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Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/21-22. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines.)

McCain (R) 52
Obama (D) 41

Bush won the state 54-45 in 2004. There was some hope that Obama could narrow the gap, especially given his national gains the past couple of weeks. But alas, it looks like when all's said and done (and the unusually high African American undecided vote is factored in), Obama will likely perform along the same lines as Kerry did in 2004.

ARKANSAS POLL RESULTS – OCTOBER 2008
                                                                 
The Research 2000 Arkansas Poll was conducted from October 21 through October
22, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.



SAMPLE FIGURES:

Men                  286 (48%)
Women                314 (52%)

Democrats            252 (42%)
Republicans          180 (30%)
Other                168 (28%)

18-29                108 (18%)
30-44                197 (33%)
45-59                193 (32%)
60+                  102 (17%)

White                511 (85%)
Black                 83 (14%)
Other                  6 (1%)


QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?

                   MCCAIN      OBAMA       OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 52%         41%          2%          5%

MEN                 55%         39%          2%          4%
WOMEN               49%         43%          2%          6%

DEMOCRATS           23%         72%          2%          3%
REPUBLICANS         89%          5%          1%          5%
INDEPENDENTS        57%         34%          3%          6%

18-29               50%         44%          2%          4%
30-44               55%         39%          2%          4%
45-59               52%         40%          2%          6%
60+                 52%         41%          1%          6%

WHITE               60%         34%          2%          4%
BLACK                4%         83%         -           13%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 01:50 PM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  You would have better results if you had (10+ / 0-)

    polled Arizona instead of Arkansas.  New Cronkite-Eight poll coming out for AZ on Tuesday and it will be close.

    "Somewhere in Texas a village is missing its idiot."

    by Gramarye on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 01:52:31 PM PDT

  •  Eh (5+ / 0-)

    win a few, lose a few.  Oh well :)

  •  re (4+ / 0-)

    So another state votes against their wallet....

    "tloH evetS" - Steve Holt

    by cookiesandmilk on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 01:52:45 PM PDT

    •  To Be Fair.... (6+ / 0-)

      ....Obama's campaign has made absolutely no effort to ask for their vote.  Considering this is Clinton turf, it probably feels like a slap in the face to some that the Obama campaign seems to be dumping resources into every market EXCEPT the second most Democratic state in the country.

      •  Uh, to be fair (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        askew, ksquire, lauramp

        With polls like this, you can't devote a lot of resources to the state. There have been a few campaign probes in to AR, but, obviously, it's not really fruitful territory this year.

      •  Has McCain asked for their vote? n/t (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lauramp

        "Wolf, these post-debate instapolls just prove that America is in the tank for Obama."

        by skipppppp on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 02:04:09 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  He's Ahead. He Doesn't Have To. (0+ / 0-)
          •  Makes no sense (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            askew

            I'm sorry but that doesn't.  Your contention was that people in AR are mad because Obama has ignored them.  Yet McCain has too, but they're apparently not mad at McCain.

            Also, there are a lot of states that Obama isn't spending money in.  Arkansas isn't alone.

            "Wolf, these post-debate instapolls just prove that America is in the tank for Obama."

            by skipppppp on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 02:17:30 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  But Any Among Them..... (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              carolita

              ....that Bush won by only single digits?  And that have as lopsided of partisan advantage as Arkansas?  My contention is that if Obama is coming this close in Georgia by contesting it, he could winning in the much less expensive market of Arkansas if he had contested it.

            •  McCain has at least visited the state a few times (0+ / 0-)

              I don't recall Obama stopping by once. This is usually how it goes in Arkansas, though the GOP candidate normally has an even larger presence. The sad thing is that I believe the state GOP party is down right now.

              The press in Arkansas is predominately Republican and I think that severely hinders the Democrat's chances of winning the Presidency. What I believe most hurt Obama in Arkansas, however, was him being Clinton's rival for the nomination. The state seemed gungho on the idea that everything Clinton was great and everything Obama was evil, because people here are very simplistic in their good/bad guy mentalities. The Clinton's did too little, too late to make a real difference, though it probably wouldn't have mattered anyway, because the damage was done during the primaries.

              The results of this poll were expected for me. When Chuck Todd mentioned that we might see a closer race in Arkansas, I was hoping that he knew something I did not, because I just didn't see it happening. For the record, I'm not blaming anyone, but just saying that I don't find this poll surprising, considering the lack of attention given to Arkansas by Obama. It was probably the right move, but Democrats shouldn't expect much from Arkansas without giving it attention, because the Democratic candidate will always start with one foot in a hole, thanks to the Republican leanings of the state media, which must be overcome for the Democratic candidate to win Arkansas.

              Democrats -- Progress for the Working Class

              by rogun on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 06:49:42 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  In what way (11+ / 0-)

        is this the second most Democratic state in the country? It's gone Red for Bush twice, its two Democratic senators are among the caucus' most conservative, and it's the state that gave us Mike Huckabee. They send a Republican (out of four seats) to the House. Sure, they have huge margins in the state lege, but their voter registration numbers don't show any massive Democratic advantage (it's almost all indies).

        Not knocking the state. But "second most Democratic" really would better apply to one of Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Illinois, Vermont, New York, etc. Kind of hard to quantify how "Democratic" a state is, but by any logical explanation, a state in which the unpopular Republican nominee is winning by double-digits, worse so than Kerry, is not "the second most Democratic".

        •  My Recollection From 2004 CNN Exit Polls.... (6+ / 0-)

          ...is that Arkansas was second only to West Virginia in terms of the party affiliation of its residents.  And those identifications were not based on decades-old registrations of Southerners who haven't voted Democratic since 1960, but "what party do you currently affiliate yourself with?"

          I realize this is an imperfect metric for measuring support for Obama, but it does suggest there are large numbers of persuadable voters that no effort was made to persuade.

        •  Kos I think he thinks way (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          rogun, tresgatos

          Because with the exception of President, races there are dominant by Dems. In DC the two Senators are Dems, 3 out of the 4 house members are Dems. In Little Rock the Legislature has a super Dem majority, the state offices are dominated by Dems and the state elected a Dem governor in Mike Beebe in 2006.

