It's the final stretch in what's likely to be the single most-watched election outside the Presidential one. And it's going to be a nail-biter.
The Yes on 8 side has been relentless in pushing Proposition 8 as a necessary protection for children, parading sad-looking kids in front of the camera under threats that they'll be (somehow?) damaged should this Proposition fail. It's an ugly tactic but effective, and opposition to the ban has steadily decreased since it was first proposed this summer.
If we're going to win this, we need you NOW. It's not enough to vote, and to hope that cooler minds will prevail. This one's going to have us at a percentage point or two at most.
Just to let everyone know how tight this race is going to be, let me pull the two most reliable polls and the trends they're showing. First up is the Field, which has a stunningly good record for predicting turnout on California propositions:
The good news is that we're still ahead of the opposition. But for the first time, our side dipped below 50% which is NOT GOOD AT ALL.
Here's the Public Policy Institute:
PPIC shows a similar trend: an increase in support for the proposition and a decrease in opposition. We're still hovering barely above 50%, but the trend lines are not in our favor.
If we're going to win this thing, WE NEED YOU.
- The Yes side is likely to have a strong GOTV effort, especially once churches are factored in. Don't be surprised to see entire congregations shuttled to the polls. Our side doesn't have that kind of captive audience.
- The (hopefully) Obama landslide is more likely to discourage our voters than theirs, since Prop 8 may pull a strong Yes turnout despite McCain's poor performance. Our base is traditional Democratic voters, but we can't afford to let them get apathetic!
- Many voters are still confused over what the Proposition actually
does. Though the language is relatively straightforward, the notion of voting No to support marriage has apparently confused a lot of people.
The solution?
Visibility, visibility, visibility.
And a strong GOTV effort.
We CANNOT win this without you.
Here's the link to volunteer. I'm working with visibility from before the polls open until after the polls close. I need you to join me.
If you're not in the state, it's also not too late to contact people you know in California and urge them to vote No on this hateful, divisive, and discriminatory proposition.
And please check out joshalot's essential No on Prop 8: November 1 Daily Roundup for news and updates about the campaign.