Karl Rove's op-ed in this mornings WSJis as light and tenuous as a balloon in a pin factory. In it, he proposes 7 areas of action that the GOP must prepare in order to regain their competitiveness - but notice he (or his editor) very deliberately uses the word 'prepare' in the title because looking through the list, it becomes clear that these are merely tactical reinforcement measures, responses to playing field advantages that the Democrats have amassed, of the type that Rove is famous for mastering but which do nothing to address the biggest strategic challenges the Republicans face: the agenda that their ideas and constituency generate and favor are fundamentally out of whack with the real problems our country faces.
Let's take a looks at Karl's 7 prescriptions, and see if there is anything us Dems have to worry about.
[reposted from BlueBoxCar]
First up, Rove thinks the GOP need to emulate the Dems 'Democracy Corps' to try and identify a marketing approach to sell conservative ideas to the public. This worked really well for the Dems because for a long time polls have shown that the public favors Dem solutions to problems when presented blindly, yet they were unable to connect their message to electoral success. In 2006 and '08 the Dems were finally able to match their re-tooled messages with compelling and qualified candidates and the results have been great. Will the same work for the GOP - will they be able to re-work their marketing strategy and come out on top?
It seems to me that until 2006, they had the best marketing department in the world. They sold tax cuts for rich people to poor people and a war of choice as an inevitable clash of civilizations. They convinced millions to vote against their economic self-interest on the basis of fear - fear of terrorists, fear of gays, fear of liberals. After what we've seen the GOP pull in terms of sheer marketing bullshit these last 30 years, I just don't see how they can expect to top it. It's not just that they've spent all this effort building a durable brand, and that trying to change their image is going to be tougher than selling New Coke, it's that, at the end of the day, the public still prefers the policies of the Democrats. Majorities are against their economic policies, health care policies, foreign warmongering and environmental policies. Majorities are even turning against the only two divisive issues they have left - abortion and gay marriage. Without a major attenuation of their actual policy stances, a new marketing campaign, even and especially a poll-driven one, won't cut it.
Second, Rove suggests a revitalized GOPAC to identify and train the next generation of leaders. Fair enough, except that it seems to me that there has really been no lack of conservative training regimen, from the college republicans to GOPAC, to any number of universities and leadership 'institutes.' And what they churn out are lockstep conservatives who can't think for themselves. If the Republicans really want to identify true leaders, maybe they shouldn't spend so much time 'training' them with dead-end doctrine.
Third, Karl thinks they need to register more voters. Perhaps they'll hire ACORN. Can't really argue with the logic, but the only real gains that can be made is if they register significant numbers of independents who then vote GOP. This will be part of their strategy, so Dems just have to continue to be better and to have better candidates come election day.
Fourth, Rove note's that the Dems get allot of money from organized groups like labor, which pummeled them in independent expenditures. His answer: find more 'efficient' way to collect money. Problem is, the most efficient way to do this is to have huge pools of contributors, like unions, that you can always count on. Republicans have been doing this for years with church networks, but this group can be fickle. I have a hunch that Rove realizes what a problem for the GOP Bush has become, especially with his confession last week that he doesn't take the Bible literally. Christian conservatives are in a tizzy at this belated revelation, realizing that they've been had again. My guess is that the Christian hard right is not going to put full support behind the GOP again unless they get one of their certifiable own on the ticket, like a Huckabee or a Pain. Karl sees that his gravy train is sinking and is now on the lookout for another possible constituency he can exploit.
Fifth, if Karl Rove knows one thing, he knows that if Dems retain State legislature majorities going into the new decade, the redistricting payback is going to be a bitch for the GOP. From what we know of Karl and his tactics, if he personally takes a role in re-building his party than this is definitely one of his priorities. Dems should be, and will be, prepared to fight hard for the seats - but we should also be ready and willing to make Rove's nightmare real once we win.
The sixth prescription is to not only catch up with Dems web 2.0 abilities, but to get a jump on web 3.0 campaigning, whatever that is or may turn out to be. Karl is such a visionary.
His last is a catch-all that includes the inevitable 'ideas' are the 'currency of politics,' that they need to strengthen ties between think-tanks and pols, capture the minds of the young, the Catholic, the Hispanics and the suburban families with their 'principals' and "also put in place the infrastructure that will take that message and amplify it."
The problem here, besides being a mishmash, is that he glosses over the point we started with: the ideas that spring forth from conservative 'principles,' no matter how energetically voiced or freshly packaged, don't help the needs of families, and those families have realized this.
At this point in time, nationally speaking, the GOP can either follow, obstruct, or get out of the way (leading is out of the question). They seem to have chosen obstruction for the time being but at this moment of crisis I don't think that will play well (esp if Obama starts using his pulpit to shame them on a daily basis). The US public has become focused, we are paying attention and the old GOP playbook is getting pretty creaky. On the economic front their principles have failed miserably, and if they don't retool with major concessions to reality on the ground, they're going to get buried and ignored. On cultural issues, the country has moved on from abortion and on gay marriage the tide is turning our way. If the Christian wing doesn't start taking up issues that actually matter to the rest of us, like poverty and the environment, then they will become the Southern rump-base of what's left of their party. In foreign policy, prudence and maturity are winning for now, the Neocons are losing their public venues and going (hopefully) away for awhile. The GOP has to re-connect with realists like Powell (if he'll have them) and forge a consensus real-politic with Dems that unites rather than divides us.
I do think their party will attempt at least most of Rove's prescriptions (because they're either obvious or else ingrained into GOP psyche already), and will ignore my suggestions (maybe the Christians will get behind the environmental movement, but that will only cause them to vote for us, not the other way around), I also think there is one point the Democrats (and supporters) should be aware of and take utmost advantage of where we can: now is the time when the Democrats can become the party of 'keeping us safe.' Obama has very clearly opened the door to Republicans willing to work with his team, but be very clear that this is tactically very smart as it is fundamentally a dividing move. Once the realists are separated from the Neocons and working with us, it becomes very easy to marginalize the rest and stick them with the Republicans. With luck, reduced to only Neocons and Southern Baptists perhaps we can succeed in drowing the GOP in a bathtub. In effect - on both foreign policy and economic policy - the Republicans can be put in the political position we were on Sept 12, 2001 - if WE are smart and start applying the right pressure.