          Problems with all this is EVERYONE IN THAT STATE IS A CONSERVATIVE DEMOCRAT. When it comes to voting on the national level the GOP nominee reflects their conservative views. This is the same for West Virginia.

        •  More like the most Dixiecratic (0+ / 0-)

          AR Democrats ain't like other Democrats.  This is possibly the most evangelical state in the US.  Certainly one of the most isolated, media market wise.

          Send Bubba and Hillary and Wes to stump around if you want, but IMOH, this time it's not worth the resources.

          Although, I'd love to see a nice kick to the balls for Wal-Mart and Tyson, union-wise

        •  But (0+ / 0-)

          If I remember correctly Huckabee might have lost his 1st election if the DNC had given just a smidgen of support to Jimmie Lou Fisher who ended up given Huck a good run for the election.

          I'm still not sure that Arkansas is ready to elect a black dude. Plus I still run into folks who are mad that Hillary did not get the nomination and are voting for McCain because of it.

      •  incorrect (4+ / 0-)

        It hasn't been a lot of effort, but Hillary Clinton was campaigning for Obama in Arkansas a couple of weeks ago and Bill Clinton is there right now.

        The campaign has three offices in Arkansas and is running Camp Obama training there.

        When polling in Arkansas shows that it is worth spending more resources there, then the campaign will do so.

      •  Obama Didn't "Contest" Mississippi Either! (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Murdershewrote

        So what?

        Whites there are still bitter about the civil rights movement forcing them to desegregate their lunchrooms.

        The redneck cracker vote is going to have to be dragged kicking and screaming into the 21st century. They don't like it and they want to hate them some "N-----s!"

        It's still more important that the White man not lose too much ground. A man's gotta take a stand after all.

      •  I don't blame him. (0+ / 0-)
        It would have been a waste of money & time.  Too many bigots, racists, and single issue voters here.  I live near Little Rock which is blue for everything but pres elections, for which it is purple.  Most other places are closer to red for pres.

        The terror alert has been raised to chartreuse.
        --
        This message was brought to you

        by cowgirl on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 10:41:19 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Any state with part of the Confederate flag... (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lauramp, jds1978, dotster, KimD, Murdershewrote

      making up the State banner will not likely vote for Obama.

      Larry Kissel mojo'ed me and I liked it.

      by David Kroning on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 02:00:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  "Health care would have been nice but now (0+ / 0-)

      at least gays can't marry and blacks are kept in place"

      Conservatism = greed, hate, fear and ignorance

      by Joe B on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 05:38:25 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I really Don't think AA's are undecided (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14, sulthernao

    I don't know why they are telling the pollster they are. I bet you AA's will show up in record numbers and vote 95% Obama.

    Choose Hope not Hate in 2008, Reject McCain/Palin

    by HouTxLib on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 01:52:46 PM PDT

  •  Gotta save SOME progress for the re-election! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    semiot

    I'm OK with the MOMENTOUS gains we have already made in the West.  :)

    "Jiminy God!" --Larry Craig, on the shocking notion that anyone might think he was gay

    by rlamoureux on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 01:52:58 PM PDT

  •  Disappointing..... (7+ / 0-)

    ....but I still say it's malpractice on the part of the Obama campaign not to target a state as Democratic as Arkansas given how cheap it is to advertise there.  Even now, they're talking about running ads in frickin' South Carolina, but not Arkansas.  I can see how some Hillary supporters in AR may see this as a "turn the knife" treatment of their state.

    •  Is the Obama campaign punishing (0+ / 0-)

      Tennessee and Arkansas for voting for Hillary in the primary?

      So I see only tatters of clearness through a pervading obscurity - Annie Dillard -6.88, -5.33

      by illinifan17 on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 02:01:48 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  lol, I doubt that (4+ / 0-)

        Obama didnt campaign in either state in the primaries, because it was likely they would vote for Clinton. Actually, never mind, I think Michelle campaigned there, that's when the TN GOP ran that ad smearing her, that I think even Corker and Alexander didnt like. I think it's just about allocating resources. One disadvantage to the expanded map is there are some states Obama cant visit at all.

      •  More Than Likely.... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        rogun, Othniel, chicago jeff

        ....they just made false assumptions about their electability in those states, just as they did in West Virginia until enough polls showed them it was within reach.  But I think Arkansas and Tennessee are apples and oranges in terms of Obama's would-be chances.  Arkansas was always gonna be an uphill slog...but post-2000 Tennessee was very unlikely to ever turn blue.

        •  Also Senator Pryor (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Anthony Segredo, rogun, supak, Mark27

          is unopposed - as to the situations in NC and GA - so there is no need to appear for him.

          All my relatives are voting Obama, except one sister who defected to the religious right, and I really think he will do unexpectedly well.

          Kos, the R congressional district in NW Arkansas has been that way since The War when it housed the Union sympathizers.  Like Eastern Tennessee, its cultural heritage is Republican, and not a Reagan "republican" one.

          God and ego are not equivalent expressions of reality.

          by Othniel on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 02:31:28 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  There is a Green running against............... (7+ / 0-)

            ..........Pryor, Rebekah Kennedy, and the one Republican Representative also has a Green Party candidate running against him too.

            I live in North West Arkansas, in a very rural area. And one major block to Arkansas becoming a bastion of progressive thought has alot to do with this being a hotbed of religiousity(Baptist/fundamentalist/Apostolics and some of the least educated preachers you can imagine drawing paychecks) and decades of being left out of the American economic mainstream. There are small pockets of out and out racism and some militia types too. But only in small numbers.

            Mostly the people I have talked to are self identified Democrats, and almost always add that they are also conservative. Most have heard the lies and rumors about Obama getting his vast wealth from Muslim countries (where else could he get that amount?) and all that other garbage that has infested our emails and airwaves too. And I'm sorry to say most believe it as fact.

            BUT...........to a person, everyone has been keen and willing to talk to me and listen to what i've said. There have been many many long and good conversations. Some have even taken to calling me up to get 'my' take on something they just heard.

            People here seldom have computers to look up stuff.(it is debateable if they would even if they had one tho) The only things they hear is primarily from the likes of Rush, Hannity, and O'Reily, so this is what they believe and repeat. Most are firmly against abortion and gays for religious reasons, and it is hard to get past that thinking.

