Humorists have the innate ability to seemingly get predictions right by imagining the worst possible things and mocking the impossibility these horrors come to pass. Political prognosticators are rarely correct and often skew their predictions based upon their biases.
What if they were right? I don't mean "horseshoes and handgrenades" close, but dead-on right? Like, for example, Markos, Dec. 2006:
Standard caveats aside (it's early, we don't have a set field, blah blah blah), it's hard to see how Barack Obama loses the nomination barring scandal or the mother-of-all gaffes.
I'm simply going to let his original diary do the talking and tally up points after each bit.
I've been working up a few scenarios given the primary calendar (which isn't set in stone, with states like California looking to move up), and really, it would be Obama's race to lose.
Iowa is right next door to Obama's Illinois, and while Vilsack will win it (getting no boost out of it), the race for second-place will determine the "true" winner. Hillary, for now, appears to be bypassing Iowa. So the early battle would appear to be between Edwards and Obama. A 2-3 finish for these guys, in any order, leaves them in good shape moving forward.
Vilsack dropped out weeks after this was written, so I'll count this as two points out of three possible: any victory wouldn't have bounced Vilsack, and he knew it, allowing "serious" candidates to compete; the race for #2 became a race to win, which President Obama did, providing the momentum to effectively sweep the early contests.
Nevada will be a battle between Edwards and his union allies, and Richardson and his southwestern and Latino base. New Hampshire will be fertile territory for Hillary and maybe Kerry (they hate Richardson because he pushed to insert Nevada into the calendar ahead of New Hampshire). And then South Carolina. With Iowa out of the big picture thanks to Vilsack, and New Hampshire diluted by Nevada, South Carolina may well decide our nominee in 2008. Richardson thinks he can win the state (I'm not sure how), and he, Edwards and Clark will stake their entire bids on the state. But given the state's large African American population, along with Obama's popularity with female voters (yeah, they love him), and it's tough to see how the rest, splitting the dwindling white male vote, can overcome those hurdles.
Nevada failed to provide any excitement for Edwards, as he lost most of his momentum after a dismal showing in New Hampshire. New Hampshire was fertile for Hillary, quickly turning her way in the final days. Edwards did fold up camp after the loss and Richardson bailed after New Hampshire. The idea that South Carolina could decide the election wasn't far off, considering by the time that contest was in the books, President Obama had a small lead (at this early point, it was roughly double) over Clinton. I'll credit three points out of a possible four on this bit.
There's one thing that could put a skid on Obama's fast rise -- an Al Gore entrance into the race. Other than that, I don't see a way anyone stops him.
Swing and a miss. I'll count this as Kos' wild card / throw-away prediction with about 0.5% confidence it would happen. While this should be no points out of one possible, I consider this more of a "bonus" prediction not carrying any potential for loss.
I should break this up into bits, but I want to close it just as he wrote it, with a bit of emphasis from me:
Again, we don't know what the final field will look like, so things can dramatically change. But an entrance into the race would make Obama the prohibitive favorite. If politics is about seizing opportunities, it would seem a no-brainer for him to enter the race now.
What's more, Obama would then be tough to beat in the general. He would very well be the favorite in that race, even against a McCain, and would probably be a net positive for Democrats running down the ballot. So it wouldn't be a terrible thing by any means.
(Tired disclaimer: None of this implies endorsement. I will say nice things and mean things about all these candidates before it's all said and done. As of now, I have no preferences or favorites.)
He did sieze the day, barely two months after Kos divined unto us the path to his presidential victory. I hotlisted the diary that day, figuring it would be fun to see how well he did. For pegging McCain as the opponent, for pegging President Obama as the favorite and predicting the downticket benefits of President Obama on top of the ballot, I award five out of five points.
kos, champ work. I score you at 90.1% accurate, using my hyper-scientific method of scoring, learned from right-leaning pundits - I make shit up as I go and stand behind it unflinchingly.
My thanks to everyone who helped make his prediction our beautiful new reality.
PS. President Obama. Type it in any/all comments, please. It feels damn good.