The first election I seriously worked in my home state of Montana (2002), we were amazed that Democrats picked up seats in the state legislature. The Democratic Party had been in shambles just a decade before, outnumbered more than 2-1 in the legislature and holding only one significant statewide office (U.S. Senator Max Baucus).
Fast forward just six years and the RNC is spending money trying to save our state's measly three electoral votes. All I can do is say, "Ha ha!" -- especially because this may be too little too late.
The Republican National Committee has purchased ads in the Presidential race here in Montana, a sure sign that some folks in DC are sweating the state's three electoral votes.
The GOP is in trouble for reasons beyond poll numbers. Find out more below the fold.
The polling in Montana certainly has not looked great for McCain of late in Montana. The latest poll, from Montana State University-Billings, shows Obama leading McCain.
The MSU-B poll has a bit of a reputation for being an imperfect yardstick, but it is still bad news for McCain. Montana, after all, went for Bush by 25 points in 2000 and 20 points in 2004. Even coming close to losing Montana is embarrassing.
But a perfect storm appears to be lining up to help Obama. Some of this is the result of his own work, some the result of some foolish Republicans doing foolish things, and much of it is to the credit of my fellow Montanans who have worked hard and voted smarter in recent years:
- The Executive Director of the Montana GOP Just Resigned Earlier this Month. It's a tough thing to bring on a brand new quarterback in the fourth quarter of the Super Bowl. But the Montana Republican Party did that after their executive director resigned shortly after getting in all sorts of trouble for pushing some improper voter challenges in what appears to be a botched voter suppression attempt. The new guy at the helm is no dummy (and he may very well be smarter than the man he replaces), but it is still tough to get up to speed and steer a team in a new direction after a blow like this.
- Max Baucus, Brian Schweitzer, and Jon Tester. When it comes to fundraising and star power, no other Democratic trifecta in the country can match these three amigos. They move political budgets and they move votes and all three are working for Obama to take Big Sky Country right now.
- Denny Rehberg. Who? Although a relatively formidable power in Montana politics, Rehberg is now the last Republican standing in a significant office (he is our state's lone U.S. Representative). From such a position, he is expected to go toe-to-toe with Baucus, Schweitzer, and Tester? Gimme a break. He ain't superman.
- Ron Paul. This is the Congressman who could have the biggest impact on the race. Ron Paul appears on the ballot after the local Constitution Party chose to nominate him (possibly a very savvy move to hold their ballot status). Ron Paul ran strong in Montana earlier this year -- and he could easily drain thousands of votes from John McCain.
- Early Vote, Absentee Balloting, and Election Day Registration. Montana has among the nation's most liberal voting laws. With tools like early voting, absentee balloting, and Election Day Registration, Montana is a field organizer's paradise (or close to), which is why this last one could make the difference.
- An Unparalleled Ground Game. I've seen big field campaigns in Montana, but I've never seen anything close to the Obama presence. The Tester operation in '06 was huge, but it pales in comparison with what Barack has built here. And where Conrad Burns built a rival operation that could compete with Obama, there's no indication McCain or the Republicans have anything close.
One of the state's best field minds told me he's convinced that Obama is on pace to win. It may not be time to bet the farm on Obama winning Montana yet, but there are good reasons the Republicans are scared.