Right now, both Mark Begich and Ethan Berkowitz are trailing in their respective races for the House and the Senate. But it is in no way certain that they will lose, because right now there are potentially 100,000 uncounted early votes.
I was at the Interior Democrats results-watching party in Fairbanks this evening, and it very quickly became clear that the results, as shown, simply do not comport with electoral reality. How do we know this? Simple: look at the numbers.
In the 2004 presidential election, around 310,000 Alaskans cast a ballot.
Right now, there are just 215,000 votes counted in the 2008 presidential election.
There is absolutely no way that, in the most hotly contested Alaska House and Senate races in 40 years, that 100,000 FEWER Alaskans voted. That is simply inconceivable.
This means that there are a HUGE number of votes - possibly as much as 1/3 of the total - which are quite simply missing from the tally, and have not yet been processed and counted.
The understanding among Democratic leaders here is that all early votes cast after Oct. 31 have yet to be tallied.
So do not give up hope for Mark Begich and Ethan Berkowitz yet. These races are far from over.
Update: Hard numbers from the Division of Elections:
President:
2004 Total Votes 312598
2008 Total Votes 222841
Senate:
2004 Total Votes 307371
2008 Total Votes 221291
House:
2004 Total Votes 299996
2008 Total Votes 220850