            I haven't run into anyone that thinks anything of the state not being part of the ad wars or heavily courted by one side or the other.

            Mostly they want to hear why I think the wars are immoral and Bush is a liar and thief. Many have stated that they see my side of the argument and agree.

            What I want is for some legislation that will force media to tell only the truth and stop the propaganda coming right out of the White House, it is against the law even now, but it isn't enforced. If folks around here had better sources to learn from, they would be alot better off and no doubt Arkansas would become far more progressive.

            Don't forget that this state was heavily dominated by the DLC/top down/corporate friendly type of Democrats for a long long time. And Arkansas isn't one of the 'important' states that the Clintons favored. They just used us to get where they wanted to be.

            I thank my lucky stars Howard Dean has gotten this 50 state project off the ground.

            Arkansas will be turning progressive as soon as they hear the good news.

      •  Geebuz! (9+ / 0-)

        He doesn't have unlimited money and the mountain west looked like a better long shot.  Democrats have smashed themselves against the southern strategy for 40 years now, I'm glad Obama went west.

        Sarah Palin's voice now makes my TV automatically mute itself.

        by Jeffersonian on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 02:12:42 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  No. That would be bizarre. (0+ / 0-)

        I think Barack is focusing on states he is more likely to win and states with competitive Congressional races (Nevada, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Missouri).

        Sure, he might pick up Arkansas but if he's even more likely to get West Virginia, Montana, or North Dakota.  

        McCain is this year's Alan Keyes.

        by chicago jeff on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 02:19:01 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  And wouldn't arkansa tv markets... (4+ / 0-)
      Be the cheapest way to at least lightly chip off McCain support in SW MO?
      •  And Southeast Missouri Too Most Likely.... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        rogun

        I've never understood the snub here.

        •  if you perceive it as a "snub" (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Anthony Segredo, askew, MadEye, HowieBeale

          that a candidate with finite time and resources is not coming to every corner of the country, you are bound to be disappointed.

          For all the people claiming it has to do with him "punishing" Clinton voting states, have you considered that maybe race is more of an issue in Tennessee and Arkansas than it is in, say, Montana? That maybe it is not just some undying love for Clinton but that these are the toughest states for an African-American to win?

          •  The Campaign Is Advertising In Expensive Georgia. (0+ / 0-)

            His resources are not that "finite".  If it can afford to advertise in expensive and far more Republican in Georgia, it can afford the cheaper and more Democratic Arkansas.

          •  I don't perceive it as a snub from Obama (0+ / 0-)

            Not anymore so then usual, anyway. Mark27 has a good argument, but Obama is winning, and I understand the uphill battle he would face in Arkansas, so I trust that his campaign is making the right decisions.

            Having said that, it's pretty standard for Democratic Presidential candidates to spend less time in the sate then their Republican rivals, even though Arkansas is a Democratic state. I believe Arkansas is written off almost immediately by Democratic nominees, but like Mark27, I don't think it would take that much effort for them to actually win the state. Arkansas was considered a swing state in 2004, but Kerry only visited one time (one more then Obama, mind you), and basically just adorned a razorback hat for pictures, so it wasn't surprising that Bush ended up carrying Arkansas easily, because his campaign treated it like it was a swing state.

            It's lowly 6 electoral votes are certainly much of the reason Arkansas is ignored by Democrats, but I also think that outsiders wrongly consider Arkansas to be extremely conservative, when it's really not as much as they think (it's too poor to be extremely conservative collectively, although it does have a large extremely conservative faction.) When I read Carnacki's diaries on West Virginia, I feel as if he's actually writing about Arkansas, because most of what he says would uniquely apply to Arkansas just as well.

            Democrats -- Progress for the Working Class

            by rogun on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 08:03:22 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  The TV here is out of MO.............. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        rogun, HowieBeale

        .........We get the local stations out of Springfield MO, so have ads targeting their local elections and the Federal ads too.

        We are only 11 miles south of the Mo line and I have no idea how far futher south of us Sprinfields coverage goes. But if I was in Mo I'd be favoring Nixon and it has been nice to see the Obama ads, which I'm guessing that most Arkansans are not getting. Plus the chance to yell liar at my TV when McCain comes on. lol God he fell in a nasty hole when he became the nominee.

    •  ah yes, the old blame the candidate argument (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew, MadEye, KimD, sulthernao

      same thing going on in the Tennessee polling thread. If only the candidate had spent more time, he could win it, they say. But he spends time where it looks like he can win. There are a lot of red states where Obama is a lot closer than he is in Tennesseee and Arkansas. That is why he is in those states instead of Tennessee and Arkansas. He has too little time and too many states to visit to spend much time in ones he is not going to win.

      •  Blaming The Campaign Not the Candidate.... (0+ / 0-)

        The campaign has generally been well-run, but their resources are not finite.  They'll blowing wads of cash in Georgia which is far less likely to go Democrat than Arkansas would have been.  Any way you cut it, they fumbled on Arkansas when they had the money to put it in play.  In my opinion, the same is not true of the much redder Tennessee.

    •  OMG (6+ / 0-)

      Let's recap.  Obama has now:

      1. slapped Arkansas in the face.
      1. twisted the knife.
      1. told it to "Go to hell!"

      And somehow I don't think the histrionics are over yet.

      "Wolf, these post-debate instapolls just prove that America is in the tank for Obama."

      by skipppppp on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 02:33:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Any state where.. (6+ / 0-)

    ...McCain is leading in the 18-29 demographic is not a state Obama is going to win.

    John McCain=Culture war. Barack Obama=Culture peace.

    by wyvern on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 01:53:31 PM PDT

  •  :( (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lauramp, Kristi from Arkansas, KimD

    So sad that Arkansans can't do better than this.  But living in NW Arkansas, this doesn't surprise me...after all, we have BOOZMAN (puking sound goes here).  I've been watching for campaign signs...McCain/Palin outnumber Obama/Biden probably 5 to 1 in our small town.  

