Today, the Senate rejected Roland Burris on the grounds of not having a proper election certificate. It is not the best decision in the world; it is not the worst. From a purely partisan perspective, if Roland Burris takes this seat, it probably hurts the Democratic Parties chances at retaining the seat in 2010- though probably not enough to tip the scales. And from a progressive perspective, that probably is a slight negative to the nation. In the immediate perspective, it would make it much more difficult to seat Al Franken provisionally, which is disappointing to say the least, and from a legal perspective it may well be absurd.
Jesse White may be making a principled stand against the taint of his Governor. He may be playing politics, attempting to curry good will with voters for personal gain. Nobody knows these things. What is a abundantly clear, however, is that White is operating from a various tenuous legal place- he probably does not have the authority to withhold his signature, and it is in no way clear that his signature is actually required. This will be decided by the Supreme Court of Illinois, one suspects rather soon.
Unfortunately, Al Franken also does not have an election certificate; Minnesota law requires a seven day wait between the Canvass Board certification, and the issuing of the certificate. However, even then, it seems most likely that Governor Pawlenty will not sign one, on the grounds that the law implies (probably) that he can't until any election contests are resolved. In any case, unless Coleman concedes, Franken probably will not have an election certificate in the next two weeks at the earliest, as the court in MN will have to role on a) any Coleman contest and b) whether Pawlenty can withhold his signature.
It is possible that Harry Reid is fine with this- as noted by Nate Silver, it is better for the Democratic Caucus if neither of the two is seated than if one is, and Reid may be banking on not being able to seat Franken until Blagojevich is out, and thinking that if White still hasn't signed, Pat Quinn will be able to withdraw the appointment. This argument may hold some water, but in any case, with the decision not seat Burris on the grounds of not having what may or may not be a proper election certificate, it would look ridiculous and ought to be illegal if Franken is then seated while he certainly does not have one.
Thus, the following scenarios probably exists:
- Franken recieves a certificate before Blago is impeached or after White is compelled to sign; Burris is then seated immediately for the benefit of filibuster busting
- White is compelled to sign before Franken wins; Burris is referred to the rules committee. Burris will likely be able to survive the Rules committee, and would probably prevail in court if Quinn tries to revoke the appointment at this point.
- Blago is impeached before Franken gets his certificate and before Jesse White is compelled to sign. I suspect Quinn then can withdraw the appointment, and that someone else receives the seat.
Unfortunately for the Democratic Party and the Senate caucus, The likelihood of these scenarios is probably 2-1-3, which means Burris will probably end up with the seat.
This however, is, probably the best for the Senate in a non-partisan perspective. There is no legal reason that doesn't set a dangerous precedent for not seating Burris, and thus he ought to be seated now, even if the appointment ought never to have happened in the first place.