While others may be counting the days until George W Bush is no longer President I personally am counting the days until Condoleezza Rice is no longer the US Secretary of State. While a serious situation has been boiling in the Indian subcontinent we were treated to the news that Secretary Rice was playing a recital for the Queen of England. Great. We certainly have some serious tensions in England, right?
Others may disagree, but I think Rice is a doorstop, at best. She appears to aggravate conflicts, rather than solving them. She lectures instead of having dialogs, she criticizes rather than commiserating. Both nations enmeshed in the fallout from the Mumbai terror attack have tough internal problems and conflicting political pressures that could, in a worst case scenario, lead to a pointless border conflict.
The sad thing is that if we had an effective diplomatic agenda I suspect that the Mumbai tragedy could potentially be turned into the catalyst to help resolve some of the many tensions between the two nations. Rather than posturing, as Rice and others have done, some shuttle diplomacy could in theory help the two nations realize their shared interests. How? walk with me...
Let's review some of what has gone on in the region over the last years. India is not the only nation that has been the victim of extremists. It is worth noting that former President Musharaff was the target of at least two assassination attempts and perhaps others that the Pakistani government chose not to publicize. This September a massive truck bomb blew up outside the Marriott Hotel in Islamabad that by one account the President had planned to have dinner at.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/...
Please read that article in its entirety. Note the mention toward the end that after the Pakistani Army stormed an extremist Mosque compound there was a spate of bombings in Pakistan that killed 1,000 people.
Let's go back a bit further, to the 2007 election campaign during which former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto was killed while leaving a campaign event. That followed an earlier bombing that killed 120, but which she survived.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/...
When one adds up all the terror attacks in India and Pakistan it makes for a long list of acts clearly designed to destabilize both governments. Not one, both. The current President of Pakistan is the widower of a candidate killed by extremists less than one year ago. Rather than lecturing Pakistan about what they MUST do in response to the attack in Mumbai, wouldn't it be smarter to shut the hell up and open substantive talks with the leaders of the two countries to work to help them find common ground against what very much looks to be a common enemy?
Who was responsible for the Mumbai attacks? As best anyone can tell at this point it appears to be a group called Lashkar-e-Taiba, sometimes shortened to L-e-T. Who the heck are they? Briefly, an organization that is not supposed to exist any longer, but which does, and seems to have an ambitious agenda.
http://www.newyorker.com/...
What were they up to? A group of ten (perhaps with some local support) who looked, according to someone who saw photos of them, like "Neighbors of mine" invaded India. These appeared to be well-trained and determined attackers, who never believed they would survive. Their targets? A womens' and childrens' hospital? a train station? a Jewish Center? and two luxury hotels. Their goal appears to have been to produce the maximum amount of carnage and disruption, while antagonizing the maximum number of people. Why? Well, probably to try to spark a border conflict or crisis between Pakistan and India. We must ask, why? The best explanation seems to be to distract Pakistan from its current focus on reclaiming the northwest regions of Pakistan that have fallen under the control of an indigenous Pakistani Taliban movement. If the Taliban and its local sympathizers gain control over that region of Pakistan they can help sustain the Taliban in Afghanistan pretty much indefinitely. Oh, and there are al Qaeda still in that region, perhaps including bin Laden. Why would Lashkar-e-Taiba want to distract the Pakistani government? Perhaps because if they are able to do so they would be paid a massive amount of money. Of course "officially" they no longer exist (wink, wink) but they do, under the guise of a humanitarian movement. They represent a threat to all organized governments in the region, except those like the former Taliban government that are sworn allies.
It is not just India that is at risk from such organizations, it is Pakistan itself. If Condoleezza Rice (who has finally arrived in New Delhi today) has a clue she will work to build diplomatic bridges between the two adversaries. Yes this was a terrible event, but it was only one of many, and rather than letting the perpetrators succeed in dividing nations it is time for all the parties to take a longer view and look to their common interests, rather than dancing to the tune of those who wish their demise. The key is to look at what the terrorists hoped to accomplish and do the exact opposite. Granted, the Bush administration has a poor record at being smart about such things, but it is always possible to learn. Alternately, it may be time for some quiet and informal outreach towards Pakistan by the President-Elect through some trusted allies. If he could send Biden to Georgia, surely he could send a surrogate to Pakistan. Unofficially of course. It just seems to me that a President like Pakistan's President Zardari, whose wife was killed by extremists less than a year ago, is very, very likely, if approached in the right way, to prove himself more than sympathetic to finding a way to counteract such violence. I can't wait for January 20th. Events are moving too fast to waste time. Meanwhile Condi Rice stopped in London to play piano for the Queen. It reminded me of Nero playing his violin, while the the Indian subcontinent, well-armed with nuclear weapons, teeters on the brink of catching fire.