    If any republican can overcome the wretched stain of 8yrs of George Bush and win the White House we deserve whatever bad things will happen to us. Jack Cafferty

    by Ephemera on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 01:55:52 PM PDT

  •  Looks like Clinton and Beebe's efforts did jack. (0+ / 0-)

    Well done, guys.

  •  Canvassing today, ran into quite a few (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14

    independents leaning McCain because they are concerned about Obama raising taxes and enacting other liberal fiscal policies.

    I know, it's unbelievable.

  •  is the GOP now a Southern party? n/t (3+ / 0-)

    McCain / Palin - Unstable / Unable

    by KnotIookin on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 01:56:42 PM PDT

    •  It will be in a couple weeks (0+ / 0-)

      That's all they'll have left.

    •  Only if you count UT/ID as "Southern" (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      rogun, Mark27

      We're going to need a Solid Rockies and a Solid Farm Belt to go with our solid Northeast and Pacific, before we can call them truly isolated.

      REPUBLICANS: The Older White Meat.

      by AdmiralNaismith on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 02:03:37 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Kevin Phillips (0+ / 0-)

        discussed how displaced Oklahomans travelled to CA in the dust bowel and then up to Idaho and areas nearby thereafter. Thus, they are tightly connected to the south in their values.

        We're going to need a Solid Rockies and a Solid Farm Belt to go with our solid Northeast and Pacific, before we can call them truly isolated.

        The desert southwest states and Colorado are quite favorable due to a combination of migration from New England states and very large Hispanic populations. Other upper plains states (MT, ND, SD) are favorable due to more agreeable German and Scandinavian populations. States like Idaho may be among the toughest to gain ground in...

        UT is an interesting case. Many of the early Mormons were descended from New Englanders. However, I believe that they were often from oppressed groups with in New England Society. As this movement is so tightly based in values originating in New England culture I suspect UT might be tough...

    •  There's a chunk right in the middle (0+ / 0-)

      from Idaho, Wyoming to Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma

    •  Not exactly (0+ / 0-)

      Their best region is a weird 0 shaped district surrounding CO and NM ....

      Per Pollster, Obama is under 30 in only 2 states: UT and ID, and under 35 in just 2 more: WY and OK

      •  blacks... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        plf515

        The black population is helping a lot in the deep south. I suspect they will become a southern populist party with support from whites in the deep south, parts of the mountain west and parts of Appalachia. Appalachia is an interesting wild card right now. Despite what we saw in the primaries, Obama seems to be gaining ground there. WV looks possibly winnable and KY is down under 10 points. I think Appalachian needed time to feel comfortable with Obama but over time they will come round. Evangelicals in the deep south and the very conservative western states seem to be the only demographic Obama can't make headway with!

    •  Southern populist I think (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Anthony Segredo

      is the opening they'll slide into... Not too many people are interested in voting for fiscal libertarians about now... I suspect Mike Huckabee might be their nominee in 2012...

      If not the Republicans, than some other new party will fill that role and become the primary opposition...

      This parallels the Republicans in 1932 and thereafter, who were reduced to a northern moderate to liberal existence.

    •  It's a party for uneducated whites n/t (0+ / 0-)

      Conservatism = greed, hate, fear and ignorance

      by Joe B on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 05:40:45 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Has Obama made any effort to narrow (0+ / 0-)

    the gap?

    There is a lot of bashing right now of the states that the Obama campaign has told to go to hell.  They can't expect to win here if they don't show up.

    So I see only tatters of clearness through a pervading obscurity - Annie Dillard -6.88, -5.33

    by illinifan17 on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 01:57:22 PM PDT

    •  Obama has told AR to go to hell? Excuse me? (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew, MadEye, lauramp, Murdershewrote

      The fact that such a Democratic state in such a terrible economy is going double-digits for McCain is a sign that it's basically hopeless.  If the state could give Obama even the slightest reason to go after it (like North Dakota and West Virginia did), he probably would.

      There are simply not enough black voters there to make up for the white Dems who will not vote for a black candidate.  Similar to Tennessee, but Arkansas will be closer because it's a more Democratic state overall.

    •  Has AR made any effort to bring Obama? (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew, MadEye, lauramp, ArkDem14, KimD

      He can't be in all 50 states at once. They can't expect him to show up if they project inevitable loss from day one.

      Obama's expanded the map like no other recent Democrat. Look at the Dakotas. Look at North Carolina. Look at Georgia and Indiana. Anywhere they've given him even a slim chance, he's gone there and invited them into the new America. You can't accuse him of telling people to go to Hell. Seems to me, it's been the other way around.

      REPUBLICANS: The Older White Meat.

      by AdmiralNaismith on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 02:09:17 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That's Not the Way It Works..... (5+ / 0-)

        If a candidate is behind in a given locale, it's their own responsibility to win over votes, not the public's responsibility to go to them.  In my opinion, Arkansas is a wasted opportunity.  If Obama can come this damn close to winning Georgia, he could have won Arkansas with any effort at all.

        •  Thank you. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14

          So I see only tatters of clearness through a pervading obscurity - Annie Dillard -6.88, -5.33

          by illinifan17 on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 02:25:30 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Absolutely (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          rogun, tresgatos

          The Dem party here has been begging, literally, for someone to campaign here. The Obama campaign finally opened a field office in Little Rock in mid-September, but I had to get my own literature, etc. online. I still haven't heard any Obama ads except for the national ones on Dish.

          Given even the slightest amount of effort, Obama could have had Arkansas' 6 EV, but the state was written off. Every elected official is a Dem, as is most of the statehouse and all but one federal official. There is a large African-American population here, but several friends have mentioned to me that Obama didn't seem interested in their vote.

          Social issues are big, but the economy is a much bigger issue here. Wasted opportunity indeed.

          "There may be times when we are powerless to prevent injustice, but there must never be a time when we fail to protest." -- Elie Wiesel

          by carolita on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 06:10:51 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  I think you have it backwards. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14, Ephemera

        Apparently you think politics works like this:

        Candidate:  Promise you will vote for me then I will come to you and ask for your vote.

        Voter:  OK, I promise.

        What?  If the Obama campaign wants to win states like Arkansas and Tennessee , they have to work for it.  

