Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/20-22. Likely voters. MoE ±5% (no trendlines).
Brown (R-inc) 48
Ketner (D) 37
While you never want to see a double-digit lead for the Republican, these are actually pretty terrific numbers for a couple reasons.
First, incumbent Republican Henry Brown is under 50% reelect. That's always reason for optimism, especially so in an R+10 district, where Bush won by 22 points in 2004.
Second, Democrat Linda Ketner's favorables are actually quite strong - 40% favorable, 35% unfavorable. She even gets 25% favorables from Republicans, which is quite remarkable for an openly gay, progressive Democrat in a conservative South Carolina district. She has raised plenty of money, and spent lavishly in an effort to increase her profile; it appears to have been successful.
Third and perhaps most importantly, fully 32% of black voters polled are undecided. Black voters made up 22% of the sample used.
Ketner is getting 29% of the white vote, five points higher even than Obama.
If undecided black voters end up going for Ketner in the same proportion that decideds have - or to the same degree that they're going for Obama - that could be worth anywhere from an additional 5-8 points for Ketner. This would put her numbers in the low-to-mid 40s, and solidly within striking distance of Brown.
Brown got a free ride in 2002 and 2004, and had a token challenger in 2006 against whom he pulled 60% of the vote:
Brown has come under heavy fire lately (rimshot) for having set a forest fire in 2004, having refused to pay the fine, and having spent $100,000 of taxpayer money fighting the fine. Ketner ran a nice ad about this scandal:
Ketner is going to be the toughest challenge Brown has ever had from a Democrat. The odds are strongly against her winning, but it certainly can't be completely ruled out at this point.
On the web:
Linda Ketner for Congress
SC-FIRST CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT POLL – OCTOBER 2008
This survey was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Maryland. A total of 400 likely voters in the First Congressional District were interviewed by telephone between October 21 and October 23, 2008.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the district. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by district.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 5% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 196 (49%)
Women 204 (51%)
Democrats 148 (37%)
Republicans 180 (45%)
Independents/Other 72 (18%)
18-29 68 (17%)
30-44 132 (33%)
45-59 119 (30%)
60+ 81 (20%)
White 304 (76%)
Black 88 (22%)
Other 8 (2%)
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Henry Brown? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 10% 34% 28% 10% 18%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 44% 38% 18%
MEN 48% 36% 16%
WOMEN 40% 40% 20%
DEMOCRATS 21% 59% 20%
REPUBLICANS 64% 22% 14%
INDEPENDENTS 41% 37% 22%
18-29 41% 40% 19%
30-44 47% 36% 17%
45-59 42% 39% 19%
60+ 46% 37% 17%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Linda Ketner? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 9% 31% 27% 8% 25%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 40% 35% 25%
MEN 37% 39% 24%
WOMEN 43% 31% 26%
DEMOCRATS 59% 20% 21%
REPUBLICANS 25% 47% 28%
INDEPENDENTS 38% 35% 27%
18-29 42% 32% 26%
30-44 38% 38% 24%
45-59 41% 34% 25%
60+ 39% 37% 24%
QUESTION: If the election for Congress were held today would you vote for Linda Ketner the Democrat or Henry Brown the Republican?
BROWN KETNER UNDECIDED
ALL 48% 37% 15%
MEN 52% 35% 13%
WOMEN 44% 39% 17%
DEMOCRATS 8% 78% 14%
REPUBLICANS 82% 4% 14%
INDEPENDENTS 46% 36% 18%
18-29 45% 39% 16%
30-44 51% 35% 14%
45-59 46% 38% 16%
60+ 50% 36% 14%
WHITE 61% 29% 10%
BLACK 4% 64% 32%
QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?
MCCAIN OBAMA OTHER UNDECIDED
ALL 55% 38% 2% 5%
MEN 57% 36% 2% 5%
WOMEN 51% 40% 2% 7%
DEMOCRATS 14% 79% 1% 6%
REPUBLICANS 89% 4% 2% 5%
INDEPENDENTS 54% 38% 3% 5%
18-29 52% 40% 2% 6%
30-44 58% 36% 2% 4%
45-59 53% 39% 2% 6%
60+ 57% 37% 1% 5%
WHITE 70% 24% 2% 4%
BLACK 3% 86% - 11%