(In the final days of an election, there is so much information from so many races, it's difficult to stay on top of every story and understand the subtle dynamics often at play on the ground. Thankfully, we have an expansive 50-state blogosphere to match our 50-state strategy. Over the last two weeks of the campaign, we've asked leaders of the state blogospheres to provide insight into late developments and share the stories of their states in a series we're calling "Listening to the Locals." SusanG)
For a state that hasn't elected a Republican to statewide office since 1997, New Jersey has a remarkably red congressional delegation. In each election since 1998, the Garden State has sent elected seven Democrats and six Republicans to the House of Representatives.
Now, ten years after Rush Holt upset Mike Pappas in NJ-12, Democrats are once again on the offensive in New Jersey. For most of the cycle, the open seat races in NJ-03 and NJ-07 attracted the most attention. Indeed, John Adler and '06 Blue Majority alum Linda Stender have run fine campaigns and are worthy of your support. But in the past few weeks, a third New Jersey House race-the 5th district contest between progressive Democratic challenger Dennis Shulman and far-right Republican incumbent Scott Garrett-has quickly become one of the most competitive in the country.
With a PVI of R+4.4, NJ-05 is undoubtedly a Republican-leaning district. For 22 years, it elected moderate Republican Marge Roukema by overwelming margins, but as Shulman likes to say, "Scott Garrett is no Marge Roukema." Garrett's lifetime ACU rating of 100 separates him from the state's other five Republican Congressmen, who have lifetime ratings ranging from 61.38 (Chris Smith) to 70.23 (Jim Saxton). His voting record places far to the right of even mainstream Republicans. Garrett was one of 39 members of the House to vote against a ban on cockfighting. He was one of 34 members to vote against the COPS Improvement Act, which will help put 50,000 police officers on the street in the next six years. And he was one of just 13 members to vote against fellow NJ Republican Chris Smith's bill to provide funds for the Museum of the History of Polish Jews.
Yet despite Garrett's extremism, previous challengers have had little success against him. In 2002, well-funded former Republican Anne Summers lost by more than 20 points. In 2004 and 2006, Dorothea Anne Wolfe and Paul Aronsohn struggled to raise money and lost by 17 and 11 points respectively. In the state's second-most Republican district, it will take a near perfect Democratic campaign to win, even against someone as reactionary as Scott Garrett.
Shulman's campaign is the best-run in the state and probably one of the best in the country. During the summer, the Shulman campaign attracted the attention of the national press, as the New Yorker, Time Magazine and the Washington Post all ran profiles of the candidate. At the same time, the campaign aggressively reached out to the netroots, and in September, Shulman landed one of the last spots on the Orange to Blue list. They have attacked Garrett's ethics with punishing ads hitting him for taking money from the industry he oversees on the House Financial Services Committee and for claiming $41,000 in property tax breaks meant for farmers because his brother sells $700 in shrubs. On the fundraising front, Shulman has raised over $1 million so far, and is approaching spending parity with the incumbent.
The Shulman campaign's efforts are starting to pay off. Last week's R2K poll had Shulman closing the gap on Garrett from 15 to 7. As bad as the topline numbes are for Garrett, the internals look even worse. R2K has McCain leading by 12 in NJ-05, just two points off of George W. Bush's 2004 margin; this seems to conflict with the last four statewide polls have Obama opening Kerry's margin of victory from 6.5 to at least 15 points. Right now, Shulman probably trails by 2 or 3 rather than 7. That's why the DCCC has moved Shulman to the Red to Blue list, the NRCC has him on its "death list," and the Club for Growth is rushing to Garrett's aid. That's why Garrett is resorting slimy mailers which the Record editorial page editor Al Doblin called "something nastier than mud." While he's more than happy to send out smear mailers, he won't take questions from local reporters:
Earlier this morning, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg endorsed Dennis Shulman. The Bloomberg endorsement is a big deal. Half of New Jerseyans have a favorable opinion of the mayor, while just 20% view him unfavorable. Bloomberg's endorsement will help Shulman especially among independents, more than one in five of whom still have "no opinion" of the Democrat.
Right now, this race is up for grabs. If we rally behind Dennis in his race against the Michelle Bachmann of the East, we will win. If you live in North Jersey or New York City, come to the district to volunteer. Please visit our ActBlue page and give to all of our candidates, but especially to Dennis Shulman.
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