I live in Westchester County, just north of NYC. It's sort of the protptypical 'suburbia' - Rob and Laura Petrie lived nearby in New Rochelle. I worked there eons ago. It's seen better days. Lots of recent new construction - but it's not selling well.
You have some VERY affluent places like Bronxville and Scarsdale and Larchmont - as well as some not-so-well-off cities like Yonkers (also worked there - downtown: pretty horrid and it hasn't gotten much better since). But much of the County is reasonably well off. Median price of a house when we bought 15 years ago was $309,000.... it probably peaked in 2005 when the median price hit $652,000. The wreck of a house my grandparents paid $12,000 for and my parents paid $28,000 for sold for over $500,000 on settling my Mom's estate (of course I'd rebuilt the whole damn place by then).
In general, this is about as good as it gets. Yes, the uber-affluent places like Greenwich, Rancho Santa Fe and Hilton Head are far 'nicer' but they're small communities. For a still 'diverse' county, Westchester is way up there.
I'm astounded at what I saw today driving around. Some pretty drastic changes in a short time.
more below the fold......
I went out to check out the demise of Circuit City - still overpriced IMO even with 20% off. Was checking out computers and camera equipment. I suppose I should be astounded that such items are priced so low - compared to a decade ago - but truth is that they were still overpriced compared to other places in this dog-eat-dog economy. Funny how computers became 'disposable'.
This store was located near County Center - at the confluence of Cross County Parkway and the NYS Thruway. One of the first shopping centers in the US. What a disaster THAT place is now. Long overdue for an updating, the owners waited a bit too long and the place is now half empty as buildings are rebuilt (the place was constructed on a swamp - some buildings were structurally unsound after 50 years of settling). Whole sections of the shopping center were emptied for renovations - I wonder how long it'll take to refill the place when it's done. I grew up with the manager of one of the stores still there. He was NOT happy with the course of events. One of his employees made a crack about not wanting to be around at night - the place was so empty. Gone are the days suburban Moms had birthday parties at 'Kidarobics' there.
Just north on Central Ave the mass-market steakhouse place is now closed. It had been a Ground Round when I was in college - we spent a lot of time there. It was empty for a LONG time before being rebuilt. This place lasted maybe 5 years. The Office building just south of ther - across from Toys R Us is STILL vacant - and an eyesore after being vacated by Loral Electronics a LONG time ago.
I went through one of the 'less-affluent' villages and was surprised. Lots of new buildings - condos on top, storefronts on the ground floor - a few blocks from the train station. But all were empty. Seems like major construction starts only as the overall economy is peaking and usually grinds to a halt (or barely finishes) when the economy tanks. This village has struggled for years to overcome the loss of the manufacturing plant in its center (worked there for a while in my youth too). THAT place was finally turned into a restaurant and condos - the sales sign is still up after a half dozen years.... I wonder how much of that remains unsold? Nasty Secret - the local stream/river floods like mad every threee years or so - puts the lobby under a few feet of water.
The long time family seafood restaurant on Main Street is gone - sign down, place empty. The old RV dealership on the edge of the village is gone too. Surprised at that - they were the only one downcounty. Used to buy Propane there. Looks like some waste collection place is there now. The old electronics company that moved out 5 years ago is now a self-storgage place and the old lumberyard (had been a coal company before that) finally had a new building put up after being sold a decade ago. Another storage place - not the condos that had been rumored. Not much of a neighborhood for housing IMO - light industrial - but such was the housing boom for a while. ANY site was worth building. Up the hill the car dealership of my youth that had been a Verizon garage was being leveled. Walgreen. How many drug stores can you have in a square mile? Seems absurd.
LOTS of empty storefronts in local stores as I drove around. The Florsheim Shoe place further up in the upscale shopping center is now gone. When did that happen? Another restaurant gone. The small strip mall put up 2 years ago across from the Diner remains empty. The steakhouse it replaced was damn good. I miss it. One of the old bars I knew well in college is now gone..... that place was an institution. What happened? The camera store is now a hole in the wall - a shell of its former self when it had the whole building. The Food Emporium is decidedly grungier than it used to be. What happened there? Yuck.
