This isn't so much a discussion of who's at fault right now in the Israeli-Gaza conflict, but on alternate theories over why what's going on is going on. I'd be interested in hearing thoughts from all of you here.
First of all, despite what the Israeli government has said, I don't think this (the current bombing campaign) is about the rockets from Hamas (which I agree are a Bad Thing, to be clear). Nor do I think it's some macabre plot to kill as many Palestinians as possible before Obama is sworn in. So let's leave those at the door for the moment...
From the Israeli side, the desire is to implant in the memory of present and future border states that they will not tolerate harassment by irregular forces who operate under cover of civilian populations.
This was posted by a different diarist earlier tonight, and I disagreed with it for the following reasons. Note: this isn't a call-out; merely a means of expressing where my thoughts came from.
I'd argue the bombings are simply the latest manifestation of a strategy that's been going on for years--to keep Gaza/Palestine from developing a stable government, economy, educational, and trade system. This is what the (right-wing) Israeli leadership fears most.
Now, one might ask why the Israeli government would pursue such a strategy; surely it would seem incompatible with peace?
I would agree.
For long term security; there can never be peace in anything resembling the current situation. However, I believe the people who make these policies (and who command the IDF) believe that as long as the US provides carte blanche (not to mention weaponry), the strategy is a valid one. By the strategy, see above (keeping Palestine dysfunctional).
The reason I don't believe it's about sending a message to neighbors is because with current levels of US administrative support, no message need be sent. If the IDF never left Israeli airspace, Egypt, Syria, etc wouldn't lift a finger. They're already (particularly in Egypt's case) in beneficial (financial) relationships with the US. Even if the US eased back our military support, Israel would still be the only nation in the region with a supermilitary and nuclear weapons.
I don't think the gov't is nearly as worried about their neighbors as they'd have us believe. Of course, this doesn't mean the other nations aren't a concern at all. I just don't think they're the main course. With the biggest ally on the face of the Earth, Israel could almost pretend its neighbors didn't exist.
Almost.
On the other hand, a fully independent Palestine would be a threat on a number of non-military levels (a competing economy, a competing population, a competing nation for limited resources...water in particular). And this is precisely what the government fears most, which is why they're in absolutely no hurry to reach a peace agreement as long as the US allows them to continually demolish Palestine.
If you're still reading, you might wonder where Hamas fits in. Here are my thoughts on them, from the Israeli government's perspective.
I would posit that Hamas is the Snowball to the Israeli Napoleon, much as "Al Qaeda/OBL" was Bush's Snowball for eight years. It allows a justification of intended policies. Every rocket fired is a godsend to those in charge of the IDF, as it can be added to the tally of reasons for retaliation.
Of course, the retaliation is almost always unrelated to the actual rocket firing. That's why hospitals, power plants, police stations, schools, and other necessities of a functioning community are continually targeted. The goal isn't Hamas; if every Hamas member put down their weapons tomorrow, the gov't would have to provoke them into picking them back up.
Israel needs Hamas the way the Bush administration needed Al Qaeda.
As a final disclaimer, this could all be far off, of course. I just think there's more to it than the seeming tit-for-tat between the IDF and Hamas. And I'm still not sure where their (Hamas') goals are in the whole thing (though I don't think it's as simple as wanting martyrdom there either).
And to be clear, I'm against the killing of all civilians--whether by Hamas or by the IDF. As human beings, Israelis, Palestinians, and...well, human beings, deserve better.
Footnote: thanks to Arken for suggesting I turn this into a diary. Again, I'd be interested in your thoughts and a discussion on the matter.