3 years ago, when US official unemployment figures were at 4.6%, Colman published a diary demonstrating that unemployment could easily be calculated to be, then, above 13%, as made visible in this graph:
Now the first 3 items, together, constitute was is know as "U6", which was then at 8.4%. U6 is now, as of December, at 13.5%. Which means that, if you re-do Colman's calculations, which add at least 5% to the unemployment rate, you get a number around 18.5%. Given that it's highly unlikely that employment rates amongst workers with disabilities has improved recently, this can only be seen as a lowball estimate.
So, 20% or so. Will that be enough for governmnt to do something a bit more radical (not to mention more effective) than tax cuts?
Update: some links to earlier original research by bloggers on this topic:
What the jobful get
How the jobs are counted
Where the jobless go...
Soundbite Statistics: the Unemployment Rate
All original research by afew
What's really wrong with the Eurozone labour market? by Colman June 2005
The Party line by Jerome a Paris Aug 2005
Comparing unemployment statistics by Colman Sep 2005
OECD says ET was right about UK unemployment by afew Oct 2005
European Unemployment by TGeraghty Nov 2005
Youth unemployment by Jerome a Paris Jan 2006
Graphic statistics by Alexandra in WMass Jan 2006
More employment statistics by Jerome a Paris Jan 2006
The Inverted Example of Spinning Jobless Statistics by DoDo Feb 2006
Actual facts about the French labor market by Jerome a Paris March 2006
European Employment: Some Good News by TGeraghty Sep 2006
What's unemployment, again? by Jerome a Paris Jan 2007
Fascinating employment and unemployment numbers by Jerome a Paris Feb 2007
CS Monitor: stats are only good when they suit us by nicta March 2007