        So I see only tatters of clearness through a pervading obscurity - Annie Dillard -6.88, -5.33

        by illinifan17 on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 02:20:33 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Make it happen (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew, MadEye, socks, lauramp, KimD

      We're working on the Eastern Shore of MD, and Obama sure as hell ain't coming here anytime soon. Sure, he's got some ads on local TV, but it's the volunteers that make a campaign go. Not yard signs and TV ads, although TV ads help.

      Our local Dem club had to get Obama yard signs printed out of their own $$$ because Team Obama wouldn't send them to a state they were up by 20. And they were right to do so. Put the money were it will pay off eventually.

      Go to your local Dem office and volunteer. Make phone calls - barackobama.com makes it easy to do right from your own computer and home phone. Be the change you want to see.

      Now, if you've already volunteered and phonebanked, feel free to tell me to take a long walk off a short pier.

      Duck Around - a blog about MD, the Shore, and getting off my lawn.

      by duck on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 02:15:37 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  We have been working very hard here in (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14

        Tennessee.  And we will deliver a much better result than this poll predicts.  That's why it hurts to have the campaign completely ignore our efforts.  This will not slow us down, because we are working for the future of our country.  But I am convinced that one lousy day in Tennessee would have given us a 5-10 point swing.  And I really don't believe that after 84 campaign events in Florida the 85th does all that much good.

        So I see only tatters of clearness through a pervading obscurity - Annie Dillard -6.88, -5.33

        by illinifan17 on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 02:24:55 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  We have been working really (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14

          hard in Arkansas, too.  Like I said above, it is very hard to win over people who only care about social issues.  I was asking people to come to the Clinton rally yesterday, but I had two people tell me they couldn't vote for someone who wants abortion and gay marriage.  I have had so many people tell me that he is a Muslim and that they couldn't imagine having a President Obama.  It is really frustrating here.

          "If one is lucky, a solitary fantasy can totally transform a million realities." -- Maya Angelou

          by Kristi from Arkansas on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 02:33:46 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Man, what would 2 or 3 Clinton/Obama... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14
    ralies here do?
    •  Uncertain... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      The Angevin, ArkDem14

      Reason being when rallies have been held they are held in areas which will almost certainly go for Dems. Hillary was in Little Rock about two or so weeks ago but its the rural areas that make the difference. Arkansas has 2/2 Senators, 3/4 Congresspersons, a Governor, AG all as Dems. The answer to this lies somewhere deeper when it turns out from the same poll that Hillary would win the election and that the Democratic candidate (when not specified) would also win.

    •  Still lose the state (6+ / 0-)

      Hopefully by 2012 people will realize that Obama wasn't the second coming of OBL and Marx combined.

      That's why it's important for Democrats to deliver next year.

  •  10 points down..... we got AR right where we want (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14, ebleyes

    it......... soon we will eat spinage and become a monster of unimaginable electoral power.

    you just wait...... PLEASE DON'T RIGTH US OFF....

  •  Thank God for Mississippi (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14

    "I'm John McCain, and I approve this charade."

    by semiot on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 01:58:29 PM PDT

  •  Will the states (0+ / 0-)

    that go McCain be part of the "real America" or the new old "fake America" of racists, wingnuts and people hunting for Bolsheviks in their bathrooms?

  •  ot - 1000 for mccain in NM. 40K for Obama tnght (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, jj32, KimD, Canuckoo

    40,000 expected tonight in Alburque NM for Obama...

    Mccain pulls in less that 1000.

    Ouch.

    http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/...

    The pair also said they were surprised that the turnout for today's event, attended by less than a thousand people, was so small.  

    Real Obama: One Wife, One Car, One House, Two Kids.

    by mysticlaker on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 01:59:56 PM PDT

    •  God, McCain is an idiot... (0+ / 0-)

      ...he's still campaigning in Iowa and New Mexico?  What an utter moran.  Is he going to Oregon and Minnesota tomorrow??

      "Partnership and cooperation among nations is not a choice; it is the one way, the only way, to protect our common security and advance our common humanity."

      by SLKRR on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 04:23:36 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  So two D's - Lincoln and Pryor (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pkohan, ThePrometheusMan

    mean nothing for Obama?

    Fine - I'll stick with two D's for now.

  •  Even the Clintons aren't trying here (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Ephemera, ThePrometheusMan

    They don't have to, of course, and we still owe them a big debt for putting the good of the party over personal matters. I'd love to see Bill rewarded with a plum Ambassadorship or UN post, and Hillary considered for a cabinet slot or Supreme Court vacancy.

    But they decided their talents were better served in attempting to deliver West Virginia to Obama and to Ann Barth, and Kentucky to Lunsford. Arkansas, apparently, wasn't worth the effort.

    It's a shame, since Obama v. Palin is the only major contested race in Arkansas. Everyone else is unopposed. I hope any Razorback activists don't mind trekking to neighboring states, because that's the only opportunity of making a difference in person.

    REPUBLICANS: The Older White Meat.

    by AdmiralNaismith on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 02:00:27 PM PDT

  •  Look on the bright side (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SLKRR, DH from MD, jj32, lauramp, tresgatos

    McCain's lead over Obama in AR is smaller than Obama's lead over McCain in MI, MN, WI, and PA.

  •  Can't win em all nt (0+ / 0-)

    May you be touched by His noodly appendage. Church of the Flying Spaghetti Monster

    by Herse182 on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 02:02:00 PM PDT

  •  Clintons (0+ / 0-)

    Are the Clintons a positive ?  I wish they campaigned there often--even if they were not going to change the result.  Dems need visibility in the South.

  •  AR is not an interesting place to make gains (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lauramp

    in the short term. I would much rather see investment in the suburbs of Texas.

    50 state strategy and all, sure, but within that there are better places to worry about.

    •  Not Sure About That..... (3+ / 0-)

      The six electoral votes of Arkansas strike me as much easier to grasp to than the 34 of Texas simply by making a few inroads in Texas suburbs.  Texas is a long-term project.  Arkansas is already nominally on our side.

      •  I don't know (0+ / 0-)

        I think we have better trends in TX than AR. Sure, AR is in a sense cheaper, but I can't see Obama winning AR in 2012 unless he is winning everywhere. I'm not 100% sure the same can be said of TX, if there is a great deal of investment there now. Sure, it won't be pivotal in 2012, but the road to the destruction of the Republican party lies in the Texas suburbs.

