In his latest article, “The Most Important Number on Earth,” author and environmentalist Bill McKibben writes that we may now be reaching the tipping point with climate change. He points to several recent developments that he believes indicate the need for us to “freak out - and get to work.”
Tipping Points
First, there is the melting of Arctic Sea Ice. As McKibben explains, every summer as the weather warms, there is seasonal melting of some of the ice and then in the fall it refreezes. Over the past 25 years ice melt has been growing, and the amount of open water has been steadily increasing at about 1-2% per year. In 2007, however, the summer ice melt accelerated at such a rapid pace that as McKibben describes, “An area the size of Colorado was disappearing every week; the Northwest Passage was staying wide open all September, for the first time in history.” At one time, McKibben writes that scientists were estimating that the Arctic might be completely free of summer ice by 2070; now many are changing that to a much sooner date.
(The ice growth in the fall of 2007 was very high and caused many to claim that perhaps there wasn’t much of a problem, but according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC): In March 2008, thin first-year ice covered a record high 73 percent of the Arctic Basin. While this might seem like a recovery of the ice, the large extent masked an important aspect of sea ice health; thin ice is more prone to melting out during summer. So, the widespread thin ice of spring 2008 set the stage for extensive ice loss over the melt season.)
The second development McKibben cites is the April National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration’s Report showing a sudden increase in atmospheric methane in 2007. He believes one reason for this might be the melting of permafrost in the Arctic (the report says it's too soon to tell if this is the cause). Rising temperatures are beginning to thaw this frozen soil, which contains vast amounts of stored carbon in the form of methane. Methane is an extremely powerful greenhouse gas that is 25 times stronger than CO2. McKibben describes this feedback loop: “The more methane, the more heat, the more methane. Wash, rinse, repeat.”
Then, earlier this year, NASA scientist and climate expert, James Hansen, released the paper “Target Atmospheric CO2,” in which he and other scientists draw a firm line in the sand for CO2 levels. Our current level is 385 ppm and is growing by more than 2 ppm annually. To put this in perspective, McKibben writes that for most of human existence on earth, CO2 levels were around 275 ppm. By the 1950’s this had increased to 315. Many were hoping that we might be able to reach 450 or 550 ppm before we faced serious danger, but Hansen disputes this in his paper:
If humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on earth is adapted, … CO2 will need to be reduced from its current 385 ppm to at most 350 ppm.
So What Do We Do?
McKibben writes that for much of the past decade, individuals and governments were advocating for gradual change - e.g. reducing CO2 emissions by 15-20% in the next 12 years. McKibben compares this to a doctor telling you that you that you’re a little overweight and you need to go on a diet and lose a few pounds.
Now, he argues, the 350 limit calls for a radically different approach. He compares this diagnosis to a Doctor telling you that your cholesterol is dangerously high and that you need to not only change your diet and lifestyle drastically but also begin to pray to avoid the stroke that is surely coming. In his words:
When that happens, you clean the cheese out of the refrigerator and go cold turkey. In energy terms, that would look like this:
- No more new coal plants.
- A cap on the amount of carbon the country can produce - which, in essence, is a tax. [The] upstream producer who mines, imports, or sells the fossil fuel would get the tab… and pass [the cost] on to consumers. Then those consumers would use less, and markets would go to work figuring out all the possible ways to cut demand and boost renewables.
- An international agreement, including China and India, to do the same thing around the world.
Some other parts of his plan include:
• Taking some of the money made from taxing the companies and giving it back to people in the form of a monthly check - to help “buy us all off.”
• Using some of the money to begin a Marshall Plan for reducing CO2 emissions around the world - e.g. windmills in India.
• Investing in infrastructure - both technological and human - e.g. concentrated solar power, new transcontinental transmission lines, community college programs to train solar installers, green jobs for insulating and weatherizing our buildings.
McKibben admits that there are many hurdles to prevent us from reaching the 350 ppm goal. But, he believes one tool that we have in our arsenal that we can all deploy now is the Internet. He advocates using the Internet to spread the number 350 around the world so everybody understands that it represents “a kind of safety, a bulwark against the monsoon turning erratic, the sea rising over their fields, the mosquito spreading up their mountain."
Let the Debate and the Action Begin...
Is 350 really the line we need to draw for CO2 levels? What is happening with Arctic Sea Ice? Would a tax on carbon work and what impact would it have on our economy as well as the global economy? How would we need to innovate our technologies, upgrade our infrastructure and change our lifestyles to not only stop CO2 levels from rising but to also bring them back to 350 ppm? Can the Internet help galvanize the world around a common goal and mission? Is it too late to bother? These all are points that will surely be debated vigorously in the months and years to come, and it’s heartening to see the debate playing out here at DailyKos.
What I don’t think can be debated, though, is the need to take action now at the governmental level and also on a personal level. Whether the argument is reaching 350 ppm, reinvigorating our economy through infrastructure projects and green jobs, making our country energy independent, reducing our personal energy and transportation costs, or using our resources more sustainably and putting an end to the horrific practice of mountaintop coal removal, the common solution points to reducing our consumption and changing the way we power our economy and our lives.
McKibben’s closing words in his article are a strong call to action for all of us:
To be human in 2008 is to rise in defense of the planet we have known and the civilization it has spawned.