(Cross-posted at Blue Commonwealth)
It's shaping up to be a HOT Democratic primary for the party's nomination for Governor.
In case you've been asleep, basking in the glow of post-Inaugural glowiness, Virginia has an election this year. The Virginia House of Delegates as well as the Governor's office will be decided.
I've been on this slowly-turning battleship for quite some time now. I'm a lifelong Democrat - and I've lived in Virginia since 1976. Many outside of the state will claim that Virginia is now a blue state, having voted for Obama in the 2008 election and having a string of successful races preceding 2008 (a Democrat as Governor since 2001; one Democratic Senator elected in 2006; a second Democratic Senator elected in 2008; Democratic pickups in the House). But those of us who live here know absolutely that Virginia remains a purple state.
This Governor's race is going to be a HOT one - and the hottest of the hot is running up to the June 9 Democratic primary. More over the fold.
(Note: I support Brian Moran for Governor in 2009)
Three Democrats are vying for the nomination:
Brian Moran
1989 - Arlington County Prosecutor
1995 - Virginia House of Delegates (VA-46)
2001 - Chair, House Democratic Caucus
2009 - Candidate for Governor of Virginia
Creigh Deeds
1987 - Commonwealth's Attorney for Bath County
1991 - Virginia House of Delegates
2001 - Virginia State Senate
2005 - Candidate for Virginia Attorney General
2009 - Candidate for Governor of Virginia
Terry McAuliffe
1980 - Dpty Treasurer, Dir. of Finance - DNC
1985 - Finance Director, DCCC
1988 - Finance Chairman - Dick Gephardt
1996 - National Finance Chairman, Clinton-Gore
1997 - Chairman, 53rd Presidential Inaugural Committee
2001 - Chairman of DNC
2007 - Author
(Note - there are a lot of other investment ventures, law firms, etc. that are impossible to track down, let alone list)
Since shortly after the election in 2008, we Virginians have been hearing about the UNBELIEVABLE funding McAuliffe was going to rain down on the Governor's race and to House of Delegates races. The guy's a cash-generating machine, I tell you:
Virginia is a state with no limits on how much an individual, corporation or union can donate to a candidate running for state office, and some say McAuliffe could wage an $80 million campaign -- triple what Kaine spent four years ago -- if he is the Democratic nominee.
The McAuliffe campaign released preliminary fundraising results for the first Quarter on April 7:
Terry McAuliffe's campaign for Virginia governor raised $4.2M in the first quarter of 2009, his team announced via text message a few minutes ago.
McAuliffe, one of three Democratic gubernatorial candidates, added 2,200 new donors and has $2.5M cash on hand.
All RIIIGHT! 4.2 MILLION dollars (evil laugh - pinky at corner of mouth)!! Add to what he raised prior to this quarter and his fundraising total is $5.2 million, with $2.5 million cash on hand. So... Only 74.8 million dollars to go! With 7 months left until the general election, he'll need to raise about $10.7 million per month to meet the OVERWHELMING CASH ADVANTAGE that was the banner of his candidacy. Given that he raised approximately $1.4 million per month in the first quarter, he had better get cracking. Also interesting - only $760K of that $4.2M came from - you know - Virginians and stuff. That's 18%.
Don't get me wrong. $4.2M is an impressive figure, and substantially greater than funds raised by either of his two competitors for the Democratic nomination. So let's see what that bought McAuliffe.
Public Policy Polling conducted a poll from Feb. 28-Mar. 1 2009 which yielded the following results (Full results here (PDF)):
Terry McAuliffe 21
Brian Moran 19
Creigh Deeds 14
They re-polled Mar. 27-Mar. 29 2009 (full results here (PDF)):
Brian Moran 22
Terry McAuliffe 18
Creigh Deeds 15
Now. I've been at a lot of events lately that have involved a "mixing" of supporters. Those of us who support Brian Moran were pretty cautiously optimistic about the most recent PPP poll. When speaking with McAuliffe supporters (not staff), however, about the poll, I was told that it possessed "questionable internals" and that McAuliffe supporters generally dismissed its validity out of hand. So be it.
Imagine my happy surprise, then, when our very own Daily Kos/Research 2000 conducted not only a poll of preference between Moran, Deeds & McAuliffe - but also theoretical matchups with Bob McDonnell, whom the Republicans will run for the Governor's office. Here's the first thing I loved:
Regarding the Democratic Primary:
Brian Moran 24
Terry McAuliffe 19
Creigh Deeds 16
(MoE 4.0%)
For the hypothetical matchups against Bob McDonnell, I created a single chart:
Brian Moran is within the MoE in his overall hypothetical matchup against Bob McDonnell. The chart shows as well that Brian Moran is the only one of the three Democratic candidates whom a majority of Democrats support. He also enjoys the strongest support in Northern Virginia, a vote-rich must-have for any Democrat in a general election. Even more interesting, though, is his performance in the rest of the state. While he still lags behind McDonnell according to this poll, he does so at a far less steep pace than either of his two opponents (which surprises me, actually - I would have expected Creigh Deeds to perform strongly in this category).
So. $5.2M raised (total by McAuliffe) with $2.7M spent (by McAuliffe) seems to have bought him backwards momentum vis-a-vis his Democratic competitors as well as an anemic performance against Bob McDonnell. Yep - that sounds like Terry McAuliffe's track record, all right - a keen and virtually unparalleled ability to raise prodigious amounts of cash and a shocking and virtually unparalleled ability to spend it poorly on a losing effort.
I wish I could say that McAuliffe simply can't win the Democratic nomination. I'm not foolish enough to think that this thing is over by any stretch of the imagination. McAuliffe is spending his cash on advertising and hiring a whopping 98 paid staffers, whom he dispatches to virtually every event where he wants to post a good showing.
Neither Creigh Deeds nor Brian Moran need to raise the kind of money that McAuliffe is raising. I realize this is controversial statement - but Moran and Deeds have a long history of public service in and to the state of Virginia that will carry them, to a certain extent, to places that McAuliffe must necessarily buy given his lack of any history whatsoever in getting involved in - let alone running for - a statewide office. Should either of Moran or Deeds get the nomination, the funding to take on Bob McDonnell in the general will be plentiful from newly-energized Virginia Democrats. So McAuliffe has to focus all of his energy to getting over the line in the June 9 Democratic primary.
So far, I'm unimpressed. And the clock's ticking.
You can help Brian Moran two ways.
You can donate to his campaign. You could even use my fundraising page to make that donation (it goes through ActBlue). Every little bit counts. He doesn't need - nor do I anticipate he will receive - as much money as Terry McAuliffe (after all - McAuliffe has been raising money out-of-state [AZ, TX, IL, MI, RI, PA, DC, FL, NY 2x, & CA 2x) as well as from what I would consider highly questionable sources). But he does need funding to get him through the primary.
You can also join Organize Virginia. Very soon, there will be a phone-from-home tool (very much like MoveOn's 2006 Calls for Change) where you can make calls for Brian Moran.
I see a shift in the momentum going Brian Moran's way - but we need to maintain it. So thanks for reading, and especially for donating if possible. I know how difficult the times are financially.