) 45%
AL-02 #2--G.Q.R. (D): Bobby Bright (D) 50%, Jay Love (R) 43%
FL-08--Benenson (D): Alan Grayson (D) 52%, Rep. Ric Keller (R) 41%
GA-SEN #1--InsiderAdvantage: Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) 44%, Jim Martin (D) 42%, Others 2%
GA-SEN #2--Strategic Vision (R): Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) 46%, Jim Martin (D) 44%, Others 5%
IL-10--Research 2000: Dan Seals (D) 49%, Rep. Mark Kirk (R) 43%
KY-03--SurveyUSA: Rep. John Yarmuth (D) 57%, Anne Northup (R) 41%
MI-SEN--EPIC/MRA: Sen. Carl Levin (D) 58%, Jack Hoogendyk (R) 30%
MN-06 #1--SurveyUSA: Elwyn Tinklenberg (D) 47%, Rep. Michele Bachmann (R) 44%, Others 6%
MN-06 #2--U. of Minnesota: Elwyn Tinklenberg (D) 45%, Rep. Michele Bachmann (R) 43%, Others 5%
NC-GOV--Rasmussen: Pat McCrory (R) 51%, Beverly Perdue (D) 47%
OR-SEN--Riley Research: Jeff Merkley (D) 36%, Sen. Gordon Smith (R) 35%, Others 6%
PA-04--Susquehanna: Rep. Jason Altmire (D) 53%, Melissa Hart (R) 35%
PA-12--Dane and Associates (R): William Russell (R) 48%, Rep. John Murtha (D) 35%
VA-SEN--Mason Dixon: Mark Warner (D) 58%, Jim Gilmore (R) 33%
And that's it for a Friday. This is a football night for me, so I will catch the comments in the morning. As always, rec this if you found it useful, and add any new polls you find out about in the comments. Have a good one, everyone....