Lots of reaction to Obama's ad this morning, with most agreeing it was very effective, especially as it was followed by the first joint appearance between Obama and Bill Clinton.
Also, lots of polling out with I'm sure much more to follow later this morning. Plus news that Obama may be considering a late push into Arizona!
And, Larry Sabato offers his Election day predictions.
Richard Wolffe at Newsweek reports that the Obama campaign may be eyeing a late move into Arizona:
The campaign is now seriously examining a late surge into the state. That may include ramping up TV advertising, on-the-ground staff or even deploying the candidate to stop there. Obama is scheduled to make a Western swing late this week, making an Arizona visit possible.
According to Pollster.com’s averages, Arizona is a 6 point race in McCain’s favor, compared to Pennsylvania--McCain’s best hope of picking up a blue state--which is an 11-point race in Obama’s favor. That means Obama has more reason to travel to Arizona than McCain does to Pennsylvania, no matter how far-fetched it once seemed to try to win McCain’s home state.
Do it! Do it! This would make me a very happy Kossack indeed. The Pollster average for Arizona is far more favorable for Obama than it is for McCain in Pennsylvania. McCain is obviously worried about his home state, or else he wouldn't have launched robocalls.
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Reaction to Obama's commercial from ABC News:
ABC News' Chief Washington correspondent George Stephanopoulos said the infomercial, which cost more than $3 million, was worth "just about every penny."
Stephanopoulos also mentioned that Obama used language and stories that the campaign had previously found to be very effective with undecided voters.
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Tom Shales in the Washington Post:
It was the easiest thing in the world, watching the skillfully edited hodgepodge put together by his campaign, to picture Obama as president. That's one thing the film was designed to do, especially for the doubters and those scared, "undecided" voters out there.
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John Nichols at The Nation:
This was a commercial, to be sure.
But it was, as well, a statement. And Barack Obama's determination to make it the closing message of this long campaign will go a long way toward reassuring uncertain voters about the president he intends to be.
And, the Dallas Morning News also found it effective:
Bottom line, though: Mr. Obama flawlessly used his 30 minutes. If he wins over only a handful of voters, it was millions of dollars well spent.
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Larry Sabato at the UVA Center for Politics released his predictions for the election this morning:
Sabato will update his predictions on Monday, but he is also forecasting that Democrats pick up 7-8 seats in the Senate and 26-35 in the House.
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A new Indianapolis Star/WTHR poll out this morning shows Obama leading McCain in Indiana by one point - 46% to 45%:
McCain's uptick could well be tied to Governor Sarah Palin's three appearances in the state - especially when you consider that the McCain camp now touts a 6% edge with women 49 to 43%, while Senator Obama can point to a 7% edge with men 48 to 41%. The numbers of women supporting McCain and men supporting Obama are a flip flop from our last poll.
I think there is something fishy with this poll, so I'll be interested to see if any of our poll gurus have any comments. The poll claims that Obama's African-American support in Indiana has dropped from 94% to 82% - a drop of 12 points from their September poll. I find that VERY hard to believe.
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This morning's Reuters/Zogby tracker has Obama +7, up from +5 on Wednesday:
"This is not good news for McCain. The race was tightening for a few days but now it is going back the other way," pollster John Zogby said.
Support for Obama, a first-term senator from Illinois, hit or exceeded the 50 percent mark for the seventh time in the last 10 days. McCain's support has not reached 46 percent in more than three weeks of polling.
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So if you had to predict one state where McCain would be campaigning in the next few days, it probably wouldn't be Maine. Maine GOP officials won't say when, but have confirmed that McCain will visit Maine before Election day.
“What a waste,” Bowdoin College political scientist Christian Potholm said late Wednesday. “I have no idea why [the campaign] would do this. I’m stupefied. I wonder what that tells us about other battleground states.”
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This must be an excerpt from How to Win Friends and Influence People:
Last weekend, Salter grew upset with what he regarded as stories that underreported the size of McCain's crowds, another potential blow for an underdog campaign struggling to convince voters that it is gaining momentum. A blog written by a journalist had particularly incensed him. He pushed through the brown curtain that separates the candidate and his aides from the media, and stormed toward the rear of the plane. Confronting the subject of his disgust, he leaned into the reporter and upbraided her.
This is, of course, Mark Salter that scolded the reporter for actually doing her job. Another interesting tidbit from this Washington Post story? Apparently, McCain wanted to bring Mike Murphy back into the campaign in July, but his aides - including Salter - nixed it. I guess that goes to show you, who is running this campaign, because it's certainly not John McCain.
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Also, in today's Washington Post, George Will is the latest to heap criticism on the McCain campaign:
From the invasion of Iraq to the selection of Sarah Palin, carelessness has characterized recent episodes of faux conservatism. Tuesday's probable repudiation of the Republican Party will punish characteristics displayed in the campaign's closing days.
Some polls show that Palin has become an even heavier weight in John McCain's saddle than his association with George W. Bush. Did McCain, who seems to think that Palin's never having attended a "Georgetown cocktail party" is sufficient qualification for the vice presidency, lift an eyebrow when she said that vice presidents "are in charge of the United States Senate"?
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A new University of Texas Poll finds that Obama is only trailing McCain by eleven points - since the media now refers to Pennsylvania as a battleground, are we going to do the same for Texas? Also, 23% of Texans still believe Obama is a Muslim:
A poll that the University of Texas will release today shows that 23 percent of Texans think Democratic presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama is a Muslim. Less than half of respondents — 45 percent — correctly identified him as a Protestant.
The poll, conducted by UT's Texas Politics Project and Department of Government, also shows GOP nominee Sen. John McCain leading Obama in the state 51 percent to 40 percent, and shows Republican U.S. Sen. John Cornyn ahead of Democratic challenger Rick Noriega 45 percent to 36 percent.
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Jason Burnett, former associate deputy administrator of the EPA, thinks Sarah Palin sounds a lot like Dick Cheney in her views on science and climate change:
Is Gov. Palin preparing to play a similar role with Sen. McCain? She, like Cheney, would be in charge of energy policy. She, like Cheney, supports an expanded view of the powers of the vice president. She, like Cheney, is already distorting climate science to support her preconceived policy positions.
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Obama is endorsed by the Daily Pennsylvanian:
When we endorsed Senator Clinton for the Democratic ticket in April, we expressed concern over Obama's ability to back "Yes we can" with "How we can." In the past few months, he's shown us how.
Also by the Athens Post (OH).
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And, look - I just received an email from Barack!
Tanya --
The next 6 days are going to be the toughest we've seen, and I need your support to reach as many voters as possible.
Will you donate $25 or more today to strengthen this movement for the final push?
This campaign is in your hands.
Thank you for everything you're doing,
Barack
I gave my last donation today. Will you too?
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So what did you think of the ad? I was initially a tiny bit nervous, but I thought it was very effective and it will be interesting to see how many ended up watching. If he got a bump after his convention speech and the debates, I can't imagine he wouldn't get at least a small bump out of this. In my mind, the big news this morning is that Obama may push resources into Arizona - and may even campaign there! I'm so keeping my fingers crossed for that one. What's on your mind?