I feel like my firstborn is moving out of the house and going to college. It's over. Early voting is all over.
I started this diary series a couple of weeks ago in the hopes that, day by day, I'd be able to point to the numbers and say, "Look! We're doing better than 2004!" I thought I'd find places where Democrats had marginally higher turnout, or where Republicans appeared to have marginally worse enthusiasm compared to previous elections.
But that's not what has happened. Instead, I've been able to point to the numbers and say, "It ain't over of course, but right now, we're blowing this thing wide open. It isn't even close."
And it isn't. Something like 60% of the people who will vote in Nevada have already voted, and unless some inexplicable and unlikely swarm of both Democrats and Independents have jumped on the McSame Express, Barack Obama is up big with possession of the ball heading into the fourth quarter. More sports metaphors available upon request.
Before we get to the final early vote numbers, I want to briefly mention what I witnessed in the two weeks I spent in Las Vegas, and how I think the rest of the country could benefit from Nevada's early voting system.
First, Clark County is an absolute model for what every county and state in the country should do with early voting. Polls are open every day for 14 straight days. Any Clark County resident could vote at any polling location. In Clark, there were 9 "static" polling locations (at malls, big fitness centers, etc.) where polls were open in the same place each day. On top of that there were 9 "mobile teams" and 4 "voting trailers" that moved around the county from grocery stores to libraries to the UNLV campus to senior centers for a day or two at a time based on a pre-planned schedule that was released to the public months in advance.
More than half of Clark County's registered voters voted during early voting, yet there were never long lines or waits anywhere that we heard about. The ease with which a given voter could cast a ballot was nothing short of astounding. For those who decide for one reason or another to save their vote for 11/4, early voting will ensure short lines and happy voters at precincts county-wide.
More than just providing convenient locations and ample opportunities for residents to vote, Clark also provides a model for information dissemination during early voting. I want to commend the Clark County Election Department for their website and the information they release nightly. The website may look a little Web 1.0, but the quantity and quality of information there is top notch.
Yes, it's all fine and good that I was able to take their information and create these stupendous diaries, but more importantly, campaigns benefit greatly from Clark's reporting practices. Not only does Clark provide top line numbers (number of voters each day, party breakdowns, absentee voter totals and breakdowns, etc.), but they also release a file each night that can be imported into an Access database that shows the names (along with lots of other information) of every voter who voted every day. Campaigns can take this information and cross off their canvassing and phone banking lists anyone who has already voted, and thus concentrate their efforts on those who haven't made it to the polls yet.
And yes, it's good for Republicans too: they can spend their time making sure Mickey Mouse and Tony Romo didn't cast a ballot (which they haven't).
So, why don't we all have Clark County's early vote system? No, really. Why don't we? I think we should.
Sure, some smaller and rural counties around the country might not be able to provide the same information on a nightly basis on their websites that Clark does, which is fine, but surely everywhere city halls and/or county buildings and/or community centers can be used as early vote locations 7 days a week for a couple of weeks of early voting. Surely we can take Clark County's example and make it national. It would be good for democracy, good for voters, and good for guys like me who can't get enough of looking at spreadsheets.
I encourage everyone to call your local, state, and federal representatives and election officials and get them on board. 85-90% turnout, which is what Clark County is likely to see this year, is never a bad thing. Unless you're a Republican.
After November 4, lets get to work on this thing and make it happen across the country. Yes we can.
Alright. Thanks for hanging in there with me. Here's your chart porn:
Clark County (Las Vegas/Henderson) takeaways:
- 807,271 voters are registered in Clark County. 52.3% have already voted, including absentee voters.
- Democrats outnumber Republicans 382,807 to 259,975 (122,832 more), or by a 1.47:1 ratio. Democrats out-voted Republicans 1.57:1 in early voting, including absentees. (Among just in-person early voters, the ratio was 1.70:1)
- 57.6% of registered Democrats voted compared to 53.9% of registered Republicans.
- There are 162,235 Democrats, 119,844 Republicans, and 51,349 Independents who have yet to vote.
Washoe County (Reno/Sparks) takeaways:
- There wasn't a single day where Republicans out-voted Democrats. This, in a county where Democrats outnumber Republicans by just 1,286.
- 34,061 Washoe residents early voted in 2004. Just shy of three times as many, 101,604, early voted this year.
- There are a total of 231,470 registered voters in Washoe. 43.9% of them voted early, not counting absentee voters. (Approximately 9% more have requested absentee ballots.)
- About 7,000 more Repubicans have requested absentee ballots than Democrats. Absentee voters will very likely narrow the overall early vote gap in Washoe significantly. This is reflected in the projections below.
Great, but what do you think the actual vote totals are?
Why just Clark and Washoe?
87% of Nevada's registered voters live in Clark+Washoe. The other 13% are very red, but if Obama can carry ~53+% of Clark+Washoe, he'll win Nevada.
What about other states
You'll have to look elsewhere for analysis (one Kossack can only do so much), but here's a snapshot glimpse at a handful of other early voting states:
So then, is this the end of the DINEVN diary series? Nope! I'll do one more the night of 11/3 with updated absentee ballot totals (including hopefully some actual numbers from Washoe instead of the current guesstimates I've had to infer from various news articles). I'll also round up whatever data is available from other Nevada counties.
Finally, I want to thank the folks who have made a point of finding these diaries every night (and especially thank the ones who've offered to buy me dinner if I ever make it down to Hawaii!). You know who you are. Thank you.
One weekend left. Get to work!
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