Now these are not the 'worst' places in Westchester - they're pretty average - or on the higher end......
Back on Central Ave there were more vacancies than expected. Lots of long tenure stores gone. Downtown White Plains had taken decades to recover from the urban renewal bulldozing but had finally come back.
But the Galleria - the original mall - is now hurting pretty bad.... The newer "Westchester' siphoned off the higher end stores. Some comedian has a routine about 'the white people's mall' and 'the black people's mall'.... it's funny - and unfortunately true. You can see it in action here. The place I buy sneakers downtown is still around - but surrounded by empty storefronts. Mamaroneck Ave - once a prime shopping stretch - has been hurting with the malls but had come back a bit. It's really hurting again.
There are a lot of new high rise buildings near the station - condos mostly. Been up for a while and I think most are in decent shape - in contrast to New Rochelle over on the LI Sound. One of the new buildings there was turned into rentals - a lot of Section 8 - just to fill it. Still, Trump's building is supposedly selling, but then he's always good at PR. Reality is another story. I have to wonder though.... know a Fire dept officer in that city. He worries about being able to cope with fires in such high buildings. Never had them above 4 or 5 stories before there. You can see these buildings from the Palisades Parkway in Jersey. The developer has been pushing the places as cheaper alternatives to Manhattan - right off the New Haven Line. He fails to mention that the overhead wires on the New Haven are problematic...... they don;t mention the public housing projects a few blocks away and it's hysterical that the photos of 'local shops' are the fake storefronts on "New Roc City" - man.... whoever thought THAT concept up was a moron... an 'entertainment center for adolescents' - teen aged guys hanging around without any money.... been a couple riots (yeah, RIOTS) over there when the kids got out of control and the cops tried to impose 'order.' The place I used to take my snowblower for service - right near there - is gone. That happened within the last year. And one of the best hardware stores ever - around for decades - disappeared about 5 years back....... the only one left has cinderblocked windows.
But back to White Plains....... the Cross Westchester corridor is lined with office buildings. Didn't notice the "For Rent" signs before.
Port Chester is doing OK - the problems with emminent domain are still costing it - they condemned a lot of downtown for a super mall..... but the Main Street is ok..... big jump in the Hispanic population and they've opened a range of restaurants and businesses catering to their interests. But there are a few empty storefronts now that I didn't remember.
But the Linens and Things there and down the road are empty now and Home Depot is looking for someone else to take over the spot they leased in a new shopping center down by teh Bronx Line. The outbid Lowes - didn't want any competition around after putting most of the local lumberyards out of business... there's talk of staff cuts there. I don't know how Home Depot can cut staff any more. At the closest one, they usually have only one or two registers besides the self serve open and lots of luck finding anyone to help you. Seems like they're saving money by having half the lights off as well. The guy that runs the self-storage place was busy making collection calls. Lots of people behind on their rents. I really should go through all the crap from my parents house - save on the expense there.
More word of layoffs among our friends. Big banking and finance community - more mid level than top. Publishing, Attorneys and Doctors.... people that stay for 30 or 40 years - not the 3 year corporate transfers that made up the white collar community weher eI grew up. Plenty of cops, firemen, mechanics and others too... it's a pretty stable - but still 'diverse' community. A range of housing sizes and prices - and incomes. One of the things I like about here.
Talking with some of our Asst Scoutmasters yesterday. Our Eagles usually come back and help out if they're still around. Most are - living home with their parents.Lots of new college grads are finding NOTHING available..... One's working in the family business - not what he planned. But lots of the parents are out of work as well. The smart ones that planned for it are in OK shape. Some made some drastic field changes but there are far too many 'consultants' scrambling for ANY work. Publishing and Advertising never recovered from cuts a decade ago - many of the 'consultants' there had been living off ever growing home equity. THAT is no longer an option and some are in real trouble trying to meet payments now.
