Iran's former president Mohammad Khatami is to withdraw his candidacy from the country's June presidential election, the BBC understands.
Mr Khatami was president of Iran from 1997-2005 and was succeeded by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a conservative.
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All eyes are now on Mir Hossein Mousavi.
Mr Khatami is now expected to endorse former Prime Minister Mir Hossein Mousavi.
Khatami had already indicated he might drop out. He had said his heart was not in it this time and it was clear he wouldn't generate the excitement that he did back in 1997. Even though he accomplished a lot during his presidency, he was successfully cast as a failure by the hardliners... This was thanks to none other than George W Bush who completely ignored historic gestures of peace from the Iranian president. (Offers of cooperation in Iraq, putting support for Hezbollah on the table, offering to exchange Al Qaeda detainees for MEK terrorists, and perhaps most tragic of all halting Uranium enrichment for 2 years without the slightest credit from BushCo). The lack of reciprocity pretty much made him look like a fool back home and paved the way for Ahmadinejad to fill in the "pride" vacuum with blowhard rhetoric and nuclear defiance.
One other important reason for him to step aside now is the realization that the reformists could screw themselves by dividing the vote. There is no primary in Iran, so everyone is running together. If no candidate gets 50%, there's a run off among the top two. Last time, reformists ran 3 candidates (Moin, Mehr-Alizadeh and Karroubi) which divided the vote and allowed Ahmadinejad to get the second spot in the run off by the slimmest of margins. (Voter abuse was alleged but probably didn't play a significant role as the interior ministry was in reformist hands at the time.)
Ahmadinejad went on to win the second round against Rafsanjani largely on account of people's dislike of the former President and the widespread accounts of his corruption. After Ahmadinejad got into office the Majlis promptly passed legislation barring candidates over the age of 70 to run for President in a move everyone understood to be targeting Rafsanjani.
So he's gone.
However, former speaker of Majlis Mehdi Karroubi, who barely lost to Ahmadinejad in the first round is still running. He would be the only cleric in the race and he is very popular with the rural poor (he outright offered them money at one point in 2005). So, dividing of votes is still a very real possiblity. Especially since the other side (hardliners) are extremely disciplined. Probably the strongest hardliner, Ali Larjani who is perhaps Iran's most influential strategic thinker in foreign policy and usually outshines Ahmadinejad in public forums has announced he will not be seeking the Presidency this time. My guess is that Tehran Mayor Mohammad Ghalibaf who flirted heavily with Western campaign style last time will also not challenge Ahmadinejad.
As for Mir Hossein Mousavi, he's considered a pleasant surprise a kind of "blast from the past". He has the distinction of being Iran's last prime minister, but he's been basically AWOL for 20 years refusing to participate or even comment on politics. Until now...
Former Iranian Prime Minister Mir Hossein Musavi has impeccable revolutionary credentials and is widely considered to be an honest politician. An architect by profession, as well as a painter, Musavi is also a member of Iran’s Expediency Council and the head of the Iranian Academy of Arts.
He is widely respected for the way he managed the country during the 1980-1988 war with Iraq.
Musavi now says that issues that had prevented him from running for president previously have now convinced him that his presence is necessary.
Mousavi is quiet and contemplative by nature. He would cut a very sharp contrast to Ahmadinejad. He isn't known as someone who seeks the limelight. He's an architect and an artist. Interestingly, he belongs to Iran's largest ethnic minority, the Azeris (even more interestingly, the supreme spiritual leader Ali Khamenei is part of the same minority).
Mousavi considered a reformist although he's never articulated any reform program in depth. Mousavi is a policy wild card especially when it comes to Iran/US relations. His tenure in the 80s was marked by bitter memories, mounting war casualties, chemical attacks and gross inflation. But in Iranian circles he's usually cut a lot slack and seen as someone who did the best with the situation. Still, at some level, I'm sure he's bitter against the US which enabled every single one of the aforementioned disasters for Iran. I would not expect a "vote for me and I will open relations with the US" campaign. That actually could help him get the war veteran constituency away from Ahmadinejad.
Note: My 5-part series on the 2005 elections.
[UPDATE] xysea points to an excellent article in yesterday's NY Times by Roger Cohen (recently returned from Iran) which sheds some light on the country's atmosphere with a bit of the Chas Freeman controversy included at the end. Here's a taste:
I have, in a series of columns, and as a cautionary warning against the misguided view of Iran as nothing but a society of mad mullah terrorists bent on nukes, been examining distinctive characteristics of Persian society.
Iran — as compared with Arab countries including Syria, Saudi Arabia and Egypt — has an old itch for representative government, evident in the 1906 Constitutional Revolution. The June presidential vote will be a genuine contest by the region’s admittedly low standards. This is the Middle East’s least undemocratic state outside Israel.