The 2010 Georgia gubernatorial race is looking to be a real circus, as is wont in this red-with-blue-polka-dots state.
The Republicans have five declared candidates, the Democrats have two, and there’s one from the Libertarian party.
Standing in the wings are a dozen potential candidates.
A run-off election seems inevitable.
Here’s the slate so far:
Announced Republican candidates:
Karen Handel, Secretary of State
Casey Cagle, Lieutenant Governor
John Oxendine, State Insurance Commissioner
Austin Scott, Georgia State Representative
Ray McBerry, who ran in the 2006 Republican primary
Potential Republican candidates:
Eric Johnson, President Pro Tempore of the Senate
Jack Kingston, U.S. Representative
Sam Olens, Cobb County commission Chairman
Lynn Westmoreland, U.S. Representative
Announced Libertarian candidate:
John Monds, President of the Grady County NAACP
Announced Democrat candidates:
David Poythress, former Secretary of State and state Commissioner of Labor
Thurbert Baker, Attorney General
Potential Democrat candidates
Jim Butler, trial lawyer
Shirley Franklin, Mayor of Atlanta
Jim Marshall, U.S. Representative
Michael Meyer von Bremen, State Representative
DuBose Porter, House Minority Leader
Kasim Reed, State Senator
Michael Thurmond, Commissioner of Labor
Roy Barnes, Former Governor
wiki
Hold on – former Governor Roy Barnes? The one who lost to Sonny Perdue in 2002? Yep, that’s the one. Purdue (a former Democratic state senator) beat Barnes by running a grass-roots campaign with limited resources, against the incumbent's overwhelming fund-raising.
-- -- --
After his election in 1998, Barnes set about trying to fix Georgia’s ailing school systems, overburdened roads and highways, and supported changing the state flag to minimize the Confederate Cross.
(1956 – 2001)
(2001 – 2003)
(2003 – present)
What he did was infuriate supporters of the old Georgia flag; support a new perimeter highway north of Atlanta that was unpopular with the rest of the state; raise accusations of political strong-arm tactics in raising $20 million for his re-election campaign; and alienate teachers, a move that many believe was ultimately responsible for his defeat.
Barnes is also credited with beginning the avalanche that crushed the state’s Democratic Party in 2008; despite the Democratic party's record registrations and turn-out (47%) for President Obama, Republicans maintained control of the legislature; all Georgia GOP congressman won; and Sen. Saxby Chambliss was re-elected. Within a few years, both chambers of the General Assembly were Republican-dominated. Among 15 non-judicial statewide offices, Democrats hold only three.
Is it possible that Georgia - after more than six years of Republicans being in control - is ready to go blue? "The state has changed demographically; it’s much more diverse," said Georgia Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond. I don't see that happening, not by a long shot, but I do think we're going to get more blue polka-dots.
Since his defeat, Barnes has been pretty much out of sight. But as reported in the Atlanta Constitutional Journal:
He’s making the rounds of speaking circuits, venting populist outrage over the perceived wrongs of the Republican-controlled Capitol. He’s been in touch with old political allies about the 2010 governor’s race...
But his potential candidacy raises questions: Is the polarizing politician whose crushing defeat in 2002 ushered in the first Republican administration since Reconstruction the man to bring Democrats back? And is a state that has become used to electing Republicans open to change?
Backers argue that Barnes wouldn’t get into the race...if he didn’t think the answer to the last question was yes. But he’s not ready to publicly commit just yet.
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, March 29, 2009
Barnes sure is behaving as if he’s going to run, doing the "chicken-dinner circuit," complaining about "special interests, Republican attempts to do away with corporate taxes while passing legislation likely to raise property taxes on homeowners, and the push to let Georgia Power start charging customers to pay for nuclear power reactors well before they will be operable.
And he’s definitely talking like a candidate. From an interview with The Atlanta Journal-Constitution:
"I just can’t believe what’s happening down there," Barnes said. "The Senate repealed the corporate income tax, but we can’t find enough money to give everyone $200 to $300 breaks on their property taxes. But the rich folk, flying around on their airplanes, we can find the money to take care of them."
"Barack Obama showed we are not as solid Republican in Georgia as some people think."
"I’ve never had trouble making decisions, but this is a tough one. I’m satisfied with where I’m at, but not where the state is."
While not all Democrats support Barnes’ campaign, most Republicans are foaming at the mouth over the prospect of Barnes’ candidacy:
"Anyone who remembers Roy Barnes remembers him for failed education policies, bloated government and brutal, gerrymandered redistricting."
Tim Callahan of the Professional Association of Georgia Educators (the state’s largest teacher organization) said, "many teachers have long memories and haven’t forgiven Barnes for the way they thought he mistreated the profession... If the former governor wants to start with a fresh slate, he’d almost have to start with a mea culpa... I think educators still have bad feelings about that [Barnes] era."
"It’s like a busted piñata looking for a rematch," said Dan McLagan, a Republican consultant who worked on Perdue’s campaign in 2002. "The piñata can’t win, but everybody else will enjoy watching him get the stuffing knocked out of him.
