Washington Post columnist Harold Meyerson returned to his California stomping grounds to report in the Los Angeles Times that in the presidential election last year, "McCain carried just 11 of the state's 19 Republican districts .... Obama carried all 34 Democratic districts and eight Republican ones." I decided to take a look at those eight Republican districts to see what we can glean from them for the 2010 midterms.
(Full disclosure: Meyerson is my cousin.)
As Meyerson points out, these are all exurban districts near Los Angeles, San Diego, or Sacramento. Since long-distance commutes from these areas are not uncommon, the demographics of these areas have changed. They are no longer the white, rural safe-Republican areas they once were.
District: CA-02
Representative: Dan Lungren
Where is it: Sacramento suburbs to the Nevada border
Presidential vote:
Obama 165,617 (49.28%)
McCain 164,025 (48.81%)
Others 6,440 (1.92%)
Total 336,082
House vote:
Lungren 155,424 (49.49%)
Bill Durston 137,971 (43.93%)
Others (P&F, Lib.) 20,651 (6.58%)
Total 314,046
Notes: It would take more than just the 13,378 votes that went to the Peace and Freedom candidate to put a Democrat over the top. On the other hand, Lungren looks surprisingly vulnerable for someone who sought the post of minority leader in this Congress.
District: CA-24
Representative: Elton Gallegly
Where is it: Much of Santa Barbara and Ventura counties
Presidential vote:
Obama 160,738 (50.49%)
McCain 151,678 (47.65%)
Others 5,916 (1.86%)
Total 318,332
House vote:
Gallegly 174,492 (58.15%)
Marta Jorgensen 125,560 (41.85%)
Total 300,052
Notes: This is one of four Republican districts in California where Obama got more than 50 percent of the vote, but Gallegly looks tough to beat.
District: CA-25
Representative: Howard "Buck" McKeon
Where is it: Northern Los Angeles County to Death Valley and beyond
Presidential vote:
Obama 134,222 (49.45%)
McCain 131,201 (48.34%)
Others 6,010 (2.21%)
Total 271,433
House vote:
McKeon 144,660 (57.73%)
Jackie Conaway 105,929 (42.27%)
Total 250,589
Notes: Another incumbent who looks pretty formidable.
District: CA-26
Representative: David Dreier
Where is it: Eastern Los Angeles County and western San Bernardino County
Presidential vote:
Obama 149,249 (51.03%)
McCain 137,329 (46.96%)
Others 5,885 (2.01%)
Total 292,463
House vote:
Dreier 140,615 (52.64%)
Russ Warner 108,039 (40.44%)
Other (Lib.) 18,476 (6.92%)
Total 267,130
Notes: This is one of four Republican districts in California where Obama got more than 50 percent of the vote. Seems like a high Libertarian vote; maybe they could peel off some more Republican votes?
District: CA-44
Representative: Ken Calvert
Where is it: Southern Orange County and western Riverside County, including the city of Riverside
Presidential vote:
Obama 133,535 (49.51%)
McCain 131,003 (48.57%)
Others 5,169 (1.92%)
Total 269,707
House vote:
Calvert 129,937 (51.19%)
Bill Hedrick 123,890 (48.81%)
Total 253,827
Notes: Maybe some hope here?
District: CA-45
Representative: Mary Bono Mack
Where is it: Eastern Riverside County, including Palm Springs
Presidential vote:
Obama 142,305 (51.52%)
McCain 129,664 (46.94%)
Others 4,251 (1.54%)
Total 276,220
House vote:
Bono Mack 155,156 (58.29%)
Julie Bornstein 111,026 (41.71%)
Total 266,182
Notes: This is one of four Republican districts in California where Obama got more than 50 percent of the vote. Bono Mack (widow of the late Sonny) is very conservative on most issues, but she does support restoration of the Salton Sea -- the major environmental issue in the district.
District: CA-48
Representative: John Campbell
Where is it: Central and coastal Orange County
Presidential vote:
Obama 163,063 (49.30%)
McCain 160,584 (48.55%)
Others 7,091 (2.14%)
Total 330,738
House vote:
Campbell 171,658 (55.61%)
Steve Young 125,537 (40.67%)
Other (Lib.) 11,507 (3.73%)
Total 308,702
Notes: Not much hope here, but this is perhaps the most surprising district for Obama to win, as Meyerson points out.
District: CA-50
Representative: Brian Bilbray
Where is it: Northern San Diego County
Presidential vote:
Obama 172,962 (51.26%)
McCain 158,845 (47.08%)
Others 5,616 (1.66%)
Total 337,423
House vote:
Bilbray 157,502 (50.24%)
Nick Leibham 141,635 (45.18%)
Other (Lib.) 14,365 (4.58%)
Total 313,502
Notes: This is one of four Republican districts in California where Obama got more than 50 percent of the vote. Bilbray, who first won this seat in a special election to succeed ethically challenged Randy "Duke" Cunningham, just barely passed the 50% mark.
It doesn't look as if many (or any) of these seats are likely to turn around next year. However, as Meyerson says, "it may take several elections, some incumbent retirements and the carefully targeted intervention of Obama's volunteer legions." We're also getting help, he says, from the Republicans' own actions -- in both Washington and Sacramento -- to oppose anything Democrats propose.
These districts remind me of CA-11, which includes rural Santa Clara County, suburban East Bay, and parts of San Joaquin County not including the city of Stockton -- more or less within commuting distance of larger Bay Area cities. It's a gerrymandered monstrosity that was meant to be a safe Republican seat. However, Rep. Richard Pombo's radical anti-environmentalism and other problems allowed him to be picked off in 2006 by energy scientist Jerry McNerney. McNerney easily won re-election last year.
I want to thank Swing State Project for compiling presidential election results by Congressional district: spreadsheet, articles.
Other sources: