Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/28-30. Likely voters. MoE 4% (10/14-15 results)
President
McCain (R) 45 (44)
Obama (D) 47 (46)
Senate
Dole (R) 45 (45)
Hagan (D) 50 (49)
Governor
Perdue (D) 49 (48)
McCrory (R) 44 (43)
Not much change across the board. But check it out, we have early voting numbers, which is 19 percent of the sample:
President
McCain (R) 40
Obama (D) 52
Senate
Dole (R) 40
Hagan (D) 58
Governor
Purdue (D) 55
McCrory (R) 37
Those are votes in the bank that can't be suppressed and are immune to any last-minute surprise or scandal. I love our chances.
On the web:
Kay Hagan for Senate
Bev Perdue for Governor
NORTH CAROLINA POLL RESULTS – OCTOBER 2008
The Research 2000 North Carolina Poll was conducted from October 28 through October 30, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 284 (48%)
Women 316 (52%)
Democrats 266 (44%)
Republicans 209 (35%)
Independents/Other 125 (21%)
18-29 109 (18%)
30-44 203 (34%)
45-59 191 (32%)
60+ 97 (16%)
White 412 (69%)
Black 145 (24%)
Other 43 (7%)
Voted 114 (19%)
Not Voted 486 (81%)
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Kay Hagan? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 20% 37% 27% 10% 6%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 57% 37% 6%
MEN 55% 41% 4%
WOMEN 59% 33% 8%
DEMOCRATS 79% 19% 2%
REPUBLICANS 27% 58% 15%
INDEPENDENTS 59% 33% 8%
18-29 60% 33% 7%
30-44 53% 41% 6%
45-59 57% 38% 5%
60+ 58% 36% 6%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Elizabeth Dole? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 16% 35% 29% 16% 4%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 51% 45% 4%
MEN 55% 43% 2%
WOMEN 47% 47% 6%
DEMOCRATS 31% 68% 1%
REPUBLICANS 78% 18% 4%
INDEPENDENTS 49% 39% 12%
18-29 46% 49% 5%
30-44 57% 41% 2%
45-59 53% 45% 2%
60+ 48% 45% 7%
QUESTION: If the election for U.S. Senate were held today would you vote for Kay Hagan the Democrat or Elizabeth Dole the Republican?
HAGAN DOLE OTHER UNDECIDED
ALL 50% 45% 3% 2%
VOTED 58% 40% 2%
NOT VOTED 48% 46% 4%
MEN 46% 49% 4% 1%
WOMEN 54% 41% 2% 3%
DEMOCRATS 85% 12% 2% 1%
REPUBLICANS 10% 85% 3% 2%
INDEPENDENTS 47% 44% 4% 5%
WHITE 32% 63% 4% 1%
BLACK 90% 6% - 4%
OTHER 84% 7% 1% 8%
18-29 55% 40% 3% 2%
30-44 46% 48% 4% 2%
45-59 49% 46% 3% 2%
60+ 51% 45% 2% 2%
RALEIGH/DUR 54% 40% 5% 1%
CHARLOTTE 47% 49% 2% 2%
GREENSBORO/WS 43% 51% 2% 4%
QUESTION: If the election for Governor were held today would you vote for Beverly Perdue the Democrat or Pat McCrory the Republican?
PERDUE MCCRORY OTHER UNDECIDED
ALL 49% 44% 3% 4%
VOTED 55% 37% 8%
NOT VOTED 48% 46% 2%
MEN 45% 48% 4% 3%
WOMEN 53% 40% 2% 5%
DEMOCRATS 83% 10% 3% 4%
REPUBLICANS 10% 86% 2% 2%
INDEPENDENTS 44% 44% 4% 8%
WHITE 32% 62% 4% 2%
BLACK 88% 5% - 7%
OTHER 81% 7% - 12%
18-29 53% 39% 3% 5%
30-44 46% 48% 4% 2%
45-59 47% 46% 3% 4%
60+ 51% 44% 2% 3%
RALEIGH/DUR 53% 40% 4% 3%
CHARLOTTE 45% 48% 2% 5%
GREENSBORO/WS 43% 50% 2% 5%
QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?
OBAMA MCCAIN OTHER UNDECIDED
ALL 47% 45% 3% 5%
VOTED 52% 40% 8%
NOT VOTED 46% 47% 2%
MEN 44% 49% 3% 4%
WOMEN 50% 41% 3% 6%
DEMOCRATS 80% 14% 2% 4%
REPUBLICANS 8% 88% 3% 1%
INDEPENDENTS 47% 40% 5% 8%
WHITE 28% 63% 4% 5%
BLACK 92% 3% - 5%
OTHER 81% 8% - 11%
18-29 57% 36% 2% 5%
30-44 42% 51% 4% 3%
45-59 45% 48% 4% 3%
60+ 44% 45% 1% 10%
RALEIGH/DUR 53% 38% 4% 5%
CHARLOTTE 43% 50% 2% 5%
GREENSBORO/WS 41% 53% 2% 4%