House Majority Leader Jerry Keen (R-St. Simons Island) said, "Republicans should take the possibility of a Barnes candidacy seriously... He’s shown he can raise money; he’s campaigned statewide and won. Those two things make you fairly credible." But he thinks the former governor would have a tough time winning. "Georgia is still a very solid Republican state."
Except that Republicans in general, and Sonny Perdue in particular, are pretty unpopular right now, even with those who put them in office.
Perdue and the Republicans have angered some of the same people Barnes did. Tough budget times have meant school funding cuts and often-skimpy raises — or no raises — for teachers. Confederate heritage buffs put up "Sonny lied" stickers across the state after Perdue didn’t give them a vote to restore the old state flag.
Business leaders have griped about the inability of the Republican General Assembly to come to grips with metro Atlanta’s traffic problems.
Republicans have fought among themselves, just as Democrats did when they were in power.
Run-offs seem inevitable for both parties as more and more candidates enter the race; neither is thrilled at the prospect of expensive, extended and party-damaging elections.
Matt Towery, head of Atlanta-based InsiderAdvantage, has already polled the race, matching Barnes against Cagle, Handel and Oxendine. Barnes narrowly beats Oxendine and Handel and barely trails Cagle with more than a quarter of respondents undecided.
Towery, a former Republican state legislator who served with Barnes, said his polling shows the former governor doing well among independent voters who could swing an election.
"Everything is a snapshot in time. But this is a nation that wants people to do stuff," Towery said.
Barnes v. Cagle:
Barnes: 35
Cagle: 39
No opinion: 26
Barnes v. Oxendine:
Barnes: 38
Oxendine: 33
No opinion: 29
Barnes v. Handel:
Barnes: 34
Handel: 29
No opinion: 37
Inside Advantage
On March 27, Karen Handel, Georgia’s Secretary of State (boo and hiss and Republican) formally filed the paperwork to form a campaign committee. From her press release:
"After prayerful consideration and with the support of my husband Steve, I have decided to run for Governor," Handel said. "I'm looking forward to the campaign." ...I am humbled by the level of support I am receiving from all across Georgia and I’m looking forward to the campaign.
"Our next Governor will face many difficult challenges. I look forward to meeting those challenges with exciting new ideas and a vision that will put us on the path to growth and prosperity."
WSB-TV
Fred Cooper, who will serve as chairman for Handel’s campaign, said (with a straight face), "Karen Handel possesses the qualities that are so important in public service – absolute integrity, exceptional experience, remarkable intelligence, and strong, fair leadership. "She is ready to be Governor; she will be an excellent Governor...I am proud to be on her team."
Who wouldn’t be, with a bio like this?
Karen Handel ... previously served in elective office as Chairman of the Fulton County Board of Commissioners. In the business community she has served as President and CEO of the North Fulton Chamber of Commerce, and held executive positions with CIBA Vision and KPMG. Karen has also served as Deputy Chief of Staff to Governor Sonny Perdue, and in the White House to Marilyn Quayle.
Wow! Marilyn Quale?! I’m impressed. Not. But wouldn’t you like to meet this "shucks, who me?" candidate?
Georgia Legislative Watch
Video: up to 1:08 bashfully talking about running for governor, a week before last November elections.
[BTW, if you go all the way through, the "141 Prior Street" building where the dude would be uncomfortable voting is the Fulton County Building in downtown Atlanta. Oooh, scary!]
The Political Insider nails it:
Handel’s ability to raise a great deal of money is an unknown – the first-term secretary of state has yet to collect a dime for the 2010 contest, while her two GOP rivals, Cagle and state Oxendine, have already raised more than $1 million each.
Georgian Republican women readily acknowledge that the glass ceiling is thicker on their side, possibly because many Christian conservatives with influence in the GOP discourage the idea of female leadership.
Millie Rogers, president of the Georgia Federation of Republican Women, thinks money is another reason. Republicans have no Win List, a group that provides seed cash to Democratic female candidates in Georgia. "Without money you don’t have a seat at the table," Rogers said. Her group is exploring the idea of starting such a fund.
A Handel campaign for governor also guarantees that, in Georgia, the GOP debate over gender and politics won’t end with Sarah Palin. Rogers added that "Handel will be entering the contest at a time when GOP women are feeling particularly resentful."
Part of the resentment stems from the treatment Palin received during the 2008 presidential campaign, and what many Republican women see as the media’s failure to recognize the unorthodox career paths that they’re often forced to take.
It would be poor strategy on Handel’s part to peddle herself as the GOP’s female candidate. And both Cagle and Oxendine have solid records of attracting the support of women voters.
But a natural constituency can provide an invaluable edge in a three-way race. And if nothing else, Handel’s candidacy could give Republican women that seat at the table they’ve wanted — the one that’s often mistaken for a pedestal.
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Sunday, January 11, 2009, 03:00 PM