The stars, the moon, the planets and the celestial bodies all seem to be aligning Kossacks.
In the latest CBS poll (Nov 1), Barack Obama leads John McCain 54 to 41%.
So for all the doubters (such as Rachel Maddow, etc.), who can't believe Obama can be up so much (like the Pew Poll); you may want to stand back and believe. The race is not actually tightening, it's growing!
About 1 in 5 voters in this poll, have early voted, and they support Obama 57 to 38%.
NBC/WSJ (and I'm sure a slew of others) will have their last poll out Monday Evening or Tuesday morning. So it will be interesting to see where their numbers are at (I'm sure it will be high singles or double digits, as all the various pollsters, no longer playing shenanigans, finally try to come in line where they know the true electorate is at/going).
Here's the link, more info below and my thoughts and analysis below:
http://www.cbsnews.com/...
(CBS) With just three days left until Election Day, a new CBS News poll finds that the Democratic presidential ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden leads its Republican counterpart by 13 points among likely voters, 54 percent to 41 percent. That margin reflects an increase of two points in the Obama-Biden ticket's lead from a CBS News/New York Times poll released Thursday
I think one thing that many people should take note. Most of the polls, that give Obama such large leads, usually poll cell phone only voters (Newsweek, Pew, CBS/NYT, Bloomberg, ABC/Washpo, Gallup). Pollsters, like Rasmussen, Zogby, IBD and Newsweek, don't poll, cell phone only voters (besides having more limited, traditional, 2004 "likely" voter models".
Note. The infamous AP poll, that had Obama up 1, interviewed cell phone voters for cover, but conveniently threw them out in their likely voter model (though they were buried in the Obama +9 registered voter number/outcome, they printed at the bottom)
I also think the ABC/Washpo daily tracking poll is the best one, along with the Daily Kos Poll (and also Gallup).
Rassmussen is an excellent pollster. But he plays to many games occasionally to make Republicans look better (as he did early this week). He also seems to lean 1-3 points Republican, while not testing cell phone users, he loses another 2-3 points of the vote.
The Washpo daily tracking poll has a large sample (2000 people), but the ask great questions, and estrapulate a lot of data and answers from their responders. The Kos poll, is great for clear transparency (whether you agree with it or not, the info and rationale is always thier for you to see). http://blogs.abcnews.com/...
Gallup has the large sample, cell phone only users, and the three voting models (which is a measure of transparency in itself).
For the record, Obama is up 9 in todays Washpo/ABC poll, 11, 10 and 10 in the Gallup Reg voter, Old likely, and expanded likely model. Kos had Obama up one today over yesterday, to +7 (and apparently growing), from +5 a couple of days ago.
The party weighting is Democrats +9. And before anyone disputes this, keep in mind, that with registered voters, Democrats are actually up over 14% (vs republicans). As far as actual voters, Pew and Gallup has polled for party ID, and both of them have decided on 9 and 10 percent. So I'm tired of worried dems, and bewildered republicans arguing that "the party ID leans to far Democrat!". No! That's just where it's at!
Early voting is also going great with this poll (as it has nationally) as well:
About one in five voters say they have already cast their vote, either in person or through the mail, and these early voters prefer the Democratic ticket by an even greater margin. Obama leads among early voters 57 percent to 38 percent, a nineteen point advantage.
Once again, Obama is killing McCain on the economy, this time, even more than usual:
The economy is by far the issue of top concern to voters, and they continue to view Obama more favorably on the issue than they do his Republican rival, John McCain. Fifty-one percent of registered voters say Obama would make the economy better, while just 29 percent say McCain would.
Also of note; despite the efforts of Sarah Palin, McCain, Joe the plumber etc. The tax argument is not gaining traction. The GOP has called Obama everything, outside of a child of god (socialist, Marxist, Redistributors, etc.)and it's not working:
On the question of who will raise taxes, the candidates are roughly even: Forty-seven percent say Obama would raise their taxes and 48 percent say McCain would do so.
Hey things are looking good in the polls Kossacks. Obama is up or the same, 6 of the eight daily trackers today; and expect Zogby to rebound, once they see the other trackers and flashpoint polls running away from them.
We on the other hand; have to campaign, run, phone bank, donate, volunteer and try to ensure a big Obama victory (in today's Rasmussen Poll, Obama was only down 7 in Arkansas. Yes! I said down only 7 in Arkansas). As Obama always says, "something is stirring in the air".
Even Charlie Cook (of the noted Cook Political Report), said it today on a special edition of Hardball (that republicans are now talking "sweeping infrastructure, re-alignment changes" and gushing about how "special" a politician Obama is).
An electoral mandate will give Obama the sweeping win, which can usher in the type of legislation that Democrats envision and the country needs (health care, tax cuts, infrastructure investment, energy independence, education, etc.).
C'mon Kossacks, Americans and patriots. Let's make this happen on Tuesday!
The complete poll and CBS PDF file is below:
http://www.cbsnews.com/...