Nearly 200,000 voted Wednesday in Georgia early voting, and 1,572,293 votes have been cast to date. That is 45% of the 3.3M votes cast in Georgia in the 2004 election and 31% of the 5M current active RVs.
Assuming 175,000 votes today and another 175,000 votes on Friday, Georgia would be around 1.9M in early voting, which is 58% of the 2004 vote and 38% of current active RVs.
But wait! There's more! Number crunching after the jump...
Three things are working in favor of Barack Obama in Georgia.
1. Black voter registration is up.
Voter registration grew by 16% in Georgia from 2004 to today, but black voter registration grew by 24%. Based on state stats, there was a 1.6-point shift in the black voting population from 2004 to 2008:
Black RVs Total RVs Black %
11/2004 1,174,216 4,293,219 27.4%
09/2008 1,445,153 4,978,704 29.0%
Assuming identical voting patterns to 2004, the 1.6-point shift in the voting population should should cut a 7-point deficit (Kerry) to a 5.4-point deficit (Obama). That's without any change in turnout or votes.
2. Black turnout is up -- WAY UP -- in early voting.
Here is Georgia's 2004 turnout by race:
Votes RVs Total
Black 834,331 1,155,706 72.2%
White 2,344,632 2,917,322 80.4%
In 2008, blacks are out-pacing whites in early voting.
Votes RVs Current Turnout
Black 551,094 1,445,153 38.1%
White 953,136 3,176,520 30.0%
No one knows what the 2008 turnout in Georgia will be, but black voters will very likely close the gap with white voters vs. 2004. For this analysis, I'll assume a conservative black turnout of 85% and a generous white turnout, which has been reported down in several conservative counties, of 80%. That would result in total voting by race of:
Votes RVs Total
Black 973,380 1,145,153 85.0%
White 2,541,216 3,176,520 80.0%
Which brings me to...
3. Obama should fare slightly better with white voters than Kerry did.
Only 24% of white men and women in Georgia voted for Kerry in 2004. That's not much. Assume 32% of whites and 95% of blacks vote for Obama and using the turnout numbers above...
Votes Obama McCain
Black 973,380 924,711 48,669
White 2,541,216 813,189 1,728,027
Total 3,514,596 1,737,900 1,776,696
% 49.4% 50.6
... and you've got a real barn burner on your hands. Take white voter turnout down slightly or new Obama voters up slightly, and Obama wins Georgia