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Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/28-30. Likely voters. MoE 4% (10/14-15 results)

President

McCain (R) 45 (44)
Obama (D) 47 (46)

Senate

Dole (R) 45 (45)
Hagan (D) 50 (49)

Governor

Perdue (D) 49 (48)
McCrory (R)  44 (43)

Not much change across the board. But check it out, we have early voting numbers, which is 19 percent of the sample:

President

McCain (R) 40
Obama (D) 52

Senate

Dole (R) 40
Hagan (D) 58

Governor

Purdue (D) 55
McCrory (R)  37

Those are votes in the bank that can't be suppressed and are immune to any last-minute surprise or scandal. I love our chances.

On the web:
Kay Hagan for Senate
Bev Perdue for Governor

NORTH CAROLINA POLL RESULTS – OCTOBER 2008
                                                                 
The Research 2000 North Carolina Poll was conducted from October 28 through October 30, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.


SAMPLE FIGURES:

Men                  284 (48%)
Women                316 (52%)

Democrats            266 (44%)
Republicans          209 (35%)
Independents/Other   125 (21%)

18-29                109 (18%)
30-44                203 (34%)
45-59                191 (32%)
60+                   97 (16%)

White                412 (69%)
Black                145 (24%)
Other                 43 (7%)

Voted                114 (19%)
Not Voted            486 (81%)


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Kay Hagan? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 20%         37%         27%         10%          6%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 57%         37%          6%

MEN                 55%         41%          4%
WOMEN               59%         33%          8%

DEMOCRATS           79%         19%          2%
REPUBLICANS         27%         58%         15%
INDEPENDENTS        59%         33%          8%

18-29               60%         33%          7%
30-44               53%         41%          6%
45-59               57%         38%          5%
60+                 58%         36%          6%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Elizabeth Dole? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 16%         35%         29%         16%          4%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 51%         45%          4%

MEN                 55%         43%          2%
WOMEN               47%         47%          6%

DEMOCRATS           31%         68%          1%
REPUBLICANS         78%         18%          4%
INDEPENDENTS        49%         39%         12%

18-29               46%         49%          5%
30-44               57%         41%          2%
45-59               53%         45%          2%
60+                 48%         45%          7%


QUESTION: If the election for U.S. Senate were held today would you vote for Kay Hagan the Democrat or Elizabeth Dole the Republican?

                   HAGAN       DOLE        OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 50%         45%          3%          2%

VOTED               58%         40%          2%
NOT VOTED           48%         46%          4%

MEN                 46%         49%          4%          1%
WOMEN               54%         41%          2%          3%

DEMOCRATS           85%         12%          2%          1%
REPUBLICANS         10%         85%          3%          2%
INDEPENDENTS        47%         44%          4%          5%

WHITE               32%         63%          4%          1%
BLACK               90%          6%         -            4%
OTHER               84%          7%          1%          8%

18-29               55%         40%          3%          2%
30-44               46%         48%          4%          2%
45-59               49%         46%          3%          2%
60+                 51%         45%          2%          2%

RALEIGH/DUR         54%         40%          5%          1%
CHARLOTTE           47%         49%          2%          2%
GREENSBORO/WS       43%         51%          2%          4%


QUESTION: If the election for Governor were held today would you vote for Beverly Perdue the Democrat or Pat McCrory the Republican?

                   PERDUE      MCCRORY     OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 49%         44%          3%          4%

VOTED               55%         37%          8%
NOT VOTED           48%         46%          2%

MEN                 45%         48%          4%          3%
WOMEN               53%         40%          2%          5%

DEMOCRATS           83%         10%          3%          4%
REPUBLICANS         10%         86%          2%          2%
INDEPENDENTS        44%         44%          4%          8%

WHITE               32%         62%          4%          2%
BLACK               88%          5%         -            7%
OTHER               81%          7%         -           12%

18-29               53%         39%          3%          5%
30-44               46%         48%          4%          2%
45-59               47%         46%          3%          4%
60+                 51%         44%          2%          3%

RALEIGH/DUR         53%         40%          4%          3%
CHARLOTTE           45%         48%          2%          5%
GREENSBORO/WS       43%         50%          2%          5%


QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?

                   OBAMA       MCCAIN      OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 47%         45%          3%          5%

VOTED               52%         40%          8%
NOT VOTED           46%         47%          2%

MEN                 44%         49%          3%          4%
WOMEN               50%         41%          3%          6%

DEMOCRATS           80%         14%          2%          4%
REPUBLICANS          8%         88%          3%          1%
INDEPENDENTS        47%         40%          5%          8%

WHITE               28%         63%          4%          5%
BLACK               92%          3%         -            5%
OTHER               81%          8%         -           11%

18-29               57%         36%          2%          5%
30-44               42%         51%          4%          3%
45-59               45%         48%          4%          3%
60+                 44%         45%          1%         10%

RALEIGH/DUR         53%         38%          4%          5%
CHARLOTTE           43%         50%          2%          5%
GREENSBORO/WS       41%         53%          2%          4%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 02:20 PM PDT.

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