        •  huh?? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          carolita

          Republicans have made no gains in the state in the past 12 years, in fact they have continued to lose ground while gaining it everywhere else. If Obama even does around 56% in 2012 he'd win Arkansas. Arkansas is much more Democratic than Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, Texas and Tennessee. Obama just hasn't really campaigned there at all, so what do you expect, no ads, rallies. A few would help, possibly bring him where he needs to be, in the 45-46 percent range.

          Seize Every day, giving no thought for tommorrow-Horace

          by ArkDem14 on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 04:37:10 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  But why would AR be more democratic (0+ / 0-)

            now and in the future than it has been in the past? I think that case can be made for TX, but I don't see any such case for AR. Maybe I am wrong, and there is something about its demographics that make it a good place for Dem expansions. But I don't see what. Clinton winning it is not a long-term demographic trend.

  •  41% support can turn to 51% support,,, (0+ / 0-)

    ...with a few years investment and some luck.

    Dear Mr. President, There are too many states nowadays. Please eliminate three.
    P.S. I am not a crackpot.
    -Abe Simpson

    by fromer on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 02:03:50 PM PDT

  •  Meh. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Wolf Of Aquarius

    Breaking: Obama losing states he gave up a long time ago.

    -2.12, -4.97 "Die Lüge wird zur Weltordnung gemacht." -Kafka

    by GermanAmericanDem on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 02:04:57 PM PDT

    •  Except in places (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew, Joffan, Ephemera, GermanAmericanDem

      like WV, ND, and SD. Who knows, maybe even AZ!

      Some states haven't given up on Obama yet. I was hoping this was one of them.

      •  Well, I didn't want to (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Murdershewrote

        come across as condescending, it's just that Arkansas, Louisiana, Alabama, Kentucky, Tennessee are unwinnable states in this environment (a rabid wingnut base energized by Palin concentrated in the Deep South). And that's not even a bad thing: We're about to degrade the Republican Party to a regional force for years to come.
        Just like the Democrats in the 1920s, basically.

        -2.12, -4.97 "Die Lüge wird zur Weltordnung gemacht." -Kafka

        by GermanAmericanDem on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 02:46:16 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  except Arkansas (17+ / 0-)

          has had a reverse political trend than most of the south. Since 1996 Republicans have lost a U.S. House Seat, A U.S. Senate Seat, the Governorship, the Lieutenant Governorship, a seat in the State Senate, and seven seats in the State House. Party registration advantage is huge, a majority of voters self-identify as Democrats, and Republicans main strength comes from Northwest Arkansas. In 2004 Bush got 51% in the state's other three districts, and fixed that by getting 62% in Northwest Arkansas which votes more like Southwestern missouri and Kansas than Arkansas. But in any case a Democratic candidate has to connect to rural voters to win, and Obama has not done that here. Give him a few more years.

          Not to mention that unlike many other Southern states Arkansas has a huge bench of young, charismatic Democrats, Dustin McDaniel the nations youngest Attorney General, popular four term and former State Senator U.S. Rep. Mike Ross who's only 47 and already has a political career going back 18 years to the state legislature. There's Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter, only 48, and numerous others, including several young House candidates who won shocking upsets last time around.

          Seize Every day, giving no thought for tommorrow-Horace

          by ArkDem14 on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 04:43:40 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Me too, when the last poll was mid-Sep (0+ / 0-)

        but now we've had two polls that don't show a lot of procgress... sigh... this was one I colored blue when sketching the 400+ EVs for Obama.

        This is not a sig-line.

        by Joffan on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 03:45:18 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Tennessee Ernie and His Ford? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14, Murdershewrote

    ...right now, it's more "Memphis than Nashville" (the natives know that means much less refined), which makes for doofus political opinions, too. And also...such as (Thank you, Sarah...be a dear, and go try another Armani on...)

    But with stats like the following—on education alone—I agree with kos, a long time change must come:

    • The state’s high-school graduation rate is 57%. Tennessee ranks 48th in the nation on this measure.
    • 31% of high-school graduates are academically ready for college. Tennessee ranks 38th in the nation on this measure.
    • 36% of middle- and high-school classes in core academic subjects are taught by instructors who lack at least a college minor in their subject. Tennessee ranks 49th in the nation on this measure.
    • 41% of middle- and high-school classes in core academic subjects in high-poverty schools are led by teachers without at least a college minor in their subject. Tennessee ranks 27th of the 37 states with data available on this measure.

    Gotta love that Republican dedication to education!

    •  only one problem (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      skeezixwolfnagle, Murdershewrote

      Democrats have held the Gubernatorialship for 16 of the past 24 years and have done nothing for education.

      Seize Every day, giving no thought for tommorrow-Horace

      by ArkDem14 on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 04:44:35 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I Know... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14

        ...because they're not really Democrats, but "Dixiecrats."

        I do hope that after the collapse of the GOP on 11.04, there will be no more capitulation and "reaching across the aisle with these mooks. It's time for the adults to craft policy, and if the wingnuts want to come along, they do so under our rules.

        If not, they can stay in political purgatory with their fellow travelers in the Klan.

  •  Looks to me like Obama will do better (0+ / 0-)

    than Kerry, although it certainly doesn't look like he will win.

  •  I don't understand (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KimD

    why they won't go along with "Hillary sent me!"? AR Dems love the Clintons, but they don't believe them that Obama is okay to vote for? I hate bringing this up again and again, but it's so illogical!

    •  I don't understand (0+ / 0-)

      how Clinton won, if they are so afraid of liberal polciies. Granted Clinton was pretty middle-of-the-road, but Obama isn't running that far to the left of where he did.

      •  The Clintons (0+ / 0-)

        were well known and well liked (by most).  There were some who didn't like them, but overall people could see that these "liberals" weren't going to take away their guns or turn them gay.  I know that sounds crazy, but people in AR are slow to warm up to strangers.  Personally, I'd love to see Gen. Clark and Obama do some rallies here.  I think the Powell endorsement might soften up some of the "strong defense" people.  General Clark being from here could help ease people's minds as well, not just about "is he strong on defense" but also being a "friend of a friend".