Real Estate stinks. One agent (f/t hard worker - not one of the housewives playing at it) sold TWO houses in all of last year. Even those interested in buying were finding mortgages hard to get. More than a few of the people that bought from her over the past 2-3 years have put out feelers about selling.... forget it. Nothing is moving. If you bought in the last two years, you are screwed. Even with funny money from flipping something else, you've lost money.
One HUGE place - a killer victorian - has been on the market for a couple years now..... at just over a million, it's WAY less than the original asking price..... it really IS a bargain compared to the still far overpriced places people are putting up for sale after losing their jobs.
One friend is twiddling thumbs at work (a moving company - not many people moving now)- but glad to have a job. She'd worked for a contractor a year ago who'd been doing teardowns in Scarsdale. He was buying up places, leveling them and building faux French Chateau McMansions..... he jumped off the Tappan Zee Bridge a year ago. Had a more than a few million in inventory - land and under construction - with no way to pay.
I notice that the once plentiful dumpsters are now pretty rare now in upscale neighborhoods. Our former gardner (I spend more on allergy meds than the Gardener costs if I do it myself) sold off THAT business and started a contracting business 4 years back. Saw him doing a roof down the street two years ago. Found out he went back home - ElSalvador I think - with a container full of building materials and the money to build HIS dream house and maybe even 'retire.' He timed it well.
We were at a presentation on college applications and financial aid a few weeks back. The college official had been in NYC making the tour of private schools there. Lots of questions from worried parents. More than a few don't have enough saved, their income disqualifies them from much aid but they may not have a job in a few months..... (I have to wonder - with the income levels need to pay for private school, why AREN'T they saving for college? That is NOT an expense you pay out of current income......). Little secret - 'need blind' isn't always so need blind...... especially with endowments taking huge hits lately. I still wonder about college. First in my family to go but I suspect I'd have done as well or better as a plumber or contractor. Ran into a fellow alumini in line at the Apple Store.... comp sci major his take was - I could have learned this all on my own and used the $200,000 to set up a business on my own..... Our oldest is interested in teaching - I wonder if the return on our investment will really be worth it in the long run. He'll be ABLE to teach because he won't have any major debt (we saved - and are lucky) but I can't help but think that this is not the best way to spend such a huge amount of money....... well... good thing... being able to pay makes it easier to get in some places. Applications to State University this year are through the roof - though it may take 5 years to graduate with all the cut backs.... you may not be able to get all the classes you need in 4 years.
Now I KNOW that I'm in a bubble of sorts - far from the Bronx Apartment we lived in when first married, nothing like a former Auto Worker in Dearborn looking for ANYTHING..... This IS about as good as it gets in the US...... but things aren't all that good. Another friend working in Nieman Marcus in Manhattan reports that (given their liberal return policies) they are now getting year old handbags are being returned, dresses returned four seasons aftter purchase.... high end expensive items. Even the uber wealthy are hurting.
In the 1920's you had people bulldozing houses here to save on taxes. The house was paid for but they couldn't afford the property taxes. A school Custodian I know says there's pressure on to turn off lights and such - kind of absurd actually. The School System is nickle and diming while still employing far too many administrators at 6 figures. I think they're going to be seeing a lot more pressure. Gone are the days of new computers every few years.... Two friends that are teachers elsewhere have been warned - they're low on the seniority list in their districts and may be cut in the new budget. Suddenly, tenure in NYC doesn't seem so bad in comparison.
Things are changing - and changing FAST....... if this is what I'm seeing HERE I can't imagine how bad it is elsewhere. And tax cuts aren't going to do a damn thing - even for most of the people here. Income taxes aren't a problem for most - and few had enough extra to be making much in the stock market when it WAS doing well.... they're getting killed by local property taxes which keep going up as local communities are hit with more and more dumped by the state and Federal levels.... we see almost nothing in school aid now - it's a loacl problem, not a state one. And being blunt - losing their JOB is their main concern for pretty much anyone. No trust fund babies in my neighborhood.
Random musings and thoughts..... as noted, I expect it's a LOT worse elsewhere, but this is as bad as I've seen it here in MY lifetime.