Watching Morning Joe this morning it was obvious that Scarborough was pushing the 'tightening polls' talking point. It was frustrating to see him repeat the idea that the battleground polls are tightening when there is no evidence this is the case. He tried to compare apples and oranges (e.g. a new Mason-Dixon poll with older polls by other outfits) to get the desired result.
Not so fast.
To do a proper analysis of any tightening we should compare the topline numbers for each candidate over time within separate polling outfits. This accounts for different polling methods and the in-house bias. I took some time to do this analysis today with the latest polls available.
Comparisons for 8 battleground states (OH, PA, VA, NV, CO, NV, FL, MO) are below.
Bottom line: Obama is ahead in all the battleground states (he is tied in MO) and has either held or expanded his lead in the last 7 days.
All the data is taken from the RealClearPolitics list of State polls. For 'current' I took any poll where interviewing included any day in the last week (i.e. back as far as Sunday October 26th). For 'previous' I took any previous poll by the same outfit where interviewing included any day in October (no point going any further back I believe). If the polling company performed more than one current or previous poll in the relevant time period I took the average of those polls so that the more prolific companies would not bias the averages.
The numbers below are the averages for the last week (previous October average in paranthesis) for any polling outfit where longitudinal analysis using the above rules was possible.
Ohio = stable 5-point lead for Obama based on 7 polling companies (Mason-Dixon, Columbus Dispatch, SUSA, Ras, CNN/Time, Marist, Quinnipiac):
O 49.3(49.0) M 45.3(44.7)
North Carolina = stable 1-2 point lead for Obama based on 7 polling companies (Mason-Dixon, R2K, Insider Advantage, Ras, Civitas, CNN/Time, PPP):
O 48.4(48.4) M 47.1(46.3)
Colorado = Obama widening his lead from 5% to 7% based on 5 polling companies (Mason-Dixon, PPP, Insider Advantage, Ras, CNN/Time):
O 51.8(49.9) M 44.8(44.8)
Nevada = stable 5-point lead for Obama based on 4 polling companies (Mason-Dixon, Ras, Reno-Gazette, CNN/Time):
O 49.7(49.6) M 44.8(45.0)
Virginia = stable 6-point lead for Obama based on 4 polling companies Mason-Dixon, Ras, CNN/Time, SUSA):
O 50.5(50.7) McCain 44.9(45.1)
Pennsylvania = Obama stable on 52%, McCain gains 3% but is still 7% adrift. Based on 6 polling companies (Ras, Morning Call, Strategic Vision, Marist, Quinnipiac, Survey USA):
O 52.0(53.1) M 43.6(40.6)
Florida = stable 3-point Obama lead based on 4 polling companies (Mason-Dixon, Ras, CNN/Time, Quinnipiac):
O 49.5(49.2) M 46.5(45.7)
Missouri = stable tie. Obama is stuck on 48% and McCain has gained a point but way too close to call. Based on 5 polling companies (Mason-Dixon, ARG, Ras, SUSA, CNN/Time):
O 47.6(48.0) M 48.0(46.6)
I started to do the same analysis for Iowa, New Hampshire and New Mexico but the recent polls are so hugely in favour of Obama that the result is self-evident - Obama pulling away with ease.
Just in case you are wondering - yes I am going to GOTV! I'll be driving voters to the polls here in South Carolina on Tuesday.