        Watch this space. Something brilliant will come to me soon, I'm sure.

        by tresgatos on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 10:28:07 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  No one asked them to (0+ / 0-)

      No field offices, no ads, no campaigning, no rallies, nothing at all in Arkansas. Finally opened one field office in mid-September, but I have never found it open.

      "There may be times when we are powerless to prevent injustice, but there must never be a time when we fail to protest." -- Elie Wiesel

      by carolita on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 06:16:49 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  In 2004, 13% of the voters were Black (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tresgatos

    This poll has 14%.  But I think the increase in the Black vote will be larger; in 2004, only 49% of eligible Blacks voted.  I haven't seen registration numbers for Black in AR, but in 2004, a lot of Blacks who were registered failed to vote.

  •  Can't win em all... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14

    unless you're Reagan

  •  Wondering if we could be seeing some (0+ / 0-)

    hurt Clinton loyalists, here, especially among AA undecideds.  Possible.  

    When employees and stock-holders aren't different people, I'll find something else to do.

    by oxon on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 02:11:37 PM PDT

  •  Women 49% for O + 6% undecided (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14

    major gender gap difference between men and women regarding Obama.

    24% of Dems for McCain!

    Big Dog and HRC could swing through and make a difference.

  •  is there a (0+ / 0-)
    Saturday R2000 poll dump going on?

    No Way, No How, No McCain

    by nerdngeek on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 02:13:04 PM PDT

  •  is this so called high undecided African American (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Ephemera, Murdershewrote

    vote another on of the unknowns like youth voters cell phones not being polled.  Could it be as simple as many African Americans, not trusting the system, just flatly refuse to tell pollsters how they feel or who they will vote for.  A reverse Bradley effect. Is that being taken into connsideration in the imponderable that go into polling.

    You just don't change cultural norms overnight when for centuries saying the wrong thing could get you killed.

  •  O, Ye of little faith... (8+ / 0-)

    I seem to be a voice 'crying in the wilderness' here.  As a lifelong Arkansan working in the Repub stronghold of Benton Co., AR, I see Obama signs in yards all over the place.  I even had to give up my yard sign in favor of my neighbor with a more visible location on the highway.  Newly registered voters have signed up in large numbers, yard signs, buttons and T-shirts have run out and we've ordered more.  We have registered Repubs coming in and getting signs, volunteering to work the phones.  Our registration efforts have netted 7,000 new voters in 8 weeks.

    If McCain wins Arkansas, it will not be by a large margin.  The white evangelical churches are 'dancing around the fire', spewing lies and hatred.  But not all white Arkies are evangelicals.  I have had not one single negative comment on my Obama bumper sticker, or even the 'Rednecks for Obama' bumper sticker.  I wear my Obama button everywhere, 'trolling for Republicans' and I get not one nibble.  A lot of smiles and a lot of 'love your button' comments from Wal-Mart Checkers.  

    My point is:  If I can't draw an 'ass-chewing' in Benton Co, AR, then what is taking place on the ground elsewhere in Arkansas?  

    On Nov 4th, I plan to be at the County watch party, you'll know me by my chewed fingernails.  But, I sincerely believe that my fellow Arkansans are not so stupid as some would think.

    Don't piss down my back and tell me it's raining!

    by Arkieboy on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 02:20:00 PM PDT

    •  Long tradition (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Kristi from Arkansas

      I'm from the Hot Springs area. There's a lot of folks who voted for the right Dem before (Bill). Once they're in that booth, a bunch of them might change their minds.

    •  Be the change you want... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      CenLamar, tresgatos

      Thanks Arkieboy and all the other Razorcrats working to get Obama elected here in Arkansas. Our phone banks have been mostly pointed at Missouri. We've been organizing weekend and day trips to Missouri. A few weekends ago, over 600 people traveled from Arkansas, Oklahoma and Texas to canvass in Missouri.

      Just this morning, I had 8 friends pile in two cars and drive up to KC to canvass. We are doing all we can but resources are extremely limited. Yard signs don't vote but they do attract people to my booth on the Fayetteville Square and I registered a lot of new voters, signed up dozens of new volunteers and I've directed at least a hundred people to join the 130,000 that have voted early in Arkansas so far.

      Kim and Magan and Bianca are coordinating all kinds of phone banks in the Fayetteville Field Office and planning events.

      It really is inspiring each Saturday morning to walk into that office and see if filled with people of all ages, colors and economic back grounds calling and calling and calling.

      I've had some of my staunchest republican friends come up to me and whisper that they will be voting for Obama this year.

      Arkansas may not tip but I think we might be closer than projected come November 4th. Maybe 2012 we will be a battleground.

      November 2nd from 6p to 9p we are meeting at US Pizza on Dickson Street for one last big phone bank party.

      November 4th, the Washington County Democrats will meet at the Town Center to watch the election results.

      There is Hope for Arkansas!

      •  We been humpin' it...Bro (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        tresgatos

        Greetings!  From the other comments, I gather that Benton and Washington Co are the best kept secrets of the Obama Campaign.  The unfortunate thing is... most non Arkies view us as snuff-dippin', ball-cap wearin' ignoramuses.  News Flash... those folks don't even vote.  

        Obama gave up on Arkansas in the Primary... and frankly, his money was better spent elsewhere in these battleground states that he had to pull into his camp.  Most of them are there now and all we have to do is keep them there all the way to the election.  

        Arkansas' 6 electoral votes don't really count for squat compared to FL, PA, MO and OH.  I think it would be a great moral victory for Obama to carry Ark.  

        It can be done... East Arkansas is a shoe-in for Obama.  High A/A population, the same goes for most of the counties in South Ark.  North Central Ark will be a hard sell, because of the high concentration of McCain people.  However, Washington County is a key.  You U of A kids are doing a super job down there.  In Benton Co, us old white people are busting our hump, too.  Crawford Co, and Sebastian Co are going to be tight.  If Washington Co and Benton Co turn out big... Arkansas  could possibly go Obama on Nov 4.  Pulaski Co will go for Obama.  The rest of the state does not have enough population to matter.  However, some of the Southern Counties have 30% +/- A/A populations.  

        Then, there is the F*** It! factor.  Borderline McCain supporters either stay home or switch their vote in the booth.  The BIAS effect, I voted for him But I Ain't Sayin'

        Don't piss down my back and tell me it's raining!

        by Arkieboy on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 05:43:59 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Not just the college kids down here... (0+ / 0-)

          I agree with your assessment of the state. Fort Smith (my home town) is a lost cause. I'm convinced it is something in the water.

          Fayetteville is a shoe-in. Rest of Washington County is a toss-up. But I'm getting a lot of good feedback... and I'm talking to everyone I can.

          The college kids are rocking. They were registering new voters all summer long, canvass all the time and have parties like, well, like college kids do.

          But the best part to me is the older volunteers. I'm 40 but I'm one of the young ones. There are some many older volunteers. Heck, there are so many volunteers. I think we might surprise 'em on election night. Seeing all those people working together is inspiring - hopeful. Haven't felt that in 8 years.

          And there is no, none, zip organized Republican presence down here. I actually had a woman ask me if I knew where to get her a McCain sign. I gave her an Obama Biden sticker instead.

          •  Late reply... (0+ / 0-)

            Yes we can!  Now, let's surprise the hell out of all of these guys!  Then, on to 2010 and the Congressional race.  Look really closely at the 'Protest Vote' on Nov 4th against Boozman.  That will be the key.  If enough vote for the Green Party candidate, then either Boozman will get beat or it will inspire a viable opponent in 2010.  

            Don't piss down my back and tell me it's raining!

            by Arkieboy on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 09:03:36 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Pennsylvania logic (0+ / 0-)

    Obama is down by 11 in this poll and it is smart that he hasn't wasted money in this state.  However, the strange thing is that the gap is about the same in Pennsylvania and McCain has put all his chips into that state.  Strange situation for McCain, competing in a state that seems as out of reach for him as Arkansas is for Obama.  

  •  If you're black trying to vote south.. (0+ / 0-)

    of Garland county... good luck to you as the Klan still exists down there.

    I was not lying. I said things that later on seemed to be untrue. Richard Nixon, discussing Watergate

    by roydoe on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 02:56:35 PM PDT

    •  I wouldn't say that. (0+ / 0-)

       Early voting began and our paper carried a big picture of a black man at the touch screen on the front page.  I haven't heard of any incidents, have you?  

      Watch this space. Something brilliant will come to me soon, I'm sure.

      by tresgatos on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 10:40:19 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Let's see what Big Dog can do. (0+ / 0-)

    Former President Bill Clinton will join Gov. Mike Beebe, state Democratic Party Chairman David Pryor and former U.S. Sen. Dale Bumpers in a series of rallies for Barack Obama this week, the Democratic Party of Arkansas announced Wednesday.

    The get-out-the-vote rallies will be held in North Little Rock on Friday and in Pine Bluff and Jonesboro on Saturday. The times and exact locations of the events have not been determined.

    [...]

    Former Arkansas first lady Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., headlined a rally for Obama in Little Rock on Oct. 10.

    http://www.mydd.com/...

  •  As an AR native progressive (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    rogun

    Let's consider a few points

    All AR congressman and senators are Dems (save one R-Boozeman). None of whom faced a primary challenger, none of whom supported Obama at all until today. Senator Mark Pryor doesn't even have an Obama yard sign.

    Not one D incumbent has strong opposition (if any opposition at all) this year.

    I say this as a white male. They are all racist or mortified of their racist constituents to an extreme fault. Only fear/racism explains why they all avoided supporting Obama this summer and fall.. And racism is significant here, but could have been overcome had the AR leaders actually tried. If Hillary got the mid 60's in the primary this spring, there is no excuse for AR Dems not delivering at least 51 for Obama this fall.

    Considering Mike Ross, Blue Dog extraordinaire, will be a huge thorn in the side of Change, progressives, pro pay-go, etc. etc. We need to primary him starting no later than Jan 09 in order to keep him remotely in line.

    Considering Mark "Lieberlovin'" Pryor, member gang of fourteen, anti choice, pro war, anti Habeas Corpus, All wrong on FISA, Patriot Act, federalist nominations and net neutrality, he will be another severe thorn in our side and there is little we can do about it for the next six years. We Dems failed ourselves here, big time. After all he has a hefty war chest now and seems to be financing the likes (at least 150k) of his Homeland Security Committee, fellow gang of fourteen buddy, Mary Landrieu of LA, reelection bid.

    These people (Pryor and Ross, most egregiously, Berry and Lincoln close behind) are not "conservative" they are radical extremists. WIth some small exceptions for congressman Vic Snyder, who still supports the wars and military in all the wrong ways, imo. He is good on a lot of social issues if you want to set aside his continuous support of our killing millions of innocents around the world for trillions of wasted dollars and liberties be damned.

    The South needs a lot of outside help.. I hope Dems will address this... this time around.

    I sincerely believe AR citizens, like most Americans, are progressives at heart.. We just need to help them understand what the heck that means.

    Unionizing Wal Mart and a few others would be a great start!

    •  You are viewing Arkansas (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tresgatos

      from a very unique position. I love Eureka Springs, but it is nothing like the rest of the state, particularly the Delta and the southern half. Northwest/northcentral Arkansas is the most racist part of the state by far.

      I agree with you entirely about Pryor and Ross, but I know Marion Berry well and he is certainly not a racist. He served in the Clinton administration and is the most progressive of the Arkansas representatives.

      Gov. Beebe has been campaigning for Obama, as has Berry since he returned from Washington.

      "There may be times when we are powerless to prevent injustice, but there must never be a time when we fail to protest." -- Elie Wiesel

      by carolita on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 06:25:54 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Obama never tried for AR (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    carolita

    He never visited once or even built any offices. I think that, if he had visited the state at least once or twice and sent staff there, the numbers would be closer.

  •  this is where Bill & Hillary could've really (0+ / 0-)

    helped!

    "When fascism comes to America, it will be draped in the flag and carrying the cross."- Sinclair Lewis

    by IamtheReason on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 07:12:10